Two Starts vs Three Starts before the Derby in 2011?

If 50 has become the new 40, then 2 has become the new 3 on the Kentucky Derby Trail.  For many years three or four starts was preferred for horses "prepping" for the Derby, then three starts became the norm.  Since 2007, Street Sense, Big Brown, Mine That Bird and Super Saver have all taken the roses with just two starts as a sophomore before winning in Churchill.

From 2000 to 2006 the Kentucky Derby winners recorded 3 or 4 starts as a three year-old before winning the Derby:
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus - 4 previous 3 year old starts.
2001 - Monarchos - 4
2002 - War Emblem - 4
2003 - Funny Cide - 3
2004 - Smarty Jones - 4
2005 - Giacomo - 3
2006 - Barbaro - 3

With the last four winners all having 2 starts as a three year-old, we can see wear the trend line is going.  Overall it may not be good for Horse Racing.

For 2011 top contenders Uncle Mo, and To Honor and Serve have already laid out plans for a 2-start campaign before Louisville.  In recent years trainers have focused on getting the necessarily earnings and getting to the Derby, one wonders if they are winning the war, but losing the race.  Mine That Bird and Super Saver never visited the winner's circle again.  Big Brown only raced one time after the Belmont and Street Sense lost the Preakness and did not event run in the Belmont.  Basically the trainers are putting all their eggs in the proverbial "Derby Basket".

If horses only have two starts before the Derby, and then are being asked to run 3 starts in 5 weeks at increasing distances.  The most recent Triple Crown near misses involved "battle-tested" horses such as Charismatic, Real Quite, Silver Charm recorded 13, 12 and 9 career starts heading into their Triple Crown seasons.

Looking back to 1983.  Sunny's Halo only had 2 preps as a three year-old before winning the Derby in his third Start.  But Sunny's Halo had 11 Juvenile Starts in which to build a sound foundation.  His wins in the spring of '83 before the Derby included a 4 length win in a 14 horse Arkansas Derby Field.

That's why it's refreshing to hear that Peter Miller is thinking about 3 starts for Comma to Top.  With enough earnings and closing out the year with 5 straight wins, Comma to the top, could be put on the shelf and given some time off.  But with his running style and how strong he has been finishing his recent races, he may be "old school" and need the racing.

Given their choice most trainers would opt for 2 starts before the Derby, but because of the earnings requirements, any horses that gets into January without any earnings, basically has to win one of the prep races.

This year Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, Santiva, Boys At Tosconova, Comma to the Top, Gourmet Dinner all are well ahead on earnings to get in the Derby gate.  Of those 6 horses, only Comma to the Top and Gourmet Dinner have expressed any interest in running three prep races.

Will we start seeing horses attempt the Derby with only 1 Prep Start?   From looking at the last 40 year's of Data it doesn't look pretty.  10 horses have ran in the Derby with just one Sophomore prep.  The best finish was Eltish and China Vist who both finished 6th.  The rest of the results are even uglier!  Dr. Devious 7th, Arazi 8th, Express Tour 8th, Castle Gandolfo 12th, Johannesburg 8th.  None of the 10 horses who ran in the Derby with only 1 start as a 3 year-old could manage even a 5th place finish.  So for now, it looks like the baseline has been set.  Get the 2 year old earnings, then start scheduling a 2 race campaign for Louisville.