Animal Kingdom dominated the derby off slow fractions. His main "edge" going into the Derby was that he was one of the few horses who could run 10 furlongs. I see no reason that Dialed In can reverse that edge. The new "blood" looks interesting and that may be the way to play the Trifecta's and Superfectas. Fast Track: Animal Kingdom. Straight and Strong and make things real interesting in the Belmont.
The Selection: Animal Kingdom
Friday, May 20, 2011
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Preakness Questions
Fourteen horses have passed the entry box for the Preakness Stakes. With Post Positions drawn, here are some of the top questions for each entry.
Astrology: Is he fast enough. Been highly regarded since his 2 year old win at Saratoga. With just two starts this year. Still could be on the improve. Chased a fast pace with a mid-race move at Sunland. Ran evenly in the slop, out kicked by Adios Charlie in the final furlong in the Withers. Recent work tab is ok. Biggest plus is he has a good post and should be able to sit off the speed and make his mid-race move. Biggest negative, hasn't shown the closing kick to finish off top horses in the past.
Norman Asbjornson: Has worked strong one mile gallops all spring. Seems fresh and healthy and has gotten his share of the money in most races. Needs to run faster to win the race. Local connections add to the appeal.
King Congie: Turf to Poly and now trying the dirt. The King has lots of interesting angles. A "partnership" horse won the Derby, with Animal Kingdom, West Point has this "partner" horse. Robbie Abarado jumps on board and he was scheduled to ride Animal Kingdom in the Derby before being taken off the mount. This horse has run on the turf, but doesn't necessarily have "turf" breeding, Badge of Silver and End Sweep are "traditional" dirt sires. Bluegrass stakes was run with a slow pace and finished a head behind. Faced two of the strong speed figures in his 2 year old races, Uncle Mo and Fort Hughes. Not without a shot.
Flashpoint: Have a feeling this horse will receive some support at the windows. Broke slow in the Florida Derby and raced wide. Has run fast and this horses should be the Speed of the speed on the engine and on the pace from the bell.
"Shackleford" Derby effort may have been "pace" biased. Ran on the lead with slow fractions, but the track played kindly to wide sweeping moves and horses off the pace on both Oaks and Derby day. Distance may still not be to his liking. Expecting a regression.
Sway Away: Gets Garret Gomez after an ill-timed ride by Pval in the Arkansas Derby, could be one run closer, or could be just learning to time his move. Strong recent workouts including six furlongs in 1:11 and 3/5 on May 7th at Churchill Downs.
Midnight Interlude: Ran evenly in Kentucky. Strong move on Monday in slop, sits a better trip in the Baltimore and may still have some improvement in him. New jock Garcia will probably be more aggressive and should get a clear run from the 2nd "tier" of horses.
Dance City: This is the "wise" guy horse! The kiss of death. His Arkansas Derby was huge, but may have been misleading inherited the lead after JP Gusto sent ridiculous fractions.
Mucho Macho Man: 3M brings it to the house every time, 6 week layoff may have hurt him in Kentucky, was ridden conservatively by Maragh and finished strong, smaller filed and seems to run all day long, he will make his move sooner on Saturday.
Dialed In: Zito still high on this horse. Never been a fan, seems like a one run horse, small, efficient horse, wins when able to pass a horse quickly, don't see him being able to grind out a win. Will have to make decisive burst and will still be last 1/2 way down the stretch in Baltimore, probably with quicker fractions.
Animal Kingdom: Dominating Derby win, did experience a clean trip. Finished like a horse with lots of upside. Should be sitting around 7th and will try to make his move just like in Kentucky, no timed work in the past 14 days, although a nice gallop on Wednesday.
Isn't He Perfect. Closer has ran in some tough stakes races. New jockey in Edgar Prado may be able to sit back and make a run into the strong fractions. Not a auto-toss by any means, expect a good effort on Saturday.
Concealed Identity: Edmond Gaudet at 80 years old has a Preakness Starter. Won the Tesio stakes as his prep into the race, but seems to be peaking at the right time with back to back wins. Not a fan of the 13 hole.
Mr. Commons: Not a good post position. Strong works, including some distance and some speed works. Ran evenly in the Santa Anita Derby. First time in career facing a double digit field, which can be a daunting task for a lot of horses. Shipping from the west coast and three seven furlong works. May appreciate getting off the "Santa Anita Highway" from this winter.
Questions:
Does Animal Kingdom improve or regress off the Derby: In recent years, very few horses have stayed even. Funny Cide and War Emblem improved. Super Saver last year was listless and ran a very dull race.
The New shooters: Breeding, Pedigree and Running style point to Astrology, Sway Away and Mr. Commons.
Experience: Midnight Interlude will probably run better and Mucho Macho Man is capable of putting in a stronger run.
Possibly Regressing: Shackleford and Dialed In. The Shack has a very funky stride and Dialed In was worked only once in five weeks before the Derby. No works since the Derby, if these are the new training methods, i'm not a fan of the new training methods.
Flashpoint: Overbet Question Mark?
Time to hit the Replays and solve the puzzle. Back with final selections tomorrow.
Black Eyed Suan Stakes: Look for Royal Delta to Romp!
Astrology: Is he fast enough. Been highly regarded since his 2 year old win at Saratoga. With just two starts this year. Still could be on the improve. Chased a fast pace with a mid-race move at Sunland. Ran evenly in the slop, out kicked by Adios Charlie in the final furlong in the Withers. Recent work tab is ok. Biggest plus is he has a good post and should be able to sit off the speed and make his mid-race move. Biggest negative, hasn't shown the closing kick to finish off top horses in the past.
Norman Asbjornson: Has worked strong one mile gallops all spring. Seems fresh and healthy and has gotten his share of the money in most races. Needs to run faster to win the race. Local connections add to the appeal.
King Congie: Turf to Poly and now trying the dirt. The King has lots of interesting angles. A "partnership" horse won the Derby, with Animal Kingdom, West Point has this "partner" horse. Robbie Abarado jumps on board and he was scheduled to ride Animal Kingdom in the Derby before being taken off the mount. This horse has run on the turf, but doesn't necessarily have "turf" breeding, Badge of Silver and End Sweep are "traditional" dirt sires. Bluegrass stakes was run with a slow pace and finished a head behind. Faced two of the strong speed figures in his 2 year old races, Uncle Mo and Fort Hughes. Not without a shot.
Flashpoint: Have a feeling this horse will receive some support at the windows. Broke slow in the Florida Derby and raced wide. Has run fast and this horses should be the Speed of the speed on the engine and on the pace from the bell.
"Shackleford" Derby effort may have been "pace" biased. Ran on the lead with slow fractions, but the track played kindly to wide sweeping moves and horses off the pace on both Oaks and Derby day. Distance may still not be to his liking. Expecting a regression.
Sway Away: Gets Garret Gomez after an ill-timed ride by Pval in the Arkansas Derby, could be one run closer, or could be just learning to time his move. Strong recent workouts including six furlongs in 1:11 and 3/5 on May 7th at Churchill Downs.
Midnight Interlude: Ran evenly in Kentucky. Strong move on Monday in slop, sits a better trip in the Baltimore and may still have some improvement in him. New jock Garcia will probably be more aggressive and should get a clear run from the 2nd "tier" of horses.
Dance City: This is the "wise" guy horse! The kiss of death. His Arkansas Derby was huge, but may have been misleading inherited the lead after JP Gusto sent ridiculous fractions.
Mucho Macho Man: 3M brings it to the house every time, 6 week layoff may have hurt him in Kentucky, was ridden conservatively by Maragh and finished strong, smaller filed and seems to run all day long, he will make his move sooner on Saturday.
Dialed In: Zito still high on this horse. Never been a fan, seems like a one run horse, small, efficient horse, wins when able to pass a horse quickly, don't see him being able to grind out a win. Will have to make decisive burst and will still be last 1/2 way down the stretch in Baltimore, probably with quicker fractions.
Animal Kingdom: Dominating Derby win, did experience a clean trip. Finished like a horse with lots of upside. Should be sitting around 7th and will try to make his move just like in Kentucky, no timed work in the past 14 days, although a nice gallop on Wednesday.
Isn't He Perfect. Closer has ran in some tough stakes races. New jockey in Edgar Prado may be able to sit back and make a run into the strong fractions. Not a auto-toss by any means, expect a good effort on Saturday.
Concealed Identity: Edmond Gaudet at 80 years old has a Preakness Starter. Won the Tesio stakes as his prep into the race, but seems to be peaking at the right time with back to back wins. Not a fan of the 13 hole.
Mr. Commons: Not a good post position. Strong works, including some distance and some speed works. Ran evenly in the Santa Anita Derby. First time in career facing a double digit field, which can be a daunting task for a lot of horses. Shipping from the west coast and three seven furlong works. May appreciate getting off the "Santa Anita Highway" from this winter.
Questions:
Does Animal Kingdom improve or regress off the Derby: In recent years, very few horses have stayed even. Funny Cide and War Emblem improved. Super Saver last year was listless and ran a very dull race.
The New shooters: Breeding, Pedigree and Running style point to Astrology, Sway Away and Mr. Commons.
Experience: Midnight Interlude will probably run better and Mucho Macho Man is capable of putting in a stronger run.
Possibly Regressing: Shackleford and Dialed In. The Shack has a very funky stride and Dialed In was worked only once in five weeks before the Derby. No works since the Derby, if these are the new training methods, i'm not a fan of the new training methods.
Flashpoint: Overbet Question Mark?
Time to hit the Replays and solve the puzzle. Back with final selections tomorrow.
Black Eyed Suan Stakes: Look for Royal Delta to Romp!
Sunday, May 15, 2011
Preakness Ramblings
Entries will be drawn on Wednesday. With a full field of 14 horses expected, the dreaded 13 and 14 posts could prove not kind to the horses who draw them.
More speed is expected in the Preakness. Flashpoint and Dance City will ensure an honest pace and Shackleford will have to rate off the speed, or improve his half mile fraction significantly.
Animal Kingdom will train up to the Preakness with no published works. Graham Motion has trained this way for many years. But still feel it's not the best of signs to "gallop" to the race with no timed works.
Sway Away has been working strongly, his mid race move in the Arkansas Derby was impressive.
Bob Baffert has decided to enter Midnight Interlude, who did not run a bad Derby, and don't forget this horse also has more speed than he showed in Louisville, interesting horse at a nice price.
Astrology, has been overlooked, does not have the raw speed of some of the top horses, but the Derby was not won with speed either. A strong grinder and fresh, Astrology has the pedigree and running style to put in a good run.
Animal Kingdom received a 103 Beyer speed Figure for his Derby Victory. I think this number is a little inflated it may be more of a "98" which puts him just slightly ahead. His pedigree and improvement still points that he should be sitting on a big race in Baltimore.
Mucho Macho Man fires his race every time and should get first run on the speed. A good post and well timed move may have him right in the mix come the turn.
With slow fractions in the Derby there was not a lot of separation in the field, the fact that Santiva, Master of Hounds, Mucho Macho Man, and Animal Kingdom all closed showed that the race came down down to trip and getting the distance.
The best bet on the Card may be the double starting with the Preaknes. In the Derby 20-1 Animal Kingdom with 8-1 Good Lord payed $790. the Daily Double with Get Storm in a 13 horses at 7-1 with Animal Kingdom, paid $350.00.
More speed is expected in the Preakness. Flashpoint and Dance City will ensure an honest pace and Shackleford will have to rate off the speed, or improve his half mile fraction significantly.
Animal Kingdom will train up to the Preakness with no published works. Graham Motion has trained this way for many years. But still feel it's not the best of signs to "gallop" to the race with no timed works.
Sway Away has been working strongly, his mid race move in the Arkansas Derby was impressive.
Bob Baffert has decided to enter Midnight Interlude, who did not run a bad Derby, and don't forget this horse also has more speed than he showed in Louisville, interesting horse at a nice price.
Astrology, has been overlooked, does not have the raw speed of some of the top horses, but the Derby was not won with speed either. A strong grinder and fresh, Astrology has the pedigree and running style to put in a good run.
Animal Kingdom received a 103 Beyer speed Figure for his Derby Victory. I think this number is a little inflated it may be more of a "98" which puts him just slightly ahead. His pedigree and improvement still points that he should be sitting on a big race in Baltimore.
Mucho Macho Man fires his race every time and should get first run on the speed. A good post and well timed move may have him right in the mix come the turn.
With slow fractions in the Derby there was not a lot of separation in the field, the fact that Santiva, Master of Hounds, Mucho Macho Man, and Animal Kingdom all closed showed that the race came down down to trip and getting the distance.
The best bet on the Card may be the double starting with the Preaknes. In the Derby 20-1 Animal Kingdom with 8-1 Good Lord payed $790. the Daily Double with Get Storm in a 13 horses at 7-1 with Animal Kingdom, paid $350.00.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Post Derby
Animal Kingdom proved very strong on Saturday. Here are some thoughts as I watch the replays and read some of the post chat wraps.
Watch the NBC.com Blimp view of the race. Animal Kingdom had the "street sense" trip. Amazingly he never encountered any trouble or had to alter course in the 10 furlongs of the race, if he is stopped or steadied even once on the backstretch it changes the whole outcome of the race. Credit to the jockey, but soometimes things just happen.
For a 19 horse field, it was a well-behaved bunch. They all loaded in the gate without fanfare and a good honest trip for everyone.
The pace was fair for a 10 furlong race, but slow for a Kentucky Derby pace, in recent years fast paces have stopped many horses. This year's crop doesn't have any real "speed balls" the horses new to Pimlico don't offer any speed to that race as well.
Do we need any more proof that speed figures on the poly are a waste of time? I'm not sure if the Animal improved from a 94 to a 103. I think he may have run a 96 and everyone else regressed at the 10 furlong distance.
Nehro has run three strong races in six weeks. With this crop that is the most consistent everyone has been.
10 preps leading up to the derby and the non-favorite won. The Derby makes it eleven. I'm pretty sure the Preakness will make it twelve.
Animal Kingdom shows that a strong outcross of breeding may need what American racing needs to put some new "blood" in the classics. Four generations of German Breeding makes the Animal Kingdom, unique in his own crop.
As impressive as Animal Kingdom was while running wide, the race did play into someone making a strong outside move. The only horse who won on the lead on Saturday was the Baffert first time starter.
14 horses are going to line up in Marlyand, the the popularity of the Triple Crown continues, hopefully nice weather awaits as well.
Watch the NBC.com Blimp view of the race. Animal Kingdom had the "street sense" trip. Amazingly he never encountered any trouble or had to alter course in the 10 furlongs of the race, if he is stopped or steadied even once on the backstretch it changes the whole outcome of the race. Credit to the jockey, but soometimes things just happen.
For a 19 horse field, it was a well-behaved bunch. They all loaded in the gate without fanfare and a good honest trip for everyone.
