An impressive maiden performance by the Todd Pletcher trained Cal Nation on Saturday drew raves from some bloggers and raised questions from others. Is Cal Nation too late on the scene?
My gut instinct was to refer to the curse of 1882 and Apollo as the last Derby Winner, who didn't race as a Juvenile. But in recent years as horses become lightly raced, it is inevitable, that the winner of the Kentucky Derby in the next few years will not have raced as a Juvenile.
With that in mind I started searching past Derby winners to see exactly when did racing "jump the shark" into the current state of lightly raced activity?
Stop searching, you may not like the answer you are looking for, is a line from the original Planet of the Apes, and in this case, it may be true!
Is it possible the success from the top two horses of the sophomore class of 1989 may have contributed to this mess?
Let's enter the way-back machine with Mr. Peabody and Sherman back to the year 1989. Sunday Silence with just three starts as a Juvenile and only one win and no races debuts as a three year old on March 2, 1989. Winning by 4 lengths in 1:15 and 2/5! The Bald Eagle wheeled him back on March 19th in the San Felipe. Sir Charles then tightened the screws three weeks later winning the Santa Anita Derby by a widening 11 lengths. Three races in six weeks and did not run a route rate until March 19th.
Meanwhile back out East. Easy Goer was emerging from a winter of hibernation. After a 6 race juvenile campaign, Shug McGaughey didn't let Easy Goer out of the barn until March 4th 1989 winning the swale stakes by 8 lengths.
By those standards Cal Nation is a full month ahead of schedule!
Another interesting horse on the Derby trail this year is Machen. Never racing as a juvenile and heading towards the Risen Star Stakes on February 19th. His trainer is Neil Howard. Neil Howard trained Summer Squall to a 2nd place Derby finish in 1990. Summer Squall did not race until March 17th of his 3-year old season. With two races and three works in the last month, Machen is weeks ahead in conditioning that Summer Squall was in 1989. Also note that Summer Squall was unraced from August 26th of his Juvenile season to March 17th.
Hansel the 1991 Preakness winner debuted with a 11 length loss on February 23rd in 1990 in the Fountain of Youth. Hansel responded with a 3rd in the Florida Derby before winning the Jim Beam and then the Lexington Stakes.
Best Pal - 2nd in the 1991 Derby did not race as a sophomore until March 3, 1991!
D Wayne Lukas adds fuel to the fire with Timber Country waiting until March 4 for his debut in 1995. Grindstone came off the shelf in mid February 1996 and won the roses in May.
Uncle Mo is scheduled to run his first race on March 12th. Whenever I look at Uncle Mo's past performances, his most "similar" past performances are those of his sire Indian Charlie.
Indian Charlie, ran one race as a Juvenile winning a maiden race by 12 lengths at Delmar. Uncle Mo broke his Maiden by 14 lengths at Saratoga. Indian Charlie won his 2nd race by 9 lengths in a four horse field. Uncle Mo won his 2nd race by 4 lenghts in a 5-horse field. Indian Charlie won his 4th career start the Grade 1 Santa anita Derby by 2.5 lenghts. Uncle Mo won the BC Juvenile by 3 lengths in his 3rd start! Uncanny! Indian Charlie did not debut until February 22nd of his Sophomore season.
Fusaichi Pegasus debuted at three on February 19th winning a NW of 1 allowance.
One may have to re-evaluate the Derby chase. Maybe it's not about seasoning. Maybe it's about striking when the iron is hot!
Who would have thought that waiting on a horse until near March would have been out of the playbook from two of the "oldest" school horseman. Charlie Whittingham and Shug McGaughey!
So there may still be plenty of time for Cal Nation!
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