Chaos in the Louisiana Derby couple with the performance of Animal Kingdom in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park. Shook up the bottom half the Derby rankings, but did little to shake out the top contenders. The Florida Derby next Sunday should emerge as the Key Prep, Dialed In, Soldat and To Honor and Serve highlight a compact field of 7 possible expiated for the marquee event in Florida.
#1: To Honor and Serve. Still maintains the top ranking, working steadily since his six length defeat by Soldat in the Fountain of Youth. The Run for the Roses is slowly being reduced to a one "prep" campaign. The small field and the the intentions of Soldat saying they may rate, may put To Honor and Serve on a "loose" lead in the Florida Derby. Gets Garrett Gomez for the first time who is as his best on the lead with a classy horse. No excuses will be allowed in the Florida Derby. Mott may has miscalculated running him two nine furlong races as a Juvenile and bringing him back at nine panels for his 3 year old debut. The number of horses who have came away with a nine furlong win off the bench in the first start as a Sophomore campaign can be counted on one hand in the last 20 years of preps. Mott has had a "cold" barn this spring and he reported on At the Races that To Honor and Serve had put on some weight since the Fountain of Youth. His Juvenile campaign was strong, 2nd best to Uncle Mo and a strong Florida Derby run gives him five weeks to tighten the screws for Louisville.
#2: Uncle Mo: Possible the most lightly raced and lightly worked horse coming into April of his Sophomore season being pointed for the Derby. Has Speed and strong gallop out in the Timely Writer was very impressive. Hopefully Jaycito makes him work a little in the Wood, as that is the only contender that can give him trouble before the 20 horse Traffic Jam known as the Derby.
#3: Anthony's Cross: Moves up mainly because of strong recent work tab. Nice Breeding strong connections. Eoin Harty has been toughening him up lately. Six Furlongs followed by a four furlong bullet. Maybe this is the right Indian Charlie in the 2011 Derby.
#4: Santiva: Being pointed for the Bluegrass. Strong Gallops, has been staying in Florida since shipping back from the Risen Star. Solid Pedigree, good running style, has the ability to rate and the Poly race at Keeneland should be the tightener that he needs before Louisville. Slowly improving from a speed figure standpoint and ran a tremendous race against the bias in the Breeder's Futurity last fall. Horses on the rail that day did well and the outside lanes were up against it that afternoon.
#5 Premier Pegasus: Strong pedigree, looked visually impressive in the San Felipe closing into the hot pace. Old school training, 3 sprints then stretched out nicely has a strong bottom and should get tested on the front end in the Santa Anita Derby by Anthony's Cross. Winner of the Santa Anita Derby emerges as a strong threat.
#6 Dialed In: Nick Zito has been light on the work tab with this son of Mineshaft. But reports say he has been galloping strong 2 mile to 2 1/2 miles in the morning. This horse may prove the right one can close has raw speed and is slowly being conditioned into a "route" horse. Fly Down last year was very similar, lots of speed but one run, was able to stay in the Belmont and ran on in the Travers. Nick mixing it up and trying to figure out the formula. Florida Derby may be tough if the field comes up light and the fractions are "soft" he would like a Soldat and To Honor and Serve Duel, to set him up for the Stretch run. May well see his best race in Louisville.
#7: Astrology: Made long awaited debut in Sunland Park Derby. A P Indy son is always well supported at the windows Sunland Derby showed improvement, raced wide, made a mid-race move and tired late. Few horses have won their Sophomore debuts at 9 furlongs. Main knock has been his "slow" speed figures. But has faced classy animals defeating To Honor and Serve in his maiden breaker, showed a lot of heart in his Iroquois win and then a tough second in the Jockey Club loss to Santiva. Rough to go to Derby with one start, maybe the Illinois Derby would be the perfect spot?
#8 Brethren: I think a strong rebound is likely in the Arkansas Derby much like Super Saver. Tampa Bay was kind to closers on the Tampa Bay Derby day. Pressed a contested pace, fractions were slow, but has in the Meat Grinder from Flag Fall all the way to the second turn. If they can get him to rate in the Arkansas Derby or a less contested pace and he may rebound at a price.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
March 1 Derby Prospectus
This year's Derby watch had an uneventful February. Uncle Mo is still a No Show. Not much change in my top eight. Until something develops, I'm still leaning top heavy on the number of contenders.
