Now that Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow we can be sure that spring is just 6 weeks away. Let's take a look at the top contenders. Combining Pedigree, Performance and recent activity into our first rankings of the year.
#1: Machen: Quite simply he has been sensational in his first two starts in January. With recent races, a top pedigree, great connections this horse gets my top ranking. The only negative is the "Curse of 1882" no juvenile races in his past performances. Every other racing matrix shows a strong positive pattern for Machen.
In the past few year's one of the leading indicators of class has been a "breakaway" performance, a win by four lengths or greater has been a recent calling cards of winners Big Brown, Street Sense, Barbaro, Empire Maker who all won prep races by 8 lengths on their way to the Derby starting Gate. Machen has raced twice and recorded two five length wins. Both races overcoming slight trouble at the start of his races and turning the stretch run into a public workout. On top of the strong races. Machen sports two workouts between his maiden win and his allowance win on Saturday. The Performance side of the equation checks out.
Now for the Pedigree. From the top, this horse has a mix of speed and stamina influences on both side of the pedigree. Mixed in with some brilliance from his Dam. Ready's Gal who was a stakes winner and is the daughter of More than Ready who finished 4th in the Derby. His sire traces to the solid middle distance influence of Halo. The inbreeding on Machen is very interesting. Machen is inbred to full brothers Mr. Prospector and Search for Gold. Mr. Prospector was by Raise a Native out of a Gold Digger mare. He is found on the sire side of Machen. On the female tail, Search for Gold is found in the 4th generation of Ready's Gal. Search for Gold is by Raise a Native out of Gold Digger and was born in 1969, with Mr. Prospector being born in 1970. For pedigree purists this is a fun one and Courtlandt Farm pedigree gurus must have stayed up late at night to come up with this mix!
#2 To Honor and Serve: Gets second billing because of a stronger Juvenile foundation to work with. The best thing that happened to THAS was that he lost his first race. Since he is longer "undefeated" they can focus on winning races and peaking on Derby Day. This fetish with undefeated records in recent year's has caused many a horse to be "short" come the first Saturday in May. To Honor and Serve has 4 races under his belt. Two stakes races and a 9 furlong race as a juvenile. His recent workout activity is "slow" compared to the "super" trainer workout patterns, but this is old school Bill Mott at the helm, his most recent workout was 5 furlongs, strong foundation of workouts and races as a Juvenile bodes well for his ability to get back to top form quickly, which The Fountain of Youth is shaping up as a strong comeback race on February 26th.
The pedigree pundits are happy with the mix of A.P Indy, Deputy Minister, Nijinsky II, Secretariat and Spectacular Bid all found in his first four generations. In recent years they are basically your "classic" distance horses. A March 18th foal he has a solid mix of speed and stamina on both sides of the pedigree with a solid running style. My gut instinct says that he was "on the lead" as a juvenile in 3 of his 4 races because he was just plain faster than the competition. As a three-year old, look for him to be just off the pace and wear down the competition with 24 second quarters. Very exciting prospect.
#3 Uncle Mo: We want Mo! Mo activity, Mo workouts. With no races and only one workout. I'm leaving Mo #3 until he races as a sophomore. Nothing new to report here. His maiden breaker at Saratoga stole the show on Travers Day, his Breeder's Cup victory was as crisp and clean as the Churchill air that afternoon. Undefeated and maybe being "babied" just a wee bit so far this year.
Pedigree, mixed signals. Sire Indian Charlie has sired early-developing fast sprinters, who have been able to go fast up to a mile. Indian Charlie himself was lightly raced and finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and was trained by Bob Baffert. Uncle Mo's career so far is very similar to Indian Charlie. Very fast, highly publicized, bet down in every race, but ultimately just not a 12 furlong horse. Despite that, with a 108 speed figure as a juvenile and runs with a very methodical stride, has the ability to quickly accelerate and like To Honor and Serve I think he was just faster than everyone as a Juvenile and may ultimately be able to rate. Just getting into shape and very formidable. Let's not "crown" him just yet.
#4 Santiva: A personal favorite. Solid juvenile foundation, ran three strong races and broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in a stakes race. Can race on the lead or just off the pace. Has shown more of a grinding style so far and not a raw speed type, should "age" well and be a factor. Possibly the Risen Star or Fountain of Youth for his comeback race.
Pedigree, Giant's Causeway on Top, adds, speed, brilliance and a touch of class to a speedy pedigree on the bottom. Second Dam Safely Home was the dam of the brilliant sprinter Safely Kept. This pedigree is very classy and is a "racing" pedigree. Anxious to see him develop this year.