The pace was fair for a 10 furlong race, but slow for a Kentucky Derby pace, in recent years fast paces have stopped many horses. This year's crop doesn't have any real "speed balls" the horses new to Pimlico don't offer any speed to that race as well.
Do we need any more proof that speed figures on the poly are a waste of time? I'm not sure if the Animal improved from a 94 to a 103. I think he may have run a 96 and everyone else regressed at the 10 furlong distance.
Nehro has run three strong races in six weeks. With this crop that is the most consistent everyone has been.
10 preps leading up to the derby and the non-favorite won. The Derby makes it eleven. I'm pretty sure the Preakness will make it twelve.
Animal Kingdom shows that a strong outcross of breeding may need what American racing needs to put some new "blood" in the classics. Four generations of German Breeding makes the Animal Kingdom, unique in his own crop.
As impressive as Animal Kingdom was while running wide, the race did play into someone making a strong outside move. The only horse who won on the lead on Saturday was the Baffert first time starter.
14 horses are going to line up in Marlyand, the the popularity of the Triple Crown continues, hopefully nice weather awaits as well.
Saturday, May 7, 2011
Animals Crackers
Chaos has ruled the Road to the Roses for 2011. With that in mind i'm leaning for the best bred horses to get the distance. All signs point to Animal Kingdom to emerge from the pack and strut some serious strides down the long Churchill Downs Stretch. Animal Kingdom has three generations of German Mares in his first six generations on the female side. The Broodmare sire Acatenango won 16 of 24 races and was three time German horse of the year. Blushing Groom, Nasrullah, Roberto and Northern Dancer all trace in the bloodlines. Racing wise this horse has shown talent in all four races. In his first race on the synthetic at Arlington Park, he was "outkicked" by Wilcox Inn. In his second start at Keeneland he wired a nine furlong race at 3/5. Five other races that day were won by closers, winning on the "poly" at Keeneland at nine furlongs and showed has has speed to contend. In his last race at Turfway park he made one long sustained run and won going going away. He is slower than some of these horses. I just think he will make one long sustained run and is very live in this spot. Half the field wants no part of 10 furlongs today.
Mucho Macho Man. Been trained old school fro this race with long gallops and two seven furlong works. Ran two nine furlong races as a juvenile.
Archarcharch: Goofy name is a in shape has been in training since December and has thrived the last two months. Another who should run all day.
Boxing those three horses with Shackleford who has been improving and will be sent hard. Shack may fade but may also be able to rate a little behind the speed. Fifth horse in the box is Santiva. Should sit a ground saving trip and goes poly to dirt. Throw out the last race.
Playing all five in Double and in pick threes.
Mucho Macho Man. Been trained old school fro this race with long gallops and two seven furlong works. Ran two nine furlong races as a juvenile.
Archarcharch: Goofy name is a in shape has been in training since December and has thrived the last two months. Another who should run all day.
Boxing those three horses with Shackleford who has been improving and will be sent hard. Shack may fade but may also be able to rate a little behind the speed. Fifth horse in the box is Santiva. Should sit a ground saving trip and goes poly to dirt. Throw out the last race.
Playing all five in Double and in pick threes.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Derby Prospectus March 30
Chaos in the Louisiana Derby couple with the performance of Animal Kingdom in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park. Shook up the bottom half the Derby rankings, but did little to shake out the top contenders. The Florida Derby next Sunday should emerge as the Key Prep, Dialed In, Soldat and To Honor and Serve highlight a compact field of 7 possible expiated for the marquee event in Florida.
#1: To Honor and Serve. Still maintains the top ranking, working steadily since his six length defeat by Soldat in the Fountain of Youth. The Run for the Roses is slowly being reduced to a one "prep" campaign. The small field and the the intentions of Soldat saying they may rate, may put To Honor and Serve on a "loose" lead in the Florida Derby. Gets Garrett Gomez for the first time who is as his best on the lead with a classy horse. No excuses will be allowed in the Florida Derby. Mott may has miscalculated running him two nine furlong races as a Juvenile and bringing him back at nine panels for his 3 year old debut. The number of horses who have came away with a nine furlong win off the bench in the first start as a Sophomore campaign can be counted on one hand in the last 20 years of preps. Mott has had a "cold" barn this spring and he reported on At the Races that To Honor and Serve had put on some weight since the Fountain of Youth. His Juvenile campaign was strong, 2nd best to Uncle Mo and a strong Florida Derby run gives him five weeks to tighten the screws for Louisville.
#2: Uncle Mo: Possible the most lightly raced and lightly worked horse coming into April of his Sophomore season being pointed for the Derby. Has Speed and strong gallop out in the Timely Writer was very impressive. Hopefully Jaycito makes him work a little in the Wood, as that is the only contender that can give him trouble before the 20 horse Traffic Jam known as the Derby.
#3: Anthony's Cross: Moves up mainly because of strong recent work tab. Nice Breeding strong connections. Eoin Harty has been toughening him up lately. Six Furlongs followed by a four furlong bullet. Maybe this is the right Indian Charlie in the 2011 Derby.
#4: Santiva: Being pointed for the Bluegrass. Strong Gallops, has been staying in Florida since shipping back from the Risen Star. Solid Pedigree, good running style, has the ability to rate and the Poly race at Keeneland should be the tightener that he needs before Louisville. Slowly improving from a speed figure standpoint and ran a tremendous race against the bias in the Breeder's Futurity last fall. Horses on the rail that day did well and the outside lanes were up against it that afternoon.
#5 Premier Pegasus: Strong pedigree, looked visually impressive in the San Felipe closing into the hot pace. Old school training, 3 sprints then stretched out nicely has a strong bottom and should get tested on the front end in the Santa Anita Derby by Anthony's Cross. Winner of the Santa Anita Derby emerges as a strong threat.
#6 Dialed In: Nick Zito has been light on the work tab with this son of Mineshaft. But reports say he has been galloping strong 2 mile to 2 1/2 miles in the morning. This horse may prove the right one can close has raw speed and is slowly being conditioned into a "route" horse. Fly Down last year was very similar, lots of speed but one run, was able to stay in the Belmont and ran on in the Travers. Nick mixing it up and trying to figure out the formula. Florida Derby may be tough if the field comes up light and the fractions are "soft" he would like a Soldat and To Honor and Serve Duel, to set him up for the Stretch run. May well see his best race in Louisville.
#7: Astrology: Made long awaited debut in Sunland Park Derby. A P Indy son is always well supported at the windows Sunland Derby showed improvement, raced wide, made a mid-race move and tired late. Few horses have won their Sophomore debuts at 9 furlongs. Main knock has been his "slow" speed figures. But has faced classy animals defeating To Honor and Serve in his maiden breaker, showed a lot of heart in his Iroquois win and then a tough second in the Jockey Club loss to Santiva. Rough to go to Derby with one start, maybe the Illinois Derby would be the perfect spot?
#8 Brethren: I think a strong rebound is likely in the Arkansas Derby much like Super Saver. Tampa Bay was kind to closers on the Tampa Bay Derby day. Pressed a contested pace, fractions were slow, but has in the Meat Grinder from Flag Fall all the way to the second turn. If they can get him to rate in the Arkansas Derby or a less contested pace and he may rebound at a price.
#1: To Honor and Serve. Still maintains the top ranking, working steadily since his six length defeat by Soldat in the Fountain of Youth. The Run for the Roses is slowly being reduced to a one "prep" campaign. The small field and the the intentions of Soldat saying they may rate, may put To Honor and Serve on a "loose" lead in the Florida Derby. Gets Garrett Gomez for the first time who is as his best on the lead with a classy horse. No excuses will be allowed in the Florida Derby. Mott may has miscalculated running him two nine furlong races as a Juvenile and bringing him back at nine panels for his 3 year old debut. The number of horses who have came away with a nine furlong win off the bench in the first start as a Sophomore campaign can be counted on one hand in the last 20 years of preps. Mott has had a "cold" barn this spring and he reported on At the Races that To Honor and Serve had put on some weight since the Fountain of Youth. His Juvenile campaign was strong, 2nd best to Uncle Mo and a strong Florida Derby run gives him five weeks to tighten the screws for Louisville.
#2: Uncle Mo: Possible the most lightly raced and lightly worked horse coming into April of his Sophomore season being pointed for the Derby. Has Speed and strong gallop out in the Timely Writer was very impressive. Hopefully Jaycito makes him work a little in the Wood, as that is the only contender that can give him trouble before the 20 horse Traffic Jam known as the Derby.
#3: Anthony's Cross: Moves up mainly because of strong recent work tab. Nice Breeding strong connections. Eoin Harty has been toughening him up lately. Six Furlongs followed by a four furlong bullet. Maybe this is the right Indian Charlie in the 2011 Derby.
#4: Santiva: Being pointed for the Bluegrass. Strong Gallops, has been staying in Florida since shipping back from the Risen Star. Solid Pedigree, good running style, has the ability to rate and the Poly race at Keeneland should be the tightener that he needs before Louisville. Slowly improving from a speed figure standpoint and ran a tremendous race against the bias in the Breeder's Futurity last fall. Horses on the rail that day did well and the outside lanes were up against it that afternoon.
#5 Premier Pegasus: Strong pedigree, looked visually impressive in the San Felipe closing into the hot pace. Old school training, 3 sprints then stretched out nicely has a strong bottom and should get tested on the front end in the Santa Anita Derby by Anthony's Cross. Winner of the Santa Anita Derby emerges as a strong threat.
#6 Dialed In: Nick Zito has been light on the work tab with this son of Mineshaft. But reports say he has been galloping strong 2 mile to 2 1/2 miles in the morning. This horse may prove the right one can close has raw speed and is slowly being conditioned into a "route" horse. Fly Down last year was very similar, lots of speed but one run, was able to stay in the Belmont and ran on in the Travers. Nick mixing it up and trying to figure out the formula. Florida Derby may be tough if the field comes up light and the fractions are "soft" he would like a Soldat and To Honor and Serve Duel, to set him up for the Stretch run. May well see his best race in Louisville.
#7: Astrology: Made long awaited debut in Sunland Park Derby. A P Indy son is always well supported at the windows Sunland Derby showed improvement, raced wide, made a mid-race move and tired late. Few horses have won their Sophomore debuts at 9 furlongs. Main knock has been his "slow" speed figures. But has faced classy animals defeating To Honor and Serve in his maiden breaker, showed a lot of heart in his Iroquois win and then a tough second in the Jockey Club loss to Santiva. Rough to go to Derby with one start, maybe the Illinois Derby would be the perfect spot?
#8 Brethren: I think a strong rebound is likely in the Arkansas Derby much like Super Saver. Tampa Bay was kind to closers on the Tampa Bay Derby day. Pressed a contested pace, fractions were slow, but has in the Meat Grinder from Flag Fall all the way to the second turn. If they can get him to rate in the Arkansas Derby or a less contested pace and he may rebound at a price.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
March 1 Derby Prospectus
This year's Derby watch had an uneventful February. Uncle Mo is still a No Show. Not much change in my top eight. Until something develops, I'm still leaning top heavy on the number of contenders.
#1 To Honor and Serve: Honesty what was the game plan in the Fountain of Youth? Did Bill Mott not get the memo from last year and Buddy's Saint? When a horse plans a 2-race attack to the Roses, the first start back must be very good. Of course after the loss on Saturday, I started going back through the racing forms. I can find one horse who started in the Kentucky Derby since 1989 who won a 9 furlong race after a 60 layoff after his Juvenile season. The one horse was Express Tour, who won in Dubai. The most similar horses who lost in a 9 furlong debut in their Sophomore season? Well basically the list is filled with Sham and Remsen runners. Empire Make who ran second in the Sham. Proud Citizen who ran off the board in the Santa Anita Derby. Friends Lake, who won the Florida Derby at 30/1 after getting trounced in his seasonal debut. Tapit also rebounded with a win in the Wood following a loss at 9 furlongs off a long layoff. Good horses lose races in many different ways. R Heat Lightning started off the year with a dismal performance, then on Saturday came up big in her 2nd start of the year. To Honor and Serve is good. I'm sticking with him.
#2 Uncle Mo: I want Mo, More Workouts, More Races, More Hype... Well we have enough hype. The Timely Writer? Remember when the Miami Hurricanes used to win national titles and begin the next season playing NE Louisiana Tech, this is what Uncle Mo will be doing in the Timely Writer? I'm not a fan of two race campaigns getting ready for the Derby, even less so of one start getting ready for the Derby. I don't think it's possible to be more lightly trained. He recorded very few published workouts as a Juvenile as well.
#3 Santiva: Was game at the Fairgrounds losing to Mucho Macho Man. Strong breeding and I think has the ability to be taken back farther off the pace and close. Next race still undetermined, but likely the top five from the Risen Star will all get a rematch in the Louisiana Derby. The Fairgrounds surface was very tiring on Risen Star day, no cheap speed horses did any damage all day long. Strong conditioning race for the son of Giant's Causeway.
#4 Soldat: Took advantaged of a perfect trip, on a front-running rail biased track on Youth day. Has a very high running stride and runs with his head very high and does not have long efficient stride. In perfect form. Trainer indicating he may be taken off the pace in the Florida Derby. Talented, may be peaking too soon.
#5 Machen: His Risen Star race is a much better race than looked. He spotted the field 3 lengths out of the gate. Ran wide on the turn, still closed and through in a sub :24 third quarter. With three races and multiple workouts, this horse is sharp, fit and getting better. Look for a jock switch in the Louisiana Derby.
#6 Brethren: Undefeated, Untested and ready for the Tampa Bay Derby. Has efficient stride and has shown the ability to rate and draw off. Speed Figures was slow in last race, but first start was a sub 1:09 on a fast Saratoga trip. This horses has lots of upside.
#7 Mucho Macho Man: Will be one of the few horses with three starts going to Louisville. Long Stride, galloped out nice in the Risen Star. A June 15th foal. Has strong Juvenile form. Lots to like and few negatives. Like the fact he has race on multiple surfaces. Could have a major conditioning edge over a few of the late bloomers.
#8 Sway Away: Great breeding. Will have three preps in Sophomore season, one of the few horses who have made "The Move" his close in the San Vincente was legit. If your not familiar with "The Move" think Monarchos at Gulfstream. Thats the look that Sway Away had finishing fast in the San Vincente, if he is able to sustain "The Move" in his next start! Afleet Alex and Seattle Slew is very close in the pedigree. Strong workouts for over six weeks in 2011. Oaklawn or Santa Anita for start number two. Next race will reveal plenty.