#1 To Honor and Serve: Honesty what was the game plan in the Fountain of Youth? Did Bill Mott not get the memo from last year and Buddy's Saint? When a horse plans a 2-race attack to the Roses, the first start back must be very good. Of course after the loss on Saturday, I started going back through the racing forms. I can find one horse who started in the Kentucky Derby since 1989 who won a 9 furlong race after a 60 layoff after his Juvenile season. The one horse was Express Tour, who won in Dubai. The most similar horses who lost in a 9 furlong debut in their Sophomore season? Well basically the list is filled with Sham and Remsen runners. Empire Make who ran second in the Sham. Proud Citizen who ran off the board in the Santa Anita Derby. Friends Lake, who won the Florida Derby at 30/1 after getting trounced in his seasonal debut. Tapit also rebounded with a win in the Wood following a loss at 9 furlongs off a long layoff. Good horses lose races in many different ways. R Heat Lightning started off the year with a dismal performance, then on Saturday came up big in her 2nd start of the year. To Honor and Serve is good. I'm sticking with him.
#2 Uncle Mo: I want Mo, More Workouts, More Races, More Hype... Well we have enough hype. The Timely Writer? Remember when the Miami Hurricanes used to win national titles and begin the next season playing NE Louisiana Tech, this is what Uncle Mo will be doing in the Timely Writer? I'm not a fan of two race campaigns getting ready for the Derby, even less so of one start getting ready for the Derby. I don't think it's possible to be more lightly trained. He recorded very few published workouts as a Juvenile as well.
#3 Santiva: Was game at the Fairgrounds losing to Mucho Macho Man. Strong breeding and I think has the ability to be taken back farther off the pace and close. Next race still undetermined, but likely the top five from the Risen Star will all get a rematch in the Louisiana Derby. The Fairgrounds surface was very tiring on Risen Star day, no cheap speed horses did any damage all day long. Strong conditioning race for the son of Giant's Causeway.
#4 Soldat: Took advantaged of a perfect trip, on a front-running rail biased track on Youth day. Has a very high running stride and runs with his head very high and does not have long efficient stride. In perfect form. Trainer indicating he may be taken off the pace in the Florida Derby. Talented, may be peaking too soon.
#5 Machen: His Risen Star race is a much better race than looked. He spotted the field 3 lengths out of the gate. Ran wide on the turn, still closed and through in a sub :24 third quarter. With three races and multiple workouts, this horse is sharp, fit and getting better. Look for a jock switch in the Louisiana Derby.
#6 Brethren: Undefeated, Untested and ready for the Tampa Bay Derby. Has efficient stride and has shown the ability to rate and draw off. Speed Figures was slow in last race, but first start was a sub 1:09 on a fast Saratoga trip. This horses has lots of upside.
#7 Mucho Macho Man: Will be one of the few horses with three starts going to Louisville. Long Stride, galloped out nice in the Risen Star. A June 15th foal. Has strong Juvenile form. Lots to like and few negatives. Like the fact he has race on multiple surfaces. Could have a major conditioning edge over a few of the late bloomers.
#8 Sway Away: Great breeding. Will have three preps in Sophomore season, one of the few horses who have made "The Move" his close in the San Vincente was legit. If your not familiar with "The Move" think Monarchos at Gulfstream. Thats the look that Sway Away had finishing fast in the San Vincente, if he is able to sustain "The Move" in his next start! Afleet Alex and Seattle Slew is very close in the pedigree. Strong workouts for over six weeks in 2011. Oaklawn or Santa Anita for start number two. Next race will reveal plenty.
The Next Group:
Astrology, workouts are up to six furlongs, solid foundation, needs to run big in the San Felipe. Jaycito, nice workout tab, ready to race and still could improve off juvenile form. Rogue Romance heading back to Louisiana for next prep, still working his way into shape. May not be fast enough. Gourmet Dinner, runs his race and is making a lot of money! Stay Thirsty, Monzon and Toby's Corner all race in the Gotham this week. Winner advances to the Top 12 discussion. Dialed In. Done nothing wrong, but need to determine his next race first.
