March 1 Derby Prospectus

This year's Derby watch had an uneventful February.  Uncle Mo is still a No Show.  Not much change in my top eight.  Until something develops, I'm still leaning top heavy on the number of contenders.

#1  To Honor and Serve:  Honesty what was the game plan in the Fountain of Youth?  Did Bill Mott not get the memo from last year and Buddy's Saint?  When a horse plans a 2-race attack to the Roses, the first start back must be very good.  Of course after the loss on Saturday, I started going back through the racing forms.  I can find one horse who started in the Kentucky Derby since 1989 who won a 9 furlong race after a 60 layoff after his Juvenile season.  The one horse was Express Tour, who won in Dubai.  The most similar horses who lost in a 9 furlong debut in their Sophomore season?  Well basically the list is filled with Sham and Remsen runners.  Empire Make who ran second in the Sham.  Proud Citizen who ran off the board in the Santa Anita Derby.  Friends Lake, who won the Florida Derby at 30/1 after getting trounced in his seasonal debut.  Tapit also rebounded with a win in the Wood following a loss at 9 furlongs off a long layoff.  Good horses lose races in many different ways.  R Heat Lightning started off the year with a dismal performance, then on Saturday came up big in her 2nd start of the year.  To Honor and Serve is good.  I'm sticking with him.

#2  Uncle Mo:  I want Mo, More Workouts, More Races, More Hype...  Well we have enough hype.  The Timely Writer?  Remember when the Miami Hurricanes used to win national titles and begin the next season playing NE Louisiana Tech, this is what Uncle Mo will be doing in the Timely Writer?  I'm not a fan of two race campaigns getting ready for the Derby, even less so of one start getting ready for the Derby.  I don't think it's possible to be more lightly trained.  He recorded very few published workouts as a Juvenile as well.

#3  Santiva:  Was game at the Fairgrounds losing to Mucho Macho Man.  Strong breeding and I think has the ability to be taken back farther off the pace and close.  Next race still undetermined, but likely the top five from the Risen Star will all get a rematch in the Louisiana Derby.  The Fairgrounds surface was very tiring on Risen Star day, no cheap speed horses did any damage all day long.  Strong conditioning race for the son of Giant's Causeway.

#4  Soldat:  Took advantaged of a perfect trip, on a front-running rail biased track on Youth day.  Has a very high running stride and runs with his head very high and does not have long efficient stride.  In perfect form.  Trainer indicating he may be taken off the pace in the Florida Derby.  Talented, may be peaking too soon.

#5  Machen:  His Risen Star race is a much better race than looked.  He spotted the field 3 lengths out of the gate.  Ran wide on the turn, still closed and through in a sub :24 third quarter.  With three races and multiple workouts, this horse is sharp, fit and getting better.  Look for a jock switch in the Louisiana Derby.

#6   Brethren:  Undefeated, Untested and ready for the Tampa Bay Derby.  Has efficient stride and has shown the ability to rate and draw off.  Speed Figures was slow in last race, but first start was a sub 1:09 on a fast Saratoga trip.  This horses has lots of upside.

#7  Mucho Macho Man:  Will be one of the few horses with three starts going to Louisville.  Long Stride, galloped out nice in the Risen Star.  A June 15th foal.  Has strong Juvenile form.  Lots to like and few negatives.  Like the fact he has race on multiple surfaces.  Could have a major conditioning edge over a few of the late bloomers.

#8  Sway Away:  Great breeding.  Will have three preps in Sophomore season, one of the few horses who have made "The Move" his close in the San Vincente was legit.  If your not familiar with "The Move"  think Monarchos at Gulfstream.  Thats the look that Sway Away had finishing fast in the San Vincente, if he is able to sustain "The Move" in his next start!  Afleet Alex and Seattle Slew is very close in the pedigree.  Strong workouts for over six weeks in 2011.  Oaklawn or Santa Anita for start number two.  Next race will reveal plenty.

The Next Group:
Astrology, workouts are up to six furlongs, solid foundation, needs to run big in the San Felipe.  Jaycito, nice workout tab, ready to race and still could improve off juvenile form.  Rogue Romance heading back to Louisiana for next prep, still working his way into shape.  May not be fast enough.  Gourmet Dinner, runs his race and is making a lot of money!  Stay Thirsty, Monzon and Toby's Corner all race in the Gotham this week.  Winner advances to the Top 12 discussion.  Dialed In.  Done nothing wrong, but need to determine his next race first.