The Next Group:
Astrology, workouts are up to six furlongs, solid foundation, needs to run big in the San Felipe. Jaycito, nice workout tab, ready to race and still could improve off juvenile form. Rogue Romance heading back to Louisiana for next prep, still working his way into shape. May not be fast enough. Gourmet Dinner, runs his race and is making a lot of money! Stay Thirsty, Monzon and Toby's Corner all race in the Gotham this week. Winner advances to the Top 12 discussion. Dialed In. Done nothing wrong, but need to determine his next race first.
#1 To Honor and Serve: Honesty what was the game plan in the Fountain of Youth? Did Bill Mott not get the memo from last year and Buddy's Saint? When a horse plans a 2-race attack to the Roses, the first start back must be very good. Of course after the loss on Saturday, I started going back through the racing forms. I can find one horse who started in the Kentucky Derby since 1989 who won a 9 furlong race after a 60 layoff after his Juvenile season. The one horse was Express Tour, who won in Dubai. The most similar horses who lost in a 9 furlong debut in their Sophomore season? Well basically the list is filled with Sham and Remsen runners. Empire Make who ran second in the Sham. Proud Citizen who ran off the board in the Santa Anita Derby. Friends Lake, who won the Florida Derby at 30/1 after getting trounced in his seasonal debut. Tapit also rebounded with a win in the Wood following a loss at 9 furlongs off a long layoff. Good horses lose races in many different ways. R Heat Lightning started off the year with a dismal performance, then on Saturday came up big in her 2nd start of the year. To Honor and Serve is good. I'm sticking with him.
#2 Uncle Mo: I want Mo, More Workouts, More Races, More Hype... Well we have enough hype. The Timely Writer? Remember when the Miami Hurricanes used to win national titles and begin the next season playing NE Louisiana Tech, this is what Uncle Mo will be doing in the Timely Writer? I'm not a fan of two race campaigns getting ready for the Derby, even less so of one start getting ready for the Derby. I don't think it's possible to be more lightly trained. He recorded very few published workouts as a Juvenile as well.
#3 Santiva: Was game at the Fairgrounds losing to Mucho Macho Man. Strong breeding and I think has the ability to be taken back farther off the pace and close. Next race still undetermined, but likely the top five from the Risen Star will all get a rematch in the Louisiana Derby. The Fairgrounds surface was very tiring on Risen Star day, no cheap speed horses did any damage all day long. Strong conditioning race for the son of Giant's Causeway.
#4 Soldat: Took advantaged of a perfect trip, on a front-running rail biased track on Youth day. Has a very high running stride and runs with his head very high and does not have long efficient stride. In perfect form. Trainer indicating he may be taken off the pace in the Florida Derby. Talented, may be peaking too soon.
#5 Machen: His Risen Star race is a much better race than looked. He spotted the field 3 lengths out of the gate. Ran wide on the turn, still closed and through in a sub :24 third quarter. With three races and multiple workouts, this horse is sharp, fit and getting better. Look for a jock switch in the Louisiana Derby.
#6 Brethren: Undefeated, Untested and ready for the Tampa Bay Derby. Has efficient stride and has shown the ability to rate and draw off. Speed Figures was slow in last race, but first start was a sub 1:09 on a fast Saratoga trip. This horses has lots of upside.
#7 Mucho Macho Man: Will be one of the few horses with three starts going to Louisville. Long Stride, galloped out nice in the Risen Star. A June 15th foal. Has strong Juvenile form. Lots to like and few negatives. Like the fact he has race on multiple surfaces. Could have a major conditioning edge over a few of the late bloomers.
#8 Sway Away: Great breeding. Will have three preps in Sophomore season, one of the few horses who have made "The Move" his close in the San Vincente was legit. If your not familiar with "The Move" think Monarchos at Gulfstream. Thats the look that Sway Away had finishing fast in the San Vincente, if he is able to sustain "The Move" in his next start! Afleet Alex and Seattle Slew is very close in the pedigree. Strong workouts for over six weeks in 2011. Oaklawn or Santa Anita for start number two. Next race will reveal plenty.
The Next Group:
Astrology, workouts are up to six furlongs, solid foundation, needs to run big in the San Felipe. Jaycito, nice workout tab, ready to race and still could improve off juvenile form. Rogue Romance heading back to Louisiana for next prep, still working his way into shape. May not be fast enough. Gourmet Dinner, runs his race and is making a lot of money! Stay Thirsty, Monzon and Toby's Corner all race in the Gotham this week. Winner advances to the Top 12 discussion. Dialed In. Done nothing wrong, but need to determine his next race first.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Derby Futures Pool 1 Bargain or Bust
Today is the final day of round one of the Derby Futures. Let's take a look at this fun yet for me futile attempt at the crystal ball.
Anthony's Cross: Bargain:
Has a strong chance to make the gate. Solid pedigree. Experienced connections with the trainer who navigated Colonel John to the Derby a few years back. Currently over 50-1 and in training.
Astrology: Bargain:
Pedigree alone A. P. Indy by Quiet American plus 100K in Graded Earnings. Steve Asmussen adds to the appeal. Has not raced yet. But has three workouts in 2011. Look for him in the San Rafael.
Brethren: Bust:
Has a nice running style and some earnings. But is currently 16-1, even if he wins his next start he will be close to 10-1 come Derby Day.
Clubhouse Ride: Bust:
Has the right running style, has the experience, but is "resting" to the Santa Anita Derby, may be over the top.
Comma to the Top: Bust:
Nice horse, but he is not going to wire this Derby field, bottom line the other horses are catching up to him.
Decisive Moment: Bust:
Nice horse and his race in the Risen Star was strong considering the track was tiring and slightly favored closers. Would like to own this horse, if spotted in the right races all summer will make a lot of money.
Dialed in: Bust:
Currently 8-1. Nice connections and may very well win the Florida Derby, but if Uncle Mo wins his next two starts he will still be 8-1 on Derby Day and could be undefeated that is how much people like Uncle Mo. Bet him only if you think "mo" will stumble and not make the gate.
Gourmet Dinner: Bust:
The other horses are slowly catching up to him. Gutty, Gritty, but a "Derby Winner" is not going to be named "Gourmet Dinner"
Indian Winter: Bargain:
Good connections, good breeding, worth taking a flyer on.
JP's Gusto: Bargain:
Runs Monday, a win there and definitely could be a top 15 contender. Already has the earnings and has been in training for awhile. Doesn't look like 10 furlongs is up his alley, but has the class and earnings.
Jaycito: Bargain:
Nice Breeding, Baffert Trains, currently over 25/1. Will be much shorter on May 7th, should run all day long, but a bad race takes him out of contention.
Machen: Bargain:
Troubled 4th yesterday. Was his third race in 5 weeks, a solid month of training and switch to a powerful jockey and he can win the Louisiana Derby or the Bluegrass Stakes. Still a nice horse to watch.
Mucho Macho Man: Bargain:
Still 40/1 after yesterdays win. June foal, can improve and will have three preps going into the derby, has the earnings. Not getting respect.
Rogue Romance: Bust:
Nice Breeding, solid connections, lots of graded earnings. But may not be fast enough
Santiva: Bargain:
Currently 50/1. Has the earnings. Solid Breeding, solid return effort over tiring Fairgounds surface in the Risen Star. Still has room to improve and will be under 20/1 come Derby Day.
Silver Medallion: Bust:
Won Slowly run Golden Gate Race, no dirt experience.
Soldat: Bargain:
Buying on the upside before he runs in FOY next week at Gulfstream, but a lackluster race could move him down.
Stay Thirsty: Bust
Runs in the Gotham, strong breeding, but his races leave a lot to be desired.
Sweet Ducky: Bust
Training up to the Florda Derby, will probably have the earnings to get in the field, but has to improve dramatically.
The Factor: Bust
It's a complete guess to how far he can carry his speed. No experience and not exactly distance breeding. Has slop breeding.
Tiz Blessed: Bargain
A large price missed 20 days of training but worked out again on Friday. Not pointing to Fountain of Youth, look for prep and then Bluegrass stakes, has no earnings but a nice pedigree. This one is a longshot, but currently 80/1.
To Honor and Serve: Bust:Bargain:
Even if he wins the FOY and Florida Derby's if Uncle Mo is undefeated he will be the 2nd favorite on Derby Day that means at least 5/1 to play now at 9/1 is not a good bet. Nice horse. Has the earnings and strong breeding. The Bargain is in the exactas a anything besides Uncle Mo and Dialed In is playing large.
Uncle Mo: Bust:
Has the earnings, the Champ until knocked off, but no races this year and you will probably get 3/1 in the 2nd pool. No reason to bet today.
Field: Bust:
A field horse has a strong chance of winning but 7/5 is no very enticing. Runflatout, Cal Nation, Nacho Business, Elite Alex, Cool Blue Red Hot, Premier Pegasus, Sway Away, and about six others could emerge.
So out of 24 horses we have 8 bargains:
Anthony's Cross
Astrology
Indian Winter
J.P's Gusto
Machen
Mucho Macho Man
Santiva
Soldat
Out of those eight horses. Soldat is a complete mystery until next week. JP's Gusto and Indian Winter look short on pedigree. The best value is Anthony's Cross, Machen and Santiva. To Honor and Serve good value over those eight horses in the Exacta Pool.
Also Churchill Downs needs to really focus on getting more horses in the betting slots. The people who keep on saying that all 366 nominated horses need to be eligible is nonsense. Have those horses nominated haven't broke their maidens, no one is going to bet those horses anyways. It's the next 20 horses that need to get involved. With 40 horses, it would still put focus on horses who can win the Derby, but put more money in the pot.
People would get 10/1 on Uncle Mo, and horses like Dialed In would be 20/1. While Horses like Elite Alex would be 80/1 and Caleb's Posse would be 150/1. Instead you get them with the field.
The exacta matrix would be off the chart. A 40/1 wins and a 150/1 runs second pays $20,000 rather than a Field Horse. By adding 20 more horses Churchill would double the pool and be able to market the bet more. Putting all 366 horses in the betting is pure nonsense.
Anthony's Cross: Bargain:
Has a strong chance to make the gate. Solid pedigree. Experienced connections with the trainer who navigated Colonel John to the Derby a few years back. Currently over 50-1 and in training.
Astrology: Bargain:
Pedigree alone A. P. Indy by Quiet American plus 100K in Graded Earnings. Steve Asmussen adds to the appeal. Has not raced yet. But has three workouts in 2011. Look for him in the San Rafael.
Brethren: Bust:
Has a nice running style and some earnings. But is currently 16-1, even if he wins his next start he will be close to 10-1 come Derby Day.
Clubhouse Ride: Bust:
Has the right running style, has the experience, but is "resting" to the Santa Anita Derby, may be over the top.
Comma to the Top: Bust:
Nice horse, but he is not going to wire this Derby field, bottom line the other horses are catching up to him.
Decisive Moment: Bust:
Nice horse and his race in the Risen Star was strong considering the track was tiring and slightly favored closers. Would like to own this horse, if spotted in the right races all summer will make a lot of money.
Dialed in: Bust:
Currently 8-1. Nice connections and may very well win the Florida Derby, but if Uncle Mo wins his next two starts he will still be 8-1 on Derby Day and could be undefeated that is how much people like Uncle Mo. Bet him only if you think "mo" will stumble and not make the gate.
Gourmet Dinner: Bust:
The other horses are slowly catching up to him. Gutty, Gritty, but a "Derby Winner" is not going to be named "Gourmet Dinner"
Indian Winter: Bargain:
Good connections, good breeding, worth taking a flyer on.
JP's Gusto: Bargain:
Runs Monday, a win there and definitely could be a top 15 contender. Already has the earnings and has been in training for awhile. Doesn't look like 10 furlongs is up his alley, but has the class and earnings.
Jaycito: Bargain:
Nice Breeding, Baffert Trains, currently over 25/1. Will be much shorter on May 7th, should run all day long, but a bad race takes him out of contention.
Machen: Bargain:
Troubled 4th yesterday. Was his third race in 5 weeks, a solid month of training and switch to a powerful jockey and he can win the Louisiana Derby or the Bluegrass Stakes. Still a nice horse to watch.
Mucho Macho Man: Bargain:
Still 40/1 after yesterdays win. June foal, can improve and will have three preps going into the derby, has the earnings. Not getting respect.
Rogue Romance: Bust:
Nice Breeding, solid connections, lots of graded earnings. But may not be fast enough
Santiva: Bargain:
Currently 50/1. Has the earnings. Solid Breeding, solid return effort over tiring Fairgounds surface in the Risen Star. Still has room to improve and will be under 20/1 come Derby Day.
Silver Medallion: Bust:
Won Slowly run Golden Gate Race, no dirt experience.
Soldat: Bargain:
Buying on the upside before he runs in FOY next week at Gulfstream, but a lackluster race could move him down.
Stay Thirsty: Bust
Runs in the Gotham, strong breeding, but his races leave a lot to be desired.
Sweet Ducky: Bust
Training up to the Florda Derby, will probably have the earnings to get in the field, but has to improve dramatically.
The Factor: Bust
It's a complete guess to how far he can carry his speed. No experience and not exactly distance breeding. Has slop breeding.
Tiz Blessed: Bargain
A large price missed 20 days of training but worked out again on Friday. Not pointing to Fountain of Youth, look for prep and then Bluegrass stakes, has no earnings but a nice pedigree. This one is a longshot, but currently 80/1.
To Honor and Serve: Bust:Bargain:
Even if he wins the FOY and Florida Derby's if Uncle Mo is undefeated he will be the 2nd favorite on Derby Day that means at least 5/1 to play now at 9/1 is not a good bet. Nice horse. Has the earnings and strong breeding. The Bargain is in the exactas a anything besides Uncle Mo and Dialed In is playing large.
Uncle Mo: Bust:
Has the earnings, the Champ until knocked off, but no races this year and you will probably get 3/1 in the 2nd pool. No reason to bet today.
Field: Bust:
A field horse has a strong chance of winning but 7/5 is no very enticing. Runflatout, Cal Nation, Nacho Business, Elite Alex, Cool Blue Red Hot, Premier Pegasus, Sway Away, and about six others could emerge.
So out of 24 horses we have 8 bargains:
Anthony's Cross
Astrology
Indian Winter
J.P's Gusto
Machen
Mucho Macho Man
Santiva
Soldat
Out of those eight horses. Soldat is a complete mystery until next week. JP's Gusto and Indian Winter look short on pedigree. The best value is Anthony's Cross, Machen and Santiva. To Honor and Serve good value over those eight horses in the Exacta Pool.
Also Churchill Downs needs to really focus on getting more horses in the betting slots. The people who keep on saying that all 366 nominated horses need to be eligible is nonsense. Have those horses nominated haven't broke their maidens, no one is going to bet those horses anyways. It's the next 20 horses that need to get involved. With 40 horses, it would still put focus on horses who can win the Derby, but put more money in the pot.
People would get 10/1 on Uncle Mo, and horses like Dialed In would be 20/1. While Horses like Elite Alex would be 80/1 and Caleb's Posse would be 150/1. Instead you get them with the field.