#1 To Honor and Serve: Honesty what was the game plan in the Fountain of Youth? Did Bill Mott not get the memo from last year and Buddy's Saint? When a horse plans a 2-race attack to the Roses, the first start back must be very good. Of course after the loss on Saturday, I started going back through the racing forms. I can find one horse who started in the Kentucky Derby since 1989 who won a 9 furlong race after a 60 layoff after his Juvenile season. The one horse was Express Tour, who won in Dubai. The most similar horses who lost in a 9 furlong debut in their Sophomore season? Well basically the list is filled with Sham and Remsen runners. Empire Make who ran second in the Sham. Proud Citizen who ran off the board in the Santa Anita Derby. Friends Lake, who won the Florida Derby at 30/1 after getting trounced in his seasonal debut. Tapit also rebounded with a win in the Wood following a loss at 9 furlongs off a long layoff. Good horses lose races in many different ways. R Heat Lightning started off the year with a dismal performance, then on Saturday came up big in her 2nd start of the year. To Honor and Serve is good. I'm sticking with him.
#2 Uncle Mo: I want Mo, More Workouts, More Races, More Hype... Well we have enough hype. The Timely Writer? Remember when the Miami Hurricanes used to win national titles and begin the next season playing NE Louisiana Tech, this is what Uncle Mo will be doing in the Timely Writer? I'm not a fan of two race campaigns getting ready for the Derby, even less so of one start getting ready for the Derby. I don't think it's possible to be more lightly trained. He recorded very few published workouts as a Juvenile as well.
#3 Santiva: Was game at the Fairgrounds losing to Mucho Macho Man. Strong breeding and I think has the ability to be taken back farther off the pace and close. Next race still undetermined, but likely the top five from the Risen Star will all get a rematch in the Louisiana Derby. The Fairgrounds surface was very tiring on Risen Star day, no cheap speed horses did any damage all day long. Strong conditioning race for the son of Giant's Causeway.
#4 Soldat: Took advantaged of a perfect trip, on a front-running rail biased track on Youth day. Has a very high running stride and runs with his head very high and does not have long efficient stride. In perfect form. Trainer indicating he may be taken off the pace in the Florida Derby. Talented, may be peaking too soon.
#5 Machen: His Risen Star race is a much better race than looked. He spotted the field 3 lengths out of the gate. Ran wide on the turn, still closed and through in a sub :24 third quarter. With three races and multiple workouts, this horse is sharp, fit and getting better. Look for a jock switch in the Louisiana Derby.
#6 Brethren: Undefeated, Untested and ready for the Tampa Bay Derby. Has efficient stride and has shown the ability to rate and draw off. Speed Figures was slow in last race, but first start was a sub 1:09 on a fast Saratoga trip. This horses has lots of upside.
#7 Mucho Macho Man: Will be one of the few horses with three starts going to Louisville. Long Stride, galloped out nice in the Risen Star. A June 15th foal. Has strong Juvenile form. Lots to like and few negatives. Like the fact he has race on multiple surfaces. Could have a major conditioning edge over a few of the late bloomers.
#8 Sway Away: Great breeding. Will have three preps in Sophomore season, one of the few horses who have made "The Move" his close in the San Vincente was legit. If your not familiar with "The Move" think Monarchos at Gulfstream. Thats the look that Sway Away had finishing fast in the San Vincente, if he is able to sustain "The Move" in his next start! Afleet Alex and Seattle Slew is very close in the pedigree. Strong workouts for over six weeks in 2011. Oaklawn or Santa Anita for start number two. Next race will reveal plenty.
The Next Group:
Astrology, workouts are up to six furlongs, solid foundation, needs to run big in the San Felipe. Jaycito, nice workout tab, ready to race and still could improve off juvenile form. Rogue Romance heading back to Louisiana for next prep, still working his way into shape. May not be fast enough. Gourmet Dinner, runs his race and is making a lot of money! Stay Thirsty, Monzon and Toby's Corner all race in the Gotham this week. Winner advances to the Top 12 discussion. Dialed In. Done nothing wrong, but need to determine his next race first.
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