With more blogs posting weekly top contenders lists, I will post a Horses that I'm watching list. Then come back the first week of February with an updated top 10. In case you missed it, the man who started the Derby Watch: Steve Haskin is up with his first list of the year.
With the modern day road to the Derby, involving less starts it seems superficial to rank Uncle Mo #1 on any list until he has even ran in 2011. Much less do weekly updates with none of the three or four contenders not having raced.
Since the NFL playoffs are starting this week: I will do my rankings by seeding them in brackets by where they are training and where they might run their final prep races.
1st Round Byes: Many of these horses won't race until February
East:
#1 Seed: Uncle Mo: Undefeated, untested, unchallelleged, can't think of any more "u's". Mo made the Breeders Cup Juvenile field say "Uncle". Not much else left to say. His victory at Saratoga on the Traver's undercard stole the show! I have been following then ponies since 1987. His maiden victory is easily one of the top three performances I have seen in a maiden breaker. Sunday Silence is still #1, but it was Sunday's second career start and Uncle Mo did it in his first start. Wood Memorial looking like final Derby Prep. If that's true. It may be hard to to get a full field to test Mo before the Derby.
South:
#1 Seed: To Honor and Serve: Strong juvenile campaign, highlighted by 9 furlong stakes win at Aqueduct. Natural speed and weak fields put him on the lead in his last two starts. Have a gut feeling his final prep may be the Arkansas Derby or Louisiana Derby. Pointing to a February return in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream.
West:
#1 Seed: Comma to the Top: Closed out Juvenile campaign with five straight wins. If horse racing had a national Media Guide, we could look up the last Juvenile to win a Grade 1 and finish the year with 5 Juvenile wins. But it doesn't so before I get riled up and regress further. Comma was very impressive in the Hollywood Futurity. Poly may not have been around that long, but I saw very horses wire the field on the Poly over the last few years and Comma did it twice. First in the Real Quiet and then in the Futurity. Like the fact he is considering three starts before the Derby. Compared to Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve he looks more comfortable on the lead, rather than tracking. Dare I say the best front runner since Lost Code? Hopefully he can collect just as many Derby's. I expect him to stay out West and use the Santa Anita Derby as his final prep.
North:
#1 Seed: Tiz Blessed: Since the final major preps "North" involve either the Hawthorne Derby or the Bluegrass, I will place Tiz Blessed as the #1 seed, since he owns a major win on the Poly at Woodbine. The race was impressive and the breeding says "can do". 1A Would have to be Santiva. He race on the Turf, Poly and Dirt as a Juvenile, closing out his Freshman campaign with a gutty win at Churchill Downs. Looks like the first top matchup of the spring might be Santiva and To Honor and Serve in the Fountain of Youth.
1st Round Byes:
These horses have the earnings to qualify for the Derby, or a top 3 finish in a major Prep puts them right on the Edge:
Boys at Tosconova: Finished 2nd to Uncle Mo in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Of the major contenders, I see this horse having the most trouble at 10 furlongs. Planning a 2-prep campaign to the Derby and with a running style that is similar to the rest of the top contenders something has to give.
Clubhouse Ride: Third place finished in the Delta Jackpot and Hollywood Futurity have him on the fringe of Derby earnings. Two starts to get the rest in 2011 before the Derby.
Gourmet Dinner: 20-1 upset at Delta, hit the Jackpot for the Florida bred, ran evenly out West on the "Artificial" surface, goes back home and already has the earnings. PR wise Gourmet Dinner "wins" Derby is not a headline that Horse Racing needs right now. So he has strong negative vibes in that department.
Jaycito: Flopped at Churchill by taking a Right Turn Clyde to the Clubhouse, but it was cold and maybe he expected their to be "heating coils" at the Breeder's Cup. Has lots of Graded Dollars in the bank, and his owner will send him. Let's see what Bob Baffert does with him this spring. Again only two preps expected.
Astrology: Asmussen trainee, out West, will have multiple options to get to the Derby, has lots of earnings and had a foundation-building juvenile campaign. May not be flashy and have the sexy speed figures. But has a nice pedigree, sound racing bottom, multiple races over the Churchill track and Graded Earnings. Just add a healthy spring and a good post come Derby Day. Might try the Sunland Derby route to Kentucky.
Wild Cards:
This is what Derby Fever is all about. Basically we have 16 prep races to determine the final 10 Derby starting berths. The top 8 horses with Derby earnings are already in the field barring injury.
Brethren: Super Savers 1/2 brother, same mom, different dad. This Dad is the prodigous Distorted Humor. Who has already sired Funny Cide to a Derby win. His Allowance win at Churchill was strong, nice final time and won with a long sustained bid while running wide from the start. Room to improve. Look for at Tampa Bay.
Sheriff Cogburn: Has not run since destroying a field at Prairie Meadows last Summer. Needs to get back in training soon. Nice pedigree, solid Midwest trainer. Owned by Toby Keith. Look for at Oaklawn Park. One to keep an eye on.
Machen: Anyone who saw this Distorted Humor colt last Sunday was left impressed. Trained by the ultra conservative Neil Howard. Low efficient stride, this horse does not use any energy, should be able to run all day with his quick, low stride. Will probably stay in Louisiana.
Tapizar: Nice win at Churchill to close out 2010 in Stars of Tomorrow card. Trained by Steve Asmussen. Training out at Santa Anita.
Premier Pegasus: Nice looking colt showed speed and grit as a Juvenile, has the pedigree to stretch out and trainer has a small stable and is often ignored has a history of having his horses outrun their odds. Targeting the Sham Stakes on January 15th.
The Factor: Bob Baffert trainee, wowed them on opening day at Santa Anita, came back with a 102 speed figure. Two races as a juvenile. Stride not as efficient and low impact as Machen. Don't forget, Baffert likes Sunland as a prep race.
Classic Legacy/Sinai: Two more for Bob Baffert. Classic Legacy made a premature move in a Stakes Races at Woodbine. Then did not like the Bull Ring. Look for him to bounce back in the Sham Stakes. Looks like honest horse who will take some beating and has a strong juvenile foundation that has him fit and ready to cash some Graded Derby earnings in the next few months. Sinai. Leggy colt broke his maiden at first asking. Lack of experience but right trainer and the pedigree to consider.
Wilcox Inn: Raced on turf as a juvenile. May go to the dirt. Strong form. Just a hunch that they might try on dirt this spring.
Rogue Romance: Training at Gulfstream. May ship to run in 2011. Ran third in Breeder's Cup juvenile, so a top three finish puts him in the gate by Graded earnings. Son of Smarty Jones seems to have a following at the mutual windows.
Monzon: Won the Count Fleet stakes this past Saturday. But the way he did it was very impressive. Came from dead last on the Inner Dirt Track. By Thunder Gulch. Has strong Juvenile Form. Class tested next at Tampa Bay in the Sam Davis.
Red Hot Cold Blue: Training in Florida. Ran second to Buffum in Maiden event in New York. Then went to Calder and won for fun at 1/5. Nice trainer, strong foundation, a chip and a chair is all you need sometimes.
So there's a first down and dirty look at the top contenders/pretenders for the 2011 Kentucky Derby. Compared to previous year's. Top contenders look very strong. Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, and Santiva all are above last year's two year olds in terms of foundation for early January.
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