The exacta matrix would be off the chart. A 40/1 wins and a 150/1 runs second pays $20,000 rather than a Field Horse. By adding 20 more horses Churchill would double the pool and be able to market the bet more. Putting all 366 horses in the betting is pure nonsense.
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
When is it "too late" to join the Derby trail?
An impressive maiden performance by the Todd Pletcher trained Cal Nation on Saturday drew raves from some bloggers and raised questions from others. Is Cal Nation too late on the scene?
My gut instinct was to refer to the curse of 1882 and Apollo as the last Derby Winner, who didn't race as a Juvenile. But in recent years as horses become lightly raced, it is inevitable, that the winner of the Kentucky Derby in the next few years will not have raced as a Juvenile.
With that in mind I started searching past Derby winners to see exactly when did racing "jump the shark" into the current state of lightly raced activity?
Stop searching, you may not like the answer you are looking for, is a line from the original Planet of the Apes, and in this case, it may be true!
Is it possible the success from the top two horses of the sophomore class of 1989 may have contributed to this mess?
Let's enter the way-back machine with Mr. Peabody and Sherman back to the year 1989. Sunday Silence with just three starts as a Juvenile and only one win and no races debuts as a three year old on March 2, 1989. Winning by 4 lengths in 1:15 and 2/5! The Bald Eagle wheeled him back on March 19th in the San Felipe. Sir Charles then tightened the screws three weeks later winning the Santa Anita Derby by a widening 11 lengths. Three races in six weeks and did not run a route rate until March 19th.
Meanwhile back out East. Easy Goer was emerging from a winter of hibernation. After a 6 race juvenile campaign, Shug McGaughey didn't let Easy Goer out of the barn until March 4th 1989 winning the swale stakes by 8 lengths.
By those standards Cal Nation is a full month ahead of schedule!
Another interesting horse on the Derby trail this year is Machen. Never racing as a juvenile and heading towards the Risen Star Stakes on February 19th. His trainer is Neil Howard. Neil Howard trained Summer Squall to a 2nd place Derby finish in 1990. Summer Squall did not race until March 17th of his 3-year old season. With two races and three works in the last month, Machen is weeks ahead in conditioning that Summer Squall was in 1989. Also note that Summer Squall was unraced from August 26th of his Juvenile season to March 17th.
Hansel the 1991 Preakness winner debuted with a 11 length loss on February 23rd in 1990 in the Fountain of Youth. Hansel responded with a 3rd in the Florida Derby before winning the Jim Beam and then the Lexington Stakes.
Best Pal - 2nd in the 1991 Derby did not race as a sophomore until March 3, 1991!
D Wayne Lukas adds fuel to the fire with Timber Country waiting until March 4 for his debut in 1995. Grindstone came off the shelf in mid February 1996 and won the roses in May.
Uncle Mo is scheduled to run his first race on March 12th. Whenever I look at Uncle Mo's past performances, his most "similar" past performances are those of his sire Indian Charlie.
Indian Charlie, ran one race as a Juvenile winning a maiden race by 12 lengths at Delmar. Uncle Mo broke his Maiden by 14 lengths at Saratoga. Indian Charlie won his 2nd race by 9 lengths in a four horse field. Uncle Mo won his 2nd race by 4 lenghts in a 5-horse field. Indian Charlie won his 4th career start the Grade 1 Santa anita Derby by 2.5 lenghts. Uncle Mo won the BC Juvenile by 3 lengths in his 3rd start! Uncanny! Indian Charlie did not debut until February 22nd of his Sophomore season.
Fusaichi Pegasus debuted at three on February 19th winning a NW of 1 allowance.
One may have to re-evaluate the Derby chase. Maybe it's not about seasoning. Maybe it's about striking when the iron is hot!
Who would have thought that waiting on a horse until near March would have been out of the playbook from two of the "oldest" school horseman. Charlie Whittingham and Shug McGaughey!
So there may still be plenty of time for Cal Nation!
My gut instinct was to refer to the curse of 1882 and Apollo as the last Derby Winner, who didn't race as a Juvenile. But in recent years as horses become lightly raced, it is inevitable, that the winner of the Kentucky Derby in the next few years will not have raced as a Juvenile.
With that in mind I started searching past Derby winners to see exactly when did racing "jump the shark" into the current state of lightly raced activity?
Stop searching, you may not like the answer you are looking for, is a line from the original Planet of the Apes, and in this case, it may be true!
Is it possible the success from the top two horses of the sophomore class of 1989 may have contributed to this mess?
Let's enter the way-back machine with Mr. Peabody and Sherman back to the year 1989. Sunday Silence with just three starts as a Juvenile and only one win and no races debuts as a three year old on March 2, 1989. Winning by 4 lengths in 1:15 and 2/5! The Bald Eagle wheeled him back on March 19th in the San Felipe. Sir Charles then tightened the screws three weeks later winning the Santa Anita Derby by a widening 11 lengths. Three races in six weeks and did not run a route rate until March 19th.
Meanwhile back out East. Easy Goer was emerging from a winter of hibernation. After a 6 race juvenile campaign, Shug McGaughey didn't let Easy Goer out of the barn until March 4th 1989 winning the swale stakes by 8 lengths.
By those standards Cal Nation is a full month ahead of schedule!
Another interesting horse on the Derby trail this year is Machen. Never racing as a juvenile and heading towards the Risen Star Stakes on February 19th. His trainer is Neil Howard. Neil Howard trained Summer Squall to a 2nd place Derby finish in 1990. Summer Squall did not race until March 17th of his 3-year old season. With two races and three works in the last month, Machen is weeks ahead in conditioning that Summer Squall was in 1989. Also note that Summer Squall was unraced from August 26th of his Juvenile season to March 17th.
Hansel the 1991 Preakness winner debuted with a 11 length loss on February 23rd in 1990 in the Fountain of Youth. Hansel responded with a 3rd in the Florida Derby before winning the Jim Beam and then the Lexington Stakes.
Best Pal - 2nd in the 1991 Derby did not race as a sophomore until March 3, 1991!
D Wayne Lukas adds fuel to the fire with Timber Country waiting until March 4 for his debut in 1995. Grindstone came off the shelf in mid February 1996 and won the roses in May.
Uncle Mo is scheduled to run his first race on March 12th. Whenever I look at Uncle Mo's past performances, his most "similar" past performances are those of his sire Indian Charlie.
Indian Charlie, ran one race as a Juvenile winning a maiden race by 12 lengths at Delmar. Uncle Mo broke his Maiden by 14 lengths at Saratoga. Indian Charlie won his 2nd race by 9 lengths in a four horse field. Uncle Mo won his 2nd race by 4 lenghts in a 5-horse field. Indian Charlie won his 4th career start the Grade 1 Santa anita Derby by 2.5 lenghts. Uncle Mo won the BC Juvenile by 3 lengths in his 3rd start! Uncanny! Indian Charlie did not debut until February 22nd of his Sophomore season.
Fusaichi Pegasus debuted at three on February 19th winning a NW of 1 allowance.
One may have to re-evaluate the Derby chase. Maybe it's not about seasoning. Maybe it's about striking when the iron is hot!
Who would have thought that waiting on a horse until near March would have been out of the playbook from two of the "oldest" school horseman. Charlie Whittingham and Shug McGaughey!
So there may still be plenty of time for Cal Nation!
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Derby Prospectus February 2011
Now that Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow we can be sure that spring is just 6 weeks away. Let's take a look at the top contenders. Combining Pedigree, Performance and recent activity into our first rankings of the year.
#1: Machen: Quite simply he has been sensational in his first two starts in January. With recent races, a top pedigree, great connections this horse gets my top ranking. The only negative is the "Curse of 1882" no juvenile races in his past performances. Every other racing matrix shows a strong positive pattern for Machen.
In the past few year's one of the leading indicators of class has been a "breakaway" performance, a win by four lengths or greater has been a recent calling cards of winners Big Brown, Street Sense, Barbaro, Empire Maker who all won prep races by 8 lengths on their way to the Derby starting Gate. Machen has raced twice and recorded two five length wins. Both races overcoming slight trouble at the start of his races and turning the stretch run into a public workout. On top of the strong races. Machen sports two workouts between his maiden win and his allowance win on Saturday. The Performance side of the equation checks out.
Now for the Pedigree. From the top, this horse has a mix of speed and stamina influences on both side of the pedigree. Mixed in with some brilliance from his Dam. Ready's Gal who was a stakes winner and is the daughter of More than Ready who finished 4th in the Derby. His sire traces to the solid middle distance influence of Halo. The inbreeding on Machen is very interesting. Machen is inbred to full brothers Mr. Prospector and Search for Gold. Mr. Prospector was by Raise a Native out of a Gold Digger mare. He is found on the sire side of Machen. On the female tail, Search for Gold is found in the 4th generation of Ready's Gal. Search for Gold is by Raise a Native out of Gold Digger and was born in 1969, with Mr. Prospector being born in 1970. For pedigree purists this is a fun one and Courtlandt Farm pedigree gurus must have stayed up late at night to come up with this mix!
#2 To Honor and Serve: Gets second billing because of a stronger Juvenile foundation to work with. The best thing that happened to THAS was that he lost his first race. Since he is longer "undefeated" they can focus on winning races and peaking on Derby Day. This fetish with undefeated records in recent year's has caused many a horse to be "short" come the first Saturday in May. To Honor and Serve has 4 races under his belt. Two stakes races and a 9 furlong race as a juvenile. His recent workout activity is "slow" compared to the "super" trainer workout patterns, but this is old school Bill Mott at the helm, his most recent workout was 5 furlongs, strong foundation of workouts and races as a Juvenile bodes well for his ability to get back to top form quickly, which The Fountain of Youth is shaping up as a strong comeback race on February 26th.
The pedigree pundits are happy with the mix of A.P Indy, Deputy Minister, Nijinsky II, Secretariat and Spectacular Bid all found in his first four generations. In recent years they are basically your "classic" distance horses. A March 18th foal he has a solid mix of speed and stamina on both sides of the pedigree with a solid running style. My gut instinct says that he was "on the lead" as a juvenile in 3 of his 4 races because he was just plain faster than the competition. As a three-year old, look for him to be just off the pace and wear down the competition with 24 second quarters. Very exciting prospect.
#3 Uncle Mo: We want Mo! Mo activity, Mo workouts. With no races and only one workout. I'm leaving Mo #3 until he races as a sophomore. Nothing new to report here. His maiden breaker at Saratoga stole the show on Travers Day, his Breeder's Cup victory was as crisp and clean as the Churchill air that afternoon. Undefeated and maybe being "babied" just a wee bit so far this year.
Pedigree, mixed signals. Sire Indian Charlie has sired early-developing fast sprinters, who have been able to go fast up to a mile. Indian Charlie himself was lightly raced and finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and was trained by Bob Baffert. Uncle Mo's career so far is very similar to Indian Charlie. Very fast, highly publicized, bet down in every race, but ultimately just not a 12 furlong horse. Despite that, with a 108 speed figure as a juvenile and runs with a very methodical stride, has the ability to quickly accelerate and like To Honor and Serve I think he was just faster than everyone as a Juvenile and may ultimately be able to rate. Just getting into shape and very formidable. Let's not "crown" him just yet.
#4 Santiva: A personal favorite. Solid juvenile foundation, ran three strong races and broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in a stakes race. Can race on the lead or just off the pace. Has shown more of a grinding style so far and not a raw speed type, should "age" well and be a factor. Possibly the Risen Star or Fountain of Youth for his comeback race.
Pedigree, Giant's Causeway on Top, adds, speed, brilliance and a touch of class to a speedy pedigree on the bottom. Second Dam Safely Home was the dam of the brilliant sprinter Safely Kept. This pedigree is very classy and is a "racing" pedigree. Anxious to see him develop this year.
#5 Elite Alex: Only one start as a Juvenile. But his debut at Oaklawn Park as a Juvenile, left we wanting more. Left at the gate and trailing the field most of the way, "Alex" came late to party, while running wide and looking very competitive in the lane. Next up the Southwest for this son of Afleet Alex.
Pedigree: Afleet Alex was just a very good horse, short, long, lots of heart and class. Ran his race every time and carried his "track" with him, running strong races at every track. Gets stamina from Unbridled who is the sire of his dam Catch the Moment. Female side also includes distance influences Nureyev, Graustark and Secretariat. Very intrigued by Alex and thought about him in the 4th spot.
#6: Dialed In: Holy Bull was not a fluke. Stone Cold stretch run was an eye-opener and this followed a Maiden win that had everyone abuzz at Churchill Downs. Not much left to say. He's for real. Trained by Zito. Strong pedigree and recent races and workouts are perfectly spaced. Has the earnings, long-term it may have been better to "lose" and lose the undefeated" status, Nick Zito is already second guessing on whether to run in the Fountain of Youth or not. If he sits on the shelf too long, he will have to crank him up late.
#7 Cool Blue Red Hot: I like him. Got run into the ground by Soldat in the Gulfstream Slop. But that was after pressuring the pace the the whole way. Third quarter was a sub :24 quarter. His maiden win he came from 8 lengths off the pace. Look for him to go back to closing and will be extremely tough in his next race. This horse has a strong foundation. Recent works. Pedigree is a little light on the class side. But contains distance influences in A. P. Indy, Affirmed and Secretariat on both sides of the pedigree. Needs to step up in his next race.
#8 Soldat: May have "freaked" in the slop at Gulfstream. Has class and a strong Juvenile foundation. I'm still a believer in seasoning and losing races. Barbaro and Smarty Jones were both undefeated, but both were tested on their way to the Derby. Soldat has run in Graded Races, defeated top turf horses and has the earnings. Possible for the Fountain of Youth, does not need the lead and has a pedigree with "mud" and middle distance influences. Round Table on the female side answers some distance questions. Could get the carpet yanked out on him in the Fountain of Youth, or may ride the magic carpet all the way to Kentucky. Has the earnings and trainer and foundation. Needs to just stay the course.
Those are my eight most likely candidates to wear roses. I think after that group there is a large drop off to horses that have potential, or a strong pedigree, but not both and with recent activity. Here are some more names to chew on in the coming month.
J. P's Gusto: Like it or not has the earnings, has been working forwardly for a return in the San Vincente or Beverly Lewis. Looks like 10 furlongs may be too long, but is classy and is working strongly and has solid foundation of races.
Tapizar: Ran on the Santa Anita Speed Highway in early January. To be honest that track is so messed up with recent final times, I have no idea how to put in context. Garrett Gomez rides and has won two in a row. Son of Pulpit has potential.
The Factor: Baffert trained. Only one race. Has to pull a "Congaree" and get good also get good fast.