#5 Elite Alex: Only one start as a Juvenile. But his debut at Oaklawn Park as a Juvenile, left we wanting more. Left at the gate and trailing the field most of the way, "Alex" came late to party, while running wide and looking very competitive in the lane. Next up the Southwest for this son of Afleet Alex.
Pedigree: Afleet Alex was just a very good horse, short, long, lots of heart and class. Ran his race every time and carried his "track" with him, running strong races at every track. Gets stamina from Unbridled who is the sire of his dam Catch the Moment. Female side also includes distance influences Nureyev, Graustark and Secretariat. Very intrigued by Alex and thought about him in the 4th spot.
#6: Dialed In: Holy Bull was not a fluke. Stone Cold stretch run was an eye-opener and this followed a Maiden win that had everyone abuzz at Churchill Downs. Not much left to say. He's for real. Trained by Zito. Strong pedigree and recent races and workouts are perfectly spaced. Has the earnings, long-term it may have been better to "lose" and lose the undefeated" status, Nick Zito is already second guessing on whether to run in the Fountain of Youth or not. If he sits on the shelf too long, he will have to crank him up late.
#7 Cool Blue Red Hot: I like him. Got run into the ground by Soldat in the Gulfstream Slop. But that was after pressuring the pace the the whole way. Third quarter was a sub :24 quarter. His maiden win he came from 8 lengths off the pace. Look for him to go back to closing and will be extremely tough in his next race. This horse has a strong foundation. Recent works. Pedigree is a little light on the class side. But contains distance influences in A. P. Indy, Affirmed and Secretariat on both sides of the pedigree. Needs to step up in his next race.
#8 Soldat: May have "freaked" in the slop at Gulfstream. Has class and a strong Juvenile foundation. I'm still a believer in seasoning and losing races. Barbaro and Smarty Jones were both undefeated, but both were tested on their way to the Derby. Soldat has run in Graded Races, defeated top turf horses and has the earnings. Possible for the Fountain of Youth, does not need the lead and has a pedigree with "mud" and middle distance influences. Round Table on the female side answers some distance questions. Could get the carpet yanked out on him in the Fountain of Youth, or may ride the magic carpet all the way to Kentucky. Has the earnings and trainer and foundation. Needs to just stay the course.
Those are my eight most likely candidates to wear roses. I think after that group there is a large drop off to horses that have potential, or a strong pedigree, but not both and with recent activity. Here are some more names to chew on in the coming month.
J. P's Gusto: Like it or not has the earnings, has been working forwardly for a return in the San Vincente or Beverly Lewis. Looks like 10 furlongs may be too long, but is classy and is working strongly and has solid foundation of races.
Tapizar: Ran on the Santa Anita Speed Highway in early January. To be honest that track is so messed up with recent final times, I have no idea how to put in context. Garrett Gomez rides and has won two in a row. Son of Pulpit has potential.
The Factor: Baffert trained. Only one race. Has to pull a "Congaree" and get good also get good fast.
Runflatout: Can falt out run. Monster debut over the weekend. Sub 6 furlongs in under 1:08. Stupidly fast times out West. Very talented but only one super fast horse can emerge from out west, unless they spread out and go to Oaklawn, the Fairgrounds and Sunland.
Monzon: Next Up the Sam F Davis. Two for Two on dirt. Strong close at Aqueduct. Son of Thunder Gulch is a runner.
Brethren: The more talented brother of Super Saver. Has only two races. But his race at Churchill Downs in the fall was with a wide trip and showed a lot of "moxy" Like this horse but they may be rushing a little bit. Also goes in the Sam Davis a win in that race, puts him in the Bullseye Mix.
Indian Winter: Another son of Indian Charlie, this one on the West Coast. Jerry Hollendorfer trained. Won for fun in his most recent start. Next stretching out, has some experience.
Comma to The Top: Racing wise he belongs in the top four. Has been working fast and should be ready for whatever race they put him in on February 12th. Has class, but yet to run on traditional Dirt and may face too many other speed balls.
Boys at Tosconova: The negative is the distance breeding. Also only defeated a four horse field in the stakes win, was no match for Uncle Mo in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. The horse is being wisely rested. But I think most handicappers have their doubts on this horse. A look at the Louisville Courier Derby poll shows a lot of people leaving him out of their top 10, which is unusual since he has the earnings. I think he is this year's "Wizard of Oz" horse, once you pull away the curtain....
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