Runflatout: Can falt out run. Monster debut over the weekend. Sub 6 furlongs in under 1:08. Stupidly fast times out West. Very talented but only one super fast horse can emerge from out west, unless they spread out and go to Oaklawn, the Fairgrounds and Sunland.
Monzon: Next Up the Sam F Davis. Two for Two on dirt. Strong close at Aqueduct. Son of Thunder Gulch is a runner.
Brethren: The more talented brother of Super Saver. Has only two races. But his race at Churchill Downs in the fall was with a wide trip and showed a lot of "moxy" Like this horse but they may be rushing a little bit. Also goes in the Sam Davis a win in that race, puts him in the Bullseye Mix.
Indian Winter: Another son of Indian Charlie, this one on the West Coast. Jerry Hollendorfer trained. Won for fun in his most recent start. Next stretching out, has some experience.
Comma to The Top: Racing wise he belongs in the top four. Has been working fast and should be ready for whatever race they put him in on February 12th. Has class, but yet to run on traditional Dirt and may face too many other speed balls.
Boys at Tosconova: The negative is the distance breeding. Also only defeated a four horse field in the stakes win, was no match for Uncle Mo in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. The horse is being wisely rested. But I think most handicappers have their doubts on this horse. A look at the Louisville Courier Derby poll shows a lot of people leaving him out of their top 10, which is unusual since he has the earnings. I think he is this year's "Wizard of Oz" horse, once you pull away the curtain....
#1: Machen: Quite simply he has been sensational in his first two starts in January. With recent races, a top pedigree, great connections this horse gets my top ranking. The only negative is the "Curse of 1882" no juvenile races in his past performances. Every other racing matrix shows a strong positive pattern for Machen.
In the past few year's one of the leading indicators of class has been a "breakaway" performance, a win by four lengths or greater has been a recent calling cards of winners Big Brown, Street Sense, Barbaro, Empire Maker who all won prep races by 8 lengths on their way to the Derby starting Gate. Machen has raced twice and recorded two five length wins. Both races overcoming slight trouble at the start of his races and turning the stretch run into a public workout. On top of the strong races. Machen sports two workouts between his maiden win and his allowance win on Saturday. The Performance side of the equation checks out.
Now for the Pedigree. From the top, this horse has a mix of speed and stamina influences on both side of the pedigree. Mixed in with some brilliance from his Dam. Ready's Gal who was a stakes winner and is the daughter of More than Ready who finished 4th in the Derby. His sire traces to the solid middle distance influence of Halo. The inbreeding on Machen is very interesting. Machen is inbred to full brothers Mr. Prospector and Search for Gold. Mr. Prospector was by Raise a Native out of a Gold Digger mare. He is found on the sire side of Machen. On the female tail, Search for Gold is found in the 4th generation of Ready's Gal. Search for Gold is by Raise a Native out of Gold Digger and was born in 1969, with Mr. Prospector being born in 1970. For pedigree purists this is a fun one and Courtlandt Farm pedigree gurus must have stayed up late at night to come up with this mix!
#2 To Honor and Serve: Gets second billing because of a stronger Juvenile foundation to work with. The best thing that happened to THAS was that he lost his first race. Since he is longer "undefeated" they can focus on winning races and peaking on Derby Day. This fetish with undefeated records in recent year's has caused many a horse to be "short" come the first Saturday in May. To Honor and Serve has 4 races under his belt. Two stakes races and a 9 furlong race as a juvenile. His recent workout activity is "slow" compared to the "super" trainer workout patterns, but this is old school Bill Mott at the helm, his most recent workout was 5 furlongs, strong foundation of workouts and races as a Juvenile bodes well for his ability to get back to top form quickly, which The Fountain of Youth is shaping up as a strong comeback race on February 26th.
The pedigree pundits are happy with the mix of A.P Indy, Deputy Minister, Nijinsky II, Secretariat and Spectacular Bid all found in his first four generations. In recent years they are basically your "classic" distance horses. A March 18th foal he has a solid mix of speed and stamina on both sides of the pedigree with a solid running style. My gut instinct says that he was "on the lead" as a juvenile in 3 of his 4 races because he was just plain faster than the competition. As a three-year old, look for him to be just off the pace and wear down the competition with 24 second quarters. Very exciting prospect.
#3 Uncle Mo: We want Mo! Mo activity, Mo workouts. With no races and only one workout. I'm leaving Mo #3 until he races as a sophomore. Nothing new to report here. His maiden breaker at Saratoga stole the show on Travers Day, his Breeder's Cup victory was as crisp and clean as the Churchill air that afternoon. Undefeated and maybe being "babied" just a wee bit so far this year.
Pedigree, mixed signals. Sire Indian Charlie has sired early-developing fast sprinters, who have been able to go fast up to a mile. Indian Charlie himself was lightly raced and finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and was trained by Bob Baffert. Uncle Mo's career so far is very similar to Indian Charlie. Very fast, highly publicized, bet down in every race, but ultimately just not a 12 furlong horse. Despite that, with a 108 speed figure as a juvenile and runs with a very methodical stride, has the ability to quickly accelerate and like To Honor and Serve I think he was just faster than everyone as a Juvenile and may ultimately be able to rate. Just getting into shape and very formidable. Let's not "crown" him just yet.
#4 Santiva: A personal favorite. Solid juvenile foundation, ran three strong races and broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in a stakes race. Can race on the lead or just off the pace. Has shown more of a grinding style so far and not a raw speed type, should "age" well and be a factor. Possibly the Risen Star or Fountain of Youth for his comeback race.
Pedigree, Giant's Causeway on Top, adds, speed, brilliance and a touch of class to a speedy pedigree on the bottom. Second Dam Safely Home was the dam of the brilliant sprinter Safely Kept. This pedigree is very classy and is a "racing" pedigree. Anxious to see him develop this year.
#5 Elite Alex: Only one start as a Juvenile. But his debut at Oaklawn Park as a Juvenile, left we wanting more. Left at the gate and trailing the field most of the way, "Alex" came late to party, while running wide and looking very competitive in the lane. Next up the Southwest for this son of Afleet Alex.
Pedigree: Afleet Alex was just a very good horse, short, long, lots of heart and class. Ran his race every time and carried his "track" with him, running strong races at every track. Gets stamina from Unbridled who is the sire of his dam Catch the Moment. Female side also includes distance influences Nureyev, Graustark and Secretariat. Very intrigued by Alex and thought about him in the 4th spot.
#6: Dialed In: Holy Bull was not a fluke. Stone Cold stretch run was an eye-opener and this followed a Maiden win that had everyone abuzz at Churchill Downs. Not much left to say. He's for real. Trained by Zito. Strong pedigree and recent races and workouts are perfectly spaced. Has the earnings, long-term it may have been better to "lose" and lose the undefeated" status, Nick Zito is already second guessing on whether to run in the Fountain of Youth or not. If he sits on the shelf too long, he will have to crank him up late.
#7 Cool Blue Red Hot: I like him. Got run into the ground by Soldat in the Gulfstream Slop. But that was after pressuring the pace the the whole way. Third quarter was a sub :24 quarter. His maiden win he came from 8 lengths off the pace. Look for him to go back to closing and will be extremely tough in his next race. This horse has a strong foundation. Recent works. Pedigree is a little light on the class side. But contains distance influences in A. P. Indy, Affirmed and Secretariat on both sides of the pedigree. Needs to step up in his next race.
#8 Soldat: May have "freaked" in the slop at Gulfstream. Has class and a strong Juvenile foundation. I'm still a believer in seasoning and losing races. Barbaro and Smarty Jones were both undefeated, but both were tested on their way to the Derby. Soldat has run in Graded Races, defeated top turf horses and has the earnings. Possible for the Fountain of Youth, does not need the lead and has a pedigree with "mud" and middle distance influences. Round Table on the female side answers some distance questions. Could get the carpet yanked out on him in the Fountain of Youth, or may ride the magic carpet all the way to Kentucky. Has the earnings and trainer and foundation. Needs to just stay the course.
Those are my eight most likely candidates to wear roses. I think after that group there is a large drop off to horses that have potential, or a strong pedigree, but not both and with recent activity. Here are some more names to chew on in the coming month.
J. P's Gusto: Like it or not has the earnings, has been working forwardly for a return in the San Vincente or Beverly Lewis. Looks like 10 furlongs may be too long, but is classy and is working strongly and has solid foundation of races.
Tapizar: Ran on the Santa Anita Speed Highway in early January. To be honest that track is so messed up with recent final times, I have no idea how to put in context. Garrett Gomez rides and has won two in a row. Son of Pulpit has potential.
The Factor: Baffert trained. Only one race. Has to pull a "Congaree" and get good also get good fast.
Runflatout: Can falt out run. Monster debut over the weekend. Sub 6 furlongs in under 1:08. Stupidly fast times out West. Very talented but only one super fast horse can emerge from out west, unless they spread out and go to Oaklawn, the Fairgrounds and Sunland.
Monzon: Next Up the Sam F Davis. Two for Two on dirt. Strong close at Aqueduct. Son of Thunder Gulch is a runner.
Brethren: The more talented brother of Super Saver. Has only two races. But his race at Churchill Downs in the fall was with a wide trip and showed a lot of "moxy" Like this horse but they may be rushing a little bit. Also goes in the Sam Davis a win in that race, puts him in the Bullseye Mix.
Indian Winter: Another son of Indian Charlie, this one on the West Coast. Jerry Hollendorfer trained. Won for fun in his most recent start. Next stretching out, has some experience.
Comma to The Top: Racing wise he belongs in the top four. Has been working fast and should be ready for whatever race they put him in on February 12th. Has class, but yet to run on traditional Dirt and may face too many other speed balls.
Boys at Tosconova: The negative is the distance breeding. Also only defeated a four horse field in the stakes win, was no match for Uncle Mo in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. The horse is being wisely rested. But I think most handicappers have their doubts on this horse. A look at the Louisville Courier Derby poll shows a lot of people leaving him out of their top 10, which is unusual since he has the earnings. I think he is this year's "Wizard of Oz" horse, once you pull away the curtain....
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Off the Turf and on the Derby Trail
A tale of two preps last week ignited some friendly online chatter and debate on the the merits of the Derby and Oaks prospects of Soldat and Kathmanblu.
Soldat defeated a small but quality field at Gulfstream and emerged with a 10 length win. Many handicappers are writing this off as a "slop" induced result. Meanwhile Kathmanblu went to the turf and made short work of her field and solidified herself as one of the favorites for the Oaks, why the difference?
In recent years many horses have made an impact in the Derby starting their careers on the lawn. Since 1970, 694 horses have started in the Derby. Of those 694 horses 35 of them debuted on the turf course before eventually moving to the dirt for their run for the roses.
In recent years the turf to dirt trend has been magnified with more horses making the switch and success has followed. Sir Tristram began his career on the turf in 1973 and finished 11th in the 1974 Derby. Following Sir Tristram there was a long drought with no horse attempting that non-traditional career path on the way to Kentucky until 1986 when Bold Arrangement finished 2nd.
Since 2000, 25 of the 35 starters have appeared on the grass in a debut race before eventually moving to the lawn. That does not include horses who raced on the turf before entering the Derby starting gate but didn't begin their career on the lawn like Soldat.
In the past decade the only year the derby field has not had a derby started who started his career on the lawn was 2003 and 2007. In 2003 Peace Rules ran a strong race in Louisville with 3 of his five wins entering the Derby recorded on the Turf. In 2007 Sedgefield and Storm in May both had multiple attempts on the lawn before going "off the turf", Barbaro won the derby in 2006, Big Brown followed up with a victory in 2008 after running one race as a Juvenile on the grass. Pioneerof the Nile finished 2nd in 2009.
Now let's relate this to Soldat's performance last week at Gulfstream. Soldat began his career on the dirt with two 5.5 furlong races. Then moved to the turf and established his class with a G3 win and Breeder's Cup Juvenile Grade two runner up finish. Already proven class wise and with plenty of money in his pocketbook. Soldat is well positioned on the Derby trail with his next race most likely the Fountain of Youth.
The general perception is that Soldat took advantage of his "slop" breeding and relished the off-goint last week on his way to a 102 Beyer speed figure.
Meanwhile Kathmanblu started her career last June in a 4.5 furlong race at Churchill Downs finishing 8th place. Moved to the turf and a drop in class she responded with a win at a mile at Ellis Park on July 17th. Kathmanblu first showed her brilliance at Keeneland in October winning the Jessamine Stakes on the turf by four widening lengths. Then entered for the first time back on dirt after four straight turf races, Kathmanblu pulled away with authority by eight lengths in the Golden Rod Stakes at Churchill.
This past Saturday, Kathmanblu was back on the turf and made a strong sustained run and put away the solid filly Excited before pulling away to a 1.5 length victory. After the race many handicappers claimed she was one of the top five oaks prospects.
To recap Soldat wins on the Dirt and most fans have labeled him a turfer. Kathmanblu wins on the turf and she is a "dirt" horse and one of the three Oaks favorites?
Welcome to Derby Fever 2011, perception sometimes trumps performance on the Triple Crown Trail!
Soldat defeated a small but quality field at Gulfstream and emerged with a 10 length win. Many handicappers are writing this off as a "slop" induced result. Meanwhile Kathmanblu went to the turf and made short work of her field and solidified herself as one of the favorites for the Oaks, why the difference?
In recent years many horses have made an impact in the Derby starting their careers on the lawn. Since 1970, 694 horses have started in the Derby. Of those 694 horses 35 of them debuted on the turf course before eventually moving to the dirt for their run for the roses.
In recent years the turf to dirt trend has been magnified with more horses making the switch and success has followed. Sir Tristram began his career on the turf in 1973 and finished 11th in the 1974 Derby. Following Sir Tristram there was a long drought with no horse attempting that non-traditional career path on the way to Kentucky until 1986 when Bold Arrangement finished 2nd.
Since 2000, 25 of the 35 starters have appeared on the grass in a debut race before eventually moving to the lawn. That does not include horses who raced on the turf before entering the Derby starting gate but didn't begin their career on the lawn like Soldat.
In the past decade the only year the derby field has not had a derby started who started his career on the lawn was 2003 and 2007. In 2003 Peace Rules ran a strong race in Louisville with 3 of his five wins entering the Derby recorded on the Turf. In 2007 Sedgefield and Storm in May both had multiple attempts on the lawn before going "off the turf", Barbaro won the derby in 2006, Big Brown followed up with a victory in 2008 after running one race as a Juvenile on the grass. Pioneerof the Nile finished 2nd in 2009.
Now let's relate this to Soldat's performance last week at Gulfstream. Soldat began his career on the dirt with two 5.5 furlong races. Then moved to the turf and established his class with a G3 win and Breeder's Cup Juvenile Grade two runner up finish. Already proven class wise and with plenty of money in his pocketbook. Soldat is well positioned on the Derby trail with his next race most likely the Fountain of Youth.
The general perception is that Soldat took advantage of his "slop" breeding and relished the off-goint last week on his way to a 102 Beyer speed figure.
Meanwhile Kathmanblu started her career last June in a 4.5 furlong race at Churchill Downs finishing 8th place. Moved to the turf and a drop in class she responded with a win at a mile at Ellis Park on July 17th. Kathmanblu first showed her brilliance at Keeneland in October winning the Jessamine Stakes on the turf by four widening lengths. Then entered for the first time back on dirt after four straight turf races, Kathmanblu pulled away with authority by eight lengths in the Golden Rod Stakes at Churchill.
This past Saturday, Kathmanblu was back on the turf and made a strong sustained run and put away the solid filly Excited before pulling away to a 1.5 length victory. After the race many handicappers claimed she was one of the top five oaks prospects.
To recap Soldat wins on the Dirt and most fans have labeled him a turfer. Kathmanblu wins on the turf and she is a "dirt" horse and one of the three Oaks favorites?
Welcome to Derby Fever 2011, perception sometimes trumps performance on the Triple Crown Trail!
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Off the Couch, First Derby works of 2011
Well it's time for Kentucky Derby contenders to "get off the couch" and onto the track. With many of the top contenders choosing 2-start campaigns in 2011. The workout watch is underway.
Let's recap the first published works of the last 4-years for the recent 2-Derby Prep winners:
A quartet of winners and each with unique workout patterns before wearing roses in May. Street Sense and Super Saver both used the Tampa Bay Derby as their first prep of their Sophomore campaigns, so with Uncle Mo yet to show up on the work tab for 2011, he still has another 10 days or so before possibly having his first workout. Although Super Saver for Todd Pletcher last year did not work until February 14th.
Monday saw the the first recorded workout of the year for To Honor and Serve, a light three furlong workout in :39 and 4/5 at Payson.
Monday also saw the 3rd workout of 2011 for Todd Pletcher trained Brethren. Brethren with zero stakes starts as a sophomore and only two starts overall, seems to be further along than Super Saver was last year, already hitting 5 furlongs in Mondays work.
Boys at Tosconova is being trained with a complete 360 from Big Brown. Richard Dutrow, didn't take "The Boys" out of training and opted to work him in December and into the new year. It will be interesting to see if Boys at Tosconova can make it through the Triple Crown Series essentially never being taken out of training from his juvenile season.
Let's recap the first published works of the last 4-years for the recent 2-Derby Prep winners:
- In 2007 Street Sense recorded his first published work on January 29th. 4F in :53 seconds. With 5 starts as a Juvenile, Street Sense had a solid base.
- In 2008 Big Brown worked 4F in :48 flat on February 24th. With only 2 recorded workouts. 2/24 and 3/1 before winning his March 5th prep by 12 lengths. Then 2 more workouts and running 9 furlongs in the Florida Derby. This horse obviously had major issues, but still the raw talent, combined with a little Dutrow/Rodriguez "elixir".
- 2009 Mine That Bird: 3 furlongs on January 6th at Sunland in 39 1/5. The Bird fired off 6 workouts before his first race on February 28th.
- 2010: Super Saver: 5 Furlong in 1:01 2/5 on February 14th. Again Super Saver had a strong foundation with 4 starts as a juvenile and 3 route races.
A quartet of winners and each with unique workout patterns before wearing roses in May. Street Sense and Super Saver both used the Tampa Bay Derby as their first prep of their Sophomore campaigns, so with Uncle Mo yet to show up on the work tab for 2011, he still has another 10 days or so before possibly having his first workout. Although Super Saver for Todd Pletcher last year did not work until February 14th.
Monday saw the the first recorded workout of the year for To Honor and Serve, a light three furlong workout in :39 and 4/5 at Payson.
Monday also saw the 3rd workout of 2011 for Todd Pletcher trained Brethren. Brethren with zero stakes starts as a sophomore and only two starts overall, seems to be further along than Super Saver was last year, already hitting 5 furlongs in Mondays work.
Boys at Tosconova is being trained with a complete 360 from Big Brown. Richard Dutrow, didn't take "The Boys" out of training and opted to work him in December and into the new year. It will be interesting to see if Boys at Tosconova can make it through the Triple Crown Series essentially never being taken out of training from his juvenile season.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Graded Derby Dollars 2011
The Sham stakes this Saturday kicks off the 2011 Graded Stakes schedule on the Derby Trail. Between January 15th and through the Grade 3 Derby Trail on April 30th, 30 graded stakes will be run.
Distances will range from the 7 furlong Swale Stakes to the major preps that are run at 9 furlongs. Three Graded Races will be on Polytrack: The Grade III Spiral Stakes Stakes at Turfway Park, the Grade II Lexington Stakes at Keeneland and the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. The El Camino Real Derby at GG will be on the surface known as Tapeta!
With the Lexington Stakes being run on April 23rd, the Jerome Stakes on April 24th and the Derby Trial Stakes on April 30th that leaves 27 viable preps to earn the needed Graded Stakes dollars and obtain a golden ticket and be in the Derby Starting gate on May 7th.
Grade 1
For many years the Big 5 final preps included: The Wood Memorial, the Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby, the Arkansas Derby and the Bluegrass Stakes. How much longer can the Bluegrass Stakes continue to have any relevance when a lot of major trainers are only utilizing the Bluegrass as a last resort, and other trainers like Nick Zito are crossing the race off the list as a possible prep for the Derby. The Bluegrass has lost ground in recent years with the polytrack and modern training methods that don't like the Bluegrass dates of 3 weeks before the Derby. Many trainers prefer 5 to six weeks rest before Kentucky.
This year the Louisiana Derby is 9 furlongs and a purse of 1 million will make it a major target for many derby hopefuls from all locations. One of the drawbacks is that a poor showing, does not allow for a Florida Derby run on April 3rd or any of the big three preps on April 9th. Basically the top two from the Louisiana Derby get a ticket to Kentucky but a long layoff afterwords. The LeComte and The Risen Star are positioned optimally for the local horses to prep for the Louisiana Derby. In reality the Louisiana Derby favors horses who have some juvenile Derby earnings, who can run one prep before the Louisiana Derby, secure a Derby field spot and then have six weeks to tighten the screws.
Horses who fit that profile in 2011 include Gourmet Dinner, Santiva, Major Gain and Astrology.
Florida Derby
The Florida Derby has been a yo-yo in recent years. Moving the race anywhere from five to seven weeks before the Kentucky Derby. This year they may have found the right bowl of porridge placing the race on April 3rd, Five weeks before the big dance in Kentucky. If Everything goes well for To Honor and Serve in the Fountain of Youth, look for him to stay in the Sunshine Stake right through the Florida Derby.
Organized Chaos:
Looking at the list of Graded races up to the Kentucky Derby. There is no doubt that by the time the field is set for the Derby the top 10 contenders are in the gate. There may be a little haggling each year on the final few entries. But there is no evidence that the "best" horse has not had a chance to run.
Even with this being said, the Derby prep schedule has no sense of timing or rhythm. The Sunland Derby has one of the biggest purses and is run in March. The Blue Grass is run on Poly and only three weeks before the Derby.
Individually each track sets up a logical progression of races, Fairgrounds cards the LeComte, stretches out to the Risen Star at 8.5 furlongs and then the Louisiana Derby at 9 furlongs. Gulfstream has the Fountain of Youth as the logical prep for the Derby. Many of these traditional preps were best served when horses did not ship as much and the race for the Triple Crown was followed locally at the track. In recent years with the "power" stables and larger purses, it's not uncommon for horses to train at one track and ship to another.
Secondly, rising purses at Racino's and tracks such as Tampa Bay dramatically improving the quality of purses and giving a second option for horses to train in Florida during the winter.
With the increase of stakes races, the quality of the prep races has been reduced in recent years. This has led wide spread shipping in search of Graded Stakes money. The end result has been less natural rivalries developed and many horses who have won the Battle - qualified to the Derby, but lost the war - win the roses.
Rivalries:
Alydar and Affirmed met multiple times in the 70's before drawing the line in the sand in Kentucky. In recent years. The prep rivalries have not built up, which has resulted in less overall sportsmanship. Why face a horse in a prep race if you don't have to?
The last great rivalry may have been Silver Charm and Free house, who faced each other five straight races with Free House claiming the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby's and Silver Charm winning the San Vicente, Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Remember this about Rivalry's. It's only a Rivalry if both sides have won at least once. The last true rivalry occurred in 2007 when Great Hunter and Street Sense faced each other three times before Churchill Downs. Great Hunter winning the Breeder's Futurity and Street Sense winning the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. One tough Dominican won the BlueGrass Stakes with Street Sense 2nd and Great Hunter 5th by only one length. The 2007 class also featured Nobiz Like Shobiz "hooking up" four times before the Derby with Scat Daddy. Nobiz winning The Holy Bull and Scat Daddy claiming the Champagne and Fountain of Youth.
In recent years. Horses are lightly raced as 2 year-olds, only run twice as 3 year-olds and many trainers avoid the matchups. Richard Dutrow is already on record as saying he will not face Uncle Mo until Kentucky. To Honor and Serve has hinted they do not want to face Uncle Mo until Kentucky.
The lack of rivalries does probably help the betting on the race. Which is why in recent year's we have seen (2) 50-1 winners and 8-1 last year with Super Saver.
The Sham Stakes has drawn a competitive field. A top two finish by Clubhouse Ride should bolster his earnings and pretty much put him in the starting gate.
Distances will range from the 7 furlong Swale Stakes to the major preps that are run at 9 furlongs. Three Graded Races will be on Polytrack: The Grade III Spiral Stakes Stakes at Turfway Park, the Grade II Lexington Stakes at Keeneland and the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. The El Camino Real Derby at GG will be on the surface known as Tapeta!
With the Lexington Stakes being run on April 23rd, the Jerome Stakes on April 24th and the Derby Trial Stakes on April 30th that leaves 27 viable preps to earn the needed Graded Stakes dollars and obtain a golden ticket and be in the Derby Starting gate on May 7th.
Grade 1
For many years the Big 5 final preps included: The Wood Memorial, the Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby, the Arkansas Derby and the Bluegrass Stakes. How much longer can the Bluegrass Stakes continue to have any relevance when a lot of major trainers are only utilizing the Bluegrass as a last resort, and other trainers like Nick Zito are crossing the race off the list as a possible prep for the Derby. The Bluegrass has lost ground in recent years with the polytrack and modern training methods that don't like the Bluegrass dates of 3 weeks before the Derby. Many trainers prefer 5 to six weeks rest before Kentucky.
This year the Louisiana Derby is 9 furlongs and a purse of 1 million will make it a major target for many derby hopefuls from all locations. One of the drawbacks is that a poor showing, does not allow for a Florida Derby run on April 3rd or any of the big three preps on April 9th. Basically the top two from the Louisiana Derby get a ticket to Kentucky but a long layoff afterwords. The LeComte and The Risen Star are positioned optimally for the local horses to prep for the Louisiana Derby. In reality the Louisiana Derby favors horses who have some juvenile Derby earnings, who can run one prep before the Louisiana Derby, secure a Derby field spot and then have six weeks to tighten the screws.
Horses who fit that profile in 2011 include Gourmet Dinner, Santiva, Major Gain and Astrology.
Florida Derby
The Florida Derby has been a yo-yo in recent years. Moving the race anywhere from five to seven weeks before the Kentucky Derby. This year they may have found the right bowl of porridge placing the race on April 3rd, Five weeks before the big dance in Kentucky. If Everything goes well for To Honor and Serve in the Fountain of Youth, look for him to stay in the Sunshine Stake right through the Florida Derby.
Organized Chaos:
Looking at the list of Graded races up to the Kentucky Derby. There is no doubt that by the time the field is set for the Derby the top 10 contenders are in the gate. There may be a little haggling each year on the final few entries. But there is no evidence that the "best" horse has not had a chance to run.
Even with this being said, the Derby prep schedule has no sense of timing or rhythm. The Sunland Derby has one of the biggest purses and is run in March. The Blue Grass is run on Poly and only three weeks before the Derby.
Individually each track sets up a logical progression of races, Fairgrounds cards the LeComte, stretches out to the Risen Star at 8.5 furlongs and then the Louisiana Derby at 9 furlongs. Gulfstream has the Fountain of Youth as the logical prep for the Derby. Many of these traditional preps were best served when horses did not ship as much and the race for the Triple Crown was followed locally at the track. In recent years with the "power" stables and larger purses, it's not uncommon for horses to train at one track and ship to another.
Secondly, rising purses at Racino's and tracks such as Tampa Bay dramatically improving the quality of purses and giving a second option for horses to train in Florida during the winter.
With the increase of stakes races, the quality of the prep races has been reduced in recent years. This has led wide spread shipping in search of Graded Stakes money. The end result has been less natural rivalries developed and many horses who have won the Battle - qualified to the Derby, but lost the war - win the roses.
Rivalries:
Alydar and Affirmed met multiple times in the 70's before drawing the line in the sand in Kentucky. In recent years. The prep rivalries have not built up, which has resulted in less overall sportsmanship. Why face a horse in a prep race if you don't have to?
The last great rivalry may have been Silver Charm and Free house, who faced each other five straight races with Free House claiming the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby's and Silver Charm winning the San Vicente, Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Remember this about Rivalry's. It's only a Rivalry if both sides have won at least once. The last true rivalry occurred in 2007 when Great Hunter and Street Sense faced each other three times before Churchill Downs. Great Hunter winning the Breeder's Futurity and Street Sense winning the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. One tough Dominican won the BlueGrass Stakes with Street Sense 2nd and Great Hunter 5th by only one length. The 2007 class also featured Nobiz Like Shobiz "hooking up" four times before the Derby with Scat Daddy. Nobiz winning The Holy Bull and Scat Daddy claiming the Champagne and Fountain of Youth.
In recent years. Horses are lightly raced as 2 year-olds, only run twice as 3 year-olds and many trainers avoid the matchups. Richard Dutrow is already on record as saying he will not face Uncle Mo until Kentucky. To Honor and Serve has hinted they do not want to face Uncle Mo until Kentucky.
The lack of rivalries does probably help the betting on the race. Which is why in recent year's we have seen (2) 50-1 winners and 8-1 last year with Super Saver.
The Sham Stakes has drawn a competitive field. A top two finish by Clubhouse Ride should bolster his earnings and pretty much put him in the starting gate.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
2010 Juvenile Eclipse Awards Finalists
This past week DRF released the finals for the 2010 Eclipse Awards that will be announced in a few weeks. The 2010 finalists are Uncle Mo, Boys at Tosconova and To Honor and Serve. How do this year's finalists compare with previous winners?
Uncle Mo is 3/5 to come away with the Divisional Championship, so lets compare him to recent winners.
BC Juvenile History:
Winning the Breeder's Cup Juvenile has become a strong predictor of winning the Eclipse Award. Overall 11 of the last 13 Breeder's Cup Juvenile winners have later been voted the the Juvenile Champion. In 2004 Wilko upset the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, allowing Declan's Moon to run away with the year-end honors. In 2009 Lookin at Lucky lost by a head in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile to Vale of York, but Lucky's overall record allowed him to earn divisional honors.
The Breeder's Cup Juvenile has become the De Facto visional Championship. Since 1984 19 of the 26 winners of the BC Juvenile have won the Eclipse Award. Uncle Mo more than likely will make it 20 of 27 later this month.
Other Juvenile Debates:
1987: Success Express wins the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, but Forty Niner wins the Eclipse
1988: Is It True defeats Easy Goer in the Mud at Churchill but Easy Goer claims the Eclipse Award
1993: Brocco wins the Breeder's Cup with Dehere winning the Eclipse
1995: Unbridled's Song win the BC Juvenile with Maria's Mon winning the Eclipse
The 1995 Eclipse Championship was very interesting. Maria's Mon finished his campaign with 4 wins in 5 starts defeating the Champagne Stakes by 4 lengths, but did not run in the BC Juvenile. Unbridled's Song finished 4th in the Champagne and finished with just three starts as a Juvenile winning a maiden race at Saratoga by 8 lengths, losing the Champagne after running fractions of 22 3/5 for the quarter, 45 and 1/5 for the half mile and 6 furlongs in 1:10 and 2/5's. Unbridled's Song was truly a running fool, recording 5 speed figures over 100 before running in the Kentucky Derby. His Champagne pace figures were well over 100 and he finished with a raw "Beyer" speed figure of 96.
Fast forward to 2010 and Uncle Mo, wins his Maiden race at Saratoga by 14 lengths, wins the Champagne and then closes out the year with a 108 speed figure winning the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Through three races, Mo has a very similar running profile to Unbridled's Song.
Comparing Uncle Mo to recent Eclipse Award winners:
2009 Lookin At Lucky: Five for six as a Juvenile. Three Grade 1 wins. Don't forget "Lucky" came back to win the Cash Call Futurity after losing the Breeder's Cup Juvenile.
2008 Midshipman: Three for four as a Juvenile. Two Grade 1's.
2007 War Pass: Three for four, Champagne/BC Juvenile Double
2006: Street Sense: Only two for five as a Juvenile, Maiden Race at Arlington Park and the 10 length Breeder's Cup Juvenile Romp.
2005: Stevie Wonderboy. Five Starts. Del Mar Futurity and BC Juvenile Stakes wins
With just three starts, Uncle Mo will become the most lightly raced Eclipse Award winner since Action This Day in 2003.
Future Predictor?
Street Sense broke the dreaded Juvenile Jinx in 2006 becoming the first BC Juvenile Champion to win the Kentucky Derby. The bigger picture shows that this has become an Eclipse Award Jinx. Street Sense was also the first Eclipse Award Juvenile winner to win the Kentucky Derby since Spectacular Bid in 1978!
The six non Breeder's Cup Juvenile winners also were Roses the following spring with Easy Goer's 2nd place finish in 1988 the closest call. Lookin at Lucky should become the first Eclipse Award Winner as a Juvenile to win three year old Champion honors since Spectacular Bid captured the Juvenile in 1978 and the Three Year-Old Championship in 1979.
Comma to The Top!
Lost in Juvenile top three finalists and not event listed is for the Juvenile finalists is Comma to the Top. In this day and time, this is completely unacceptable. Closing out the year with five straight wins, including a 8 length win in the Real Quiet Stakes and a dominating win in the Hollywood Futurity. With modern day simulcasting, instant results and online communication, how does Comma to the Top not make the Finalists? Let alone the top three? Boys at Tosconova has a 12 length maiden win at five furlongs as his Resume. Comma to the Top has Five wins. Boys at Tosconova defeated a four horse field in the hopeful and finished a non competing second verus Uncle Mo in the BC Juvenile. Comma to the Top has wins on multiple surfaces, dominating wins and the Hollywood Futurity has historically been a strong race of two year old form. A case could even be made that JP's Gust with two Graded Stakes wins and 2 Grade One Stakes placings very well could have been a third finalist. Flat out the Voter's got this one wrong.
To Honor and Serve showed both brilliance and class as a Juvenile. Winning his maiden race by 8 lengths and then coming back and winning two grade 2 races. His Nashua win was dominating and his Remsen win efficient, although both races only had 5 horse fields.
In case you missed it. Jeremy's Plonk's Countdown to the Crown returned last friday. Sometime's enlightening, always entertaining, and chock full of Derby Debate.
Uncle Mo is 3/5 to come away with the Divisional Championship, so lets compare him to recent winners.
BC Juvenile History:
Winning the Breeder's Cup Juvenile has become a strong predictor of winning the Eclipse Award. Overall 11 of the last 13 Breeder's Cup Juvenile winners have later been voted the the Juvenile Champion. In 2004 Wilko upset the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, allowing Declan's Moon to run away with the year-end honors. In 2009 Lookin at Lucky lost by a head in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile to Vale of York, but Lucky's overall record allowed him to earn divisional honors.
The Breeder's Cup Juvenile has become the De Facto visional Championship. Since 1984 19 of the 26 winners of the BC Juvenile have won the Eclipse Award. Uncle Mo more than likely will make it 20 of 27 later this month.
Other Juvenile Debates:
1987: Success Express wins the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, but Forty Niner wins the Eclipse
1988: Is It True defeats Easy Goer in the Mud at Churchill but Easy Goer claims the Eclipse Award
1993: Brocco wins the Breeder's Cup with Dehere winning the Eclipse
1995: Unbridled's Song win the BC Juvenile with Maria's Mon winning the Eclipse
The 1995 Eclipse Championship was very interesting. Maria's Mon finished his campaign with 4 wins in 5 starts defeating the Champagne Stakes by 4 lengths, but did not run in the BC Juvenile. Unbridled's Song finished 4th in the Champagne and finished with just three starts as a Juvenile winning a maiden race at Saratoga by 8 lengths, losing the Champagne after running fractions of 22 3/5 for the quarter, 45 and 1/5 for the half mile and 6 furlongs in 1:10 and 2/5's. Unbridled's Song was truly a running fool, recording 5 speed figures over 100 before running in the Kentucky Derby. His Champagne pace figures were well over 100 and he finished with a raw "Beyer" speed figure of 96.
Fast forward to 2010 and Uncle Mo, wins his Maiden race at Saratoga by 14 lengths, wins the Champagne and then closes out the year with a 108 speed figure winning the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Through three races, Mo has a very similar running profile to Unbridled's Song.
Comparing Uncle Mo to recent Eclipse Award winners:
2009 Lookin At Lucky: Five for six as a Juvenile. Three Grade 1 wins. Don't forget "Lucky" came back to win the Cash Call Futurity after losing the Breeder's Cup Juvenile.
2008 Midshipman: Three for four as a Juvenile. Two Grade 1's.
2007 War Pass: Three for four, Champagne/BC Juvenile Double
2006: Street Sense: Only two for five as a Juvenile, Maiden Race at Arlington Park and the 10 length Breeder's Cup Juvenile Romp.
2005: Stevie Wonderboy. Five Starts. Del Mar Futurity and BC Juvenile Stakes wins
With just three starts, Uncle Mo will become the most lightly raced Eclipse Award winner since Action This Day in 2003.
Future Predictor?
Street Sense broke the dreaded Juvenile Jinx in 2006 becoming the first BC Juvenile Champion to win the Kentucky Derby. The bigger picture shows that this has become an Eclipse Award Jinx. Street Sense was also the first Eclipse Award Juvenile winner to win the Kentucky Derby since Spectacular Bid in 1978!
The six non Breeder's Cup Juvenile winners also were Roses the following spring with Easy Goer's 2nd place finish in 1988 the closest call. Lookin at Lucky should become the first Eclipse Award Winner as a Juvenile to win three year old Champion honors since Spectacular Bid captured the Juvenile in 1978 and the Three Year-Old Championship in 1979.
Comma to The Top!
Lost in Juvenile top three finalists and not event listed is for the Juvenile finalists is Comma to the Top. In this day and time, this is completely unacceptable. Closing out the year with five straight wins, including a 8 length win in the Real Quiet Stakes and a dominating win in the Hollywood Futurity. With modern day simulcasting, instant results and online communication, how does Comma to the Top not make the Finalists? Let alone the top three? Boys at Tosconova has a 12 length maiden win at five furlongs as his Resume. Comma to the Top has Five wins. Boys at Tosconova defeated a four horse field in the hopeful and finished a non competing second verus Uncle Mo in the BC Juvenile. Comma to the Top has wins on multiple surfaces, dominating wins and the Hollywood Futurity has historically been a strong race of two year old form. A case could even be made that JP's Gust with two Graded Stakes wins and 2 Grade One Stakes placings very well could have been a third finalist. Flat out the Voter's got this one wrong.
To Honor and Serve showed both brilliance and class as a Juvenile. Winning his maiden race by 8 lengths and then coming back and winning two grade 2 races. His Nashua win was dominating and his Remsen win efficient, although both races only had 5 horse fields.
In case you missed it. Jeremy's Plonk's Countdown to the Crown returned last friday. Sometime's enlightening, always entertaining, and chock full of Derby Debate.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Derby Watch list January 2011
With more blogs posting weekly top contenders lists, I will post a Horses that I'm watching list. Then come back the first week of February with an updated top 10. In case you missed it, the man who started the Derby Watch: Steve Haskin is up with his first list of the year.
With the modern day road to the Derby, involving less starts it seems superficial to rank Uncle Mo #1 on any list until he has even ran in 2011. Much less do weekly updates with none of the three or four contenders not having raced.
Since the NFL playoffs are starting this week: I will do my rankings by seeding them in brackets by where they are training and where they might run their final prep races.
1st Round Byes: Many of these horses won't race until February
East:
#1 Seed: Uncle Mo: Undefeated, untested, unchallelleged, can't think of any more "u's". Mo made the Breeders Cup Juvenile field say "Uncle". Not much else left to say. His victory at Saratoga on the Traver's undercard stole the show! I have been following then ponies since 1987. His maiden victory is easily one of the top three performances I have seen in a maiden breaker. Sunday Silence is still #1, but it was Sunday's second career start and Uncle Mo did it in his first start. Wood Memorial looking like final Derby Prep. If that's true. It may be hard to to get a full field to test Mo before the Derby.
South:
#1 Seed: To Honor and Serve: Strong juvenile campaign, highlighted by 9 furlong stakes win at Aqueduct. Natural speed and weak fields put him on the lead in his last two starts. Have a gut feeling his final prep may be the Arkansas Derby or Louisiana Derby. Pointing to a February return in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream.
West:
#1 Seed: Comma to the Top: Closed out Juvenile campaign with five straight wins. If horse racing had a national Media Guide, we could look up the last Juvenile to win a Grade 1 and finish the year with 5 Juvenile wins. But it doesn't so before I get riled up and regress further. Comma was very impressive in the Hollywood Futurity. Poly may not have been around that long, but I saw very horses wire the field on the Poly over the last few years and Comma did it twice. First in the Real Quiet and then in the Futurity. Like the fact he is considering three starts before the Derby. Compared to Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve he looks more comfortable on the lead, rather than tracking. Dare I say the best front runner since Lost Code? Hopefully he can collect just as many Derby's. I expect him to stay out West and use the Santa Anita Derby as his final prep.
North:
#1 Seed: Tiz Blessed: Since the final major preps "North" involve either the Hawthorne Derby or the Bluegrass, I will place Tiz Blessed as the #1 seed, since he owns a major win on the Poly at Woodbine. The race was impressive and the breeding says "can do". 1A Would have to be Santiva. He race on the Turf, Poly and Dirt as a Juvenile, closing out his Freshman campaign with a gutty win at Churchill Downs. Looks like the first top matchup of the spring might be Santiva and To Honor and Serve in the Fountain of Youth.
1st Round Byes:
These horses have the earnings to qualify for the Derby, or a top 3 finish in a major Prep puts them right on the Edge:
Boys at Tosconova: Finished 2nd to Uncle Mo in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Of the major contenders, I see this horse having the most trouble at 10 furlongs. Planning a 2-prep campaign to the Derby and with a running style that is similar to the rest of the top contenders something has to give.
Clubhouse Ride: Third place finished in the Delta Jackpot and Hollywood Futurity have him on the fringe of Derby earnings. Two starts to get the rest in 2011 before the Derby.
Gourmet Dinner: 20-1 upset at Delta, hit the Jackpot for the Florida bred, ran evenly out West on the "Artificial" surface, goes back home and already has the earnings. PR wise Gourmet Dinner "wins" Derby is not a headline that Horse Racing needs right now. So he has strong negative vibes in that department.
Jaycito: Flopped at Churchill by taking a Right Turn Clyde to the Clubhouse, but it was cold and maybe he expected their to be "heating coils" at the Breeder's Cup. Has lots of Graded Dollars in the bank, and his owner will send him. Let's see what Bob Baffert does with him this spring. Again only two preps expected.
Astrology: Asmussen trainee, out West, will have multiple options to get to the Derby, has lots of earnings and had a foundation-building juvenile campaign. May not be flashy and have the sexy speed figures. But has a nice pedigree, sound racing bottom, multiple races over the Churchill track and Graded Earnings. Just add a healthy spring and a good post come Derby Day. Might try the Sunland Derby route to Kentucky.
Wild Cards:
This is what Derby Fever is all about. Basically we have 16 prep races to determine the final 10 Derby starting berths. The top 8 horses with Derby earnings are already in the field barring injury.
Brethren: Super Savers 1/2 brother, same mom, different dad. This Dad is the prodigous Distorted Humor. Who has already sired Funny Cide to a Derby win. His Allowance win at Churchill was strong, nice final time and won with a long sustained bid while running wide from the start. Room to improve. Look for at Tampa Bay.
Sheriff Cogburn: Has not run since destroying a field at Prairie Meadows last Summer. Needs to get back in training soon. Nice pedigree, solid Midwest trainer. Owned by Toby Keith. Look for at Oaklawn Park. One to keep an eye on.
Machen: Anyone who saw this Distorted Humor colt last Sunday was left impressed. Trained by the ultra conservative Neil Howard. Low efficient stride, this horse does not use any energy, should be able to run all day with his quick, low stride. Will probably stay in Louisiana.
Tapizar: Nice win at Churchill to close out 2010 in Stars of Tomorrow card. Trained by Steve Asmussen. Training out at Santa Anita.
Premier Pegasus: Nice looking colt showed speed and grit as a Juvenile, has the pedigree to stretch out and trainer has a small stable and is often ignored has a history of having his horses outrun their odds. Targeting the Sham Stakes on January 15th.
The Factor: Bob Baffert trainee, wowed them on opening day at Santa Anita, came back with a 102 speed figure. Two races as a juvenile. Stride not as efficient and low impact as Machen. Don't forget, Baffert likes Sunland as a prep race.
Classic Legacy/Sinai: Two more for Bob Baffert. Classic Legacy made a premature move in a Stakes Races at Woodbine. Then did not like the Bull Ring. Look for him to bounce back in the Sham Stakes. Looks like honest horse who will take some beating and has a strong juvenile foundation that has him fit and ready to cash some Graded Derby earnings in the next few months. Sinai. Leggy colt broke his maiden at first asking. Lack of experience but right trainer and the pedigree to consider.
Wilcox Inn: Raced on turf as a juvenile. May go to the dirt. Strong form. Just a hunch that they might try on dirt this spring.
Rogue Romance: Training at Gulfstream. May ship to run in 2011. Ran third in Breeder's Cup juvenile, so a top three finish puts him in the gate by Graded earnings. Son of Smarty Jones seems to have a following at the mutual windows.
Monzon: Won the Count Fleet stakes this past Saturday. But the way he did it was very impressive. Came from dead last on the Inner Dirt Track. By Thunder Gulch. Has strong Juvenile Form. Class tested next at Tampa Bay in the Sam Davis.
Red Hot Cold Blue: Training in Florida. Ran second to Buffum in Maiden event in New York. Then went to Calder and won for fun at 1/5. Nice trainer, strong foundation, a chip and a chair is all you need sometimes.
So there's a first down and dirty look at the top contenders/pretenders for the 2011 Kentucky Derby. Compared to previous year's. Top contenders look very strong. Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, and Santiva all are above last year's two year olds in terms of foundation for early January.
With the modern day road to the Derby, involving less starts it seems superficial to rank Uncle Mo #1 on any list until he has even ran in 2011. Much less do weekly updates with none of the three or four contenders not having raced.
Since the NFL playoffs are starting this week: I will do my rankings by seeding them in brackets by where they are training and where they might run their final prep races.
1st Round Byes: Many of these horses won't race until February
East:
#1 Seed: Uncle Mo: Undefeated, untested, unchallelleged, can't think of any more "u's". Mo made the Breeders Cup Juvenile field say "Uncle". Not much else left to say. His victory at Saratoga on the Traver's undercard stole the show! I have been following then ponies since 1987. His maiden victory is easily one of the top three performances I have seen in a maiden breaker. Sunday Silence is still #1, but it was Sunday's second career start and Uncle Mo did it in his first start. Wood Memorial looking like final Derby Prep. If that's true. It may be hard to to get a full field to test Mo before the Derby.
South:
#1 Seed: To Honor and Serve: Strong juvenile campaign, highlighted by 9 furlong stakes win at Aqueduct. Natural speed and weak fields put him on the lead in his last two starts. Have a gut feeling his final prep may be the Arkansas Derby or Louisiana Derby. Pointing to a February return in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream.
West:
#1 Seed: Comma to the Top: Closed out Juvenile campaign with five straight wins. If horse racing had a national Media Guide, we could look up the last Juvenile to win a Grade 1 and finish the year with 5 Juvenile wins. But it doesn't so before I get riled up and regress further. Comma was very impressive in the Hollywood Futurity. Poly may not have been around that long, but I saw very horses wire the field on the Poly over the last few years and Comma did it twice. First in the Real Quiet and then in the Futurity. Like the fact he is considering three starts before the Derby. Compared to Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve he looks more comfortable on the lead, rather than tracking. Dare I say the best front runner since Lost Code? Hopefully he can collect just as many Derby's. I expect him to stay out West and use the Santa Anita Derby as his final prep.
North:
#1 Seed: Tiz Blessed: Since the final major preps "North" involve either the Hawthorne Derby or the Bluegrass, I will place Tiz Blessed as the #1 seed, since he owns a major win on the Poly at Woodbine. The race was impressive and the breeding says "can do". 1A Would have to be Santiva. He race on the Turf, Poly and Dirt as a Juvenile, closing out his Freshman campaign with a gutty win at Churchill Downs. Looks like the first top matchup of the spring might be Santiva and To Honor and Serve in the Fountain of Youth.
1st Round Byes:
These horses have the earnings to qualify for the Derby, or a top 3 finish in a major Prep puts them right on the Edge:
Boys at Tosconova: Finished 2nd to Uncle Mo in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Of the major contenders, I see this horse having the most trouble at 10 furlongs. Planning a 2-prep campaign to the Derby and with a running style that is similar to the rest of the top contenders something has to give.
Clubhouse Ride: Third place finished in the Delta Jackpot and Hollywood Futurity have him on the fringe of Derby earnings. Two starts to get the rest in 2011 before the Derby.
Gourmet Dinner: 20-1 upset at Delta, hit the Jackpot for the Florida bred, ran evenly out West on the "Artificial" surface, goes back home and already has the earnings. PR wise Gourmet Dinner "wins" Derby is not a headline that Horse Racing needs right now. So he has strong negative vibes in that department.
Jaycito: Flopped at Churchill by taking a Right Turn Clyde to the Clubhouse, but it was cold and maybe he expected their to be "heating coils" at the Breeder's Cup. Has lots of Graded Dollars in the bank, and his owner will send him. Let's see what Bob Baffert does with him this spring. Again only two preps expected.
Astrology: Asmussen trainee, out West, will have multiple options to get to the Derby, has lots of earnings and had a foundation-building juvenile campaign. May not be flashy and have the sexy speed figures. But has a nice pedigree, sound racing bottom, multiple races over the Churchill track and Graded Earnings. Just add a healthy spring and a good post come Derby Day. Might try the Sunland Derby route to Kentucky.
Wild Cards:
This is what Derby Fever is all about. Basically we have 16 prep races to determine the final 10 Derby starting berths. The top 8 horses with Derby earnings are already in the field barring injury.
Brethren: Super Savers 1/2 brother, same mom, different dad. This Dad is the prodigous Distorted Humor. Who has already sired Funny Cide to a Derby win. His Allowance win at Churchill was strong, nice final time and won with a long sustained bid while running wide from the start. Room to improve. Look for at Tampa Bay.
Sheriff Cogburn: Has not run since destroying a field at Prairie Meadows last Summer. Needs to get back in training soon. Nice pedigree, solid Midwest trainer. Owned by Toby Keith. Look for at Oaklawn Park. One to keep an eye on.
Machen: Anyone who saw this Distorted Humor colt last Sunday was left impressed. Trained by the ultra conservative Neil Howard. Low efficient stride, this horse does not use any energy, should be able to run all day with his quick, low stride. Will probably stay in Louisiana.
Tapizar: Nice win at Churchill to close out 2010 in Stars of Tomorrow card. Trained by Steve Asmussen. Training out at Santa Anita.
Premier Pegasus: Nice looking colt showed speed and grit as a Juvenile, has the pedigree to stretch out and trainer has a small stable and is often ignored has a history of having his horses outrun their odds. Targeting the Sham Stakes on January 15th.
The Factor: Bob Baffert trainee, wowed them on opening day at Santa Anita, came back with a 102 speed figure. Two races as a juvenile. Stride not as efficient and low impact as Machen. Don't forget, Baffert likes Sunland as a prep race.
Classic Legacy/Sinai: Two more for Bob Baffert. Classic Legacy made a premature move in a Stakes Races at Woodbine. Then did not like the Bull Ring. Look for him to bounce back in the Sham Stakes. Looks like honest horse who will take some beating and has a strong juvenile foundation that has him fit and ready to cash some Graded Derby earnings in the next few months. Sinai. Leggy colt broke his maiden at first asking. Lack of experience but right trainer and the pedigree to consider.
Wilcox Inn: Raced on turf as a juvenile. May go to the dirt. Strong form. Just a hunch that they might try on dirt this spring.
Rogue Romance: Training at Gulfstream. May ship to run in 2011. Ran third in Breeder's Cup juvenile, so a top three finish puts him in the gate by Graded earnings. Son of Smarty Jones seems to have a following at the mutual windows.
Monzon: Won the Count Fleet stakes this past Saturday. But the way he did it was very impressive. Came from dead last on the Inner Dirt Track. By Thunder Gulch. Has strong Juvenile Form. Class tested next at Tampa Bay in the Sam Davis.
Red Hot Cold Blue: Training in Florida. Ran second to Buffum in Maiden event in New York. Then went to Calder and won for fun at 1/5. Nice trainer, strong foundation, a chip and a chair is all you need sometimes.
So there's a first down and dirty look at the top contenders/pretenders for the 2011 Kentucky Derby. Compared to previous year's. Top contenders look very strong. Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, and Santiva all are above last year's two year olds in terms of foundation for early January.
Monday, January 3, 2011
Two Starts vs Three Starts before the Derby in 2011?
If 50 has become the new 40, then 2 has become the new 3 on the Kentucky Derby Trail. For many years three or four starts was preferred for horses "prepping" for the Derby, then three starts became the norm. Since 2007, Street Sense, Big Brown, Mine That Bird and Super Saver have all taken the roses with just two starts as a sophomore before winning in Churchill.
From 2000 to 2006 the Kentucky Derby winners recorded 3 or 4 starts as a three year-old before winning the Derby:
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus - 4 previous 3 year old starts.
2001 - Monarchos - 4
2002 - War Emblem - 4
2003 - Funny Cide - 3
2004 - Smarty Jones - 4
2005 - Giacomo - 3
2006 - Barbaro - 3
With the last four winners all having 2 starts as a three year-old, we can see wear the trend line is going. Overall it may not be good for Horse Racing.
For 2011 top contenders Uncle Mo, and To Honor and Serve have already laid out plans for a 2-start campaign before Louisville. In recent years trainers have focused on getting the necessarily earnings and getting to the Derby, one wonders if they are winning the war, but losing the race. Mine That Bird and Super Saver never visited the winner's circle again. Big Brown only raced one time after the Belmont and Street Sense lost the Preakness and did not event run in the Belmont. Basically the trainers are putting all their eggs in the proverbial "Derby Basket".
If horses only have two starts before the Derby, and then are being asked to run 3 starts in 5 weeks at increasing distances. The most recent Triple Crown near misses involved "battle-tested" horses such as Charismatic, Real Quite, Silver Charm recorded 13, 12 and 9 career starts heading into their Triple Crown seasons.
Looking back to 1983. Sunny's Halo only had 2 preps as a three year-old before winning the Derby in his third Start. But Sunny's Halo had 11 Juvenile Starts in which to build a sound foundation. His wins in the spring of '83 before the Derby included a 4 length win in a 14 horse Arkansas Derby Field.
That's why it's refreshing to hear that Peter Miller is thinking about 3 starts for Comma to Top. With enough earnings and closing out the year with 5 straight wins, Comma to the top, could be put on the shelf and given some time off. But with his running style and how strong he has been finishing his recent races, he may be "old school" and need the racing.
Given their choice most trainers would opt for 2 starts before the Derby, but because of the earnings requirements, any horses that gets into January without any earnings, basically has to win one of the prep races.
This year Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, Santiva, Boys At Tosconova, Comma to the Top, Gourmet Dinner all are well ahead on earnings to get in the Derby gate. Of those 6 horses, only Comma to the Top and Gourmet Dinner have expressed any interest in running three prep races.
Will we start seeing horses attempt the Derby with only 1 Prep Start? From looking at the last 40 year's of Data it doesn't look pretty. 10 horses have ran in the Derby with just one Sophomore prep. The best finish was Eltish and China Vist who both finished 6th. The rest of the results are even uglier! Dr. Devious 7th, Arazi 8th, Express Tour 8th, Castle Gandolfo 12th, Johannesburg 8th. None of the 10 horses who ran in the Derby with only 1 start as a 3 year-old could manage even a 5th place finish. So for now, it looks like the baseline has been set. Get the 2 year old earnings, then start scheduling a 2 race campaign for Louisville.
From 2000 to 2006 the Kentucky Derby winners recorded 3 or 4 starts as a three year-old before winning the Derby:
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus - 4 previous 3 year old starts.
2001 - Monarchos - 4
2002 - War Emblem - 4
2003 - Funny Cide - 3
2004 - Smarty Jones - 4
2005 - Giacomo - 3
2006 - Barbaro - 3
With the last four winners all having 2 starts as a three year-old, we can see wear the trend line is going. Overall it may not be good for Horse Racing.
For 2011 top contenders Uncle Mo, and To Honor and Serve have already laid out plans for a 2-start campaign before Louisville. In recent years trainers have focused on getting the necessarily earnings and getting to the Derby, one wonders if they are winning the war, but losing the race. Mine That Bird and Super Saver never visited the winner's circle again. Big Brown only raced one time after the Belmont and Street Sense lost the Preakness and did not event run in the Belmont. Basically the trainers are putting all their eggs in the proverbial "Derby Basket".
If horses only have two starts before the Derby, and then are being asked to run 3 starts in 5 weeks at increasing distances. The most recent Triple Crown near misses involved "battle-tested" horses such as Charismatic, Real Quite, Silver Charm recorded 13, 12 and 9 career starts heading into their Triple Crown seasons.
Looking back to 1983. Sunny's Halo only had 2 preps as a three year-old before winning the Derby in his third Start. But Sunny's Halo had 11 Juvenile Starts in which to build a sound foundation. His wins in the spring of '83 before the Derby included a 4 length win in a 14 horse Arkansas Derby Field.
That's why it's refreshing to hear that Peter Miller is thinking about 3 starts for Comma to Top. With enough earnings and closing out the year with 5 straight wins, Comma to the top, could be put on the shelf and given some time off. But with his running style and how strong he has been finishing his recent races, he may be "old school" and need the racing.
Given their choice most trainers would opt for 2 starts before the Derby, but because of the earnings requirements, any horses that gets into January without any earnings, basically has to win one of the prep races.
This year Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, Santiva, Boys At Tosconova, Comma to the Top, Gourmet Dinner all are well ahead on earnings to get in the Derby gate. Of those 6 horses, only Comma to the Top and Gourmet Dinner have expressed any interest in running three prep races.
Will we start seeing horses attempt the Derby with only 1 Prep Start? From looking at the last 40 year's of Data it doesn't look pretty. 10 horses have ran in the Derby with just one Sophomore prep. The best finish was Eltish and China Vist who both finished 6th. The rest of the results are even uglier! Dr. Devious 7th, Arazi 8th, Express Tour 8th, Castle Gandolfo 12th, Johannesburg 8th. None of the 10 horses who ran in the Derby with only 1 start as a 3 year-old could manage even a 5th place finish. So for now, it looks like the baseline has been set. Get the 2 year old earnings, then start scheduling a 2 race campaign for Louisville.
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