A tale of two preps last week ignited some friendly online chatter and debate on the the merits of the Derby and Oaks prospects of Soldat and Kathmanblu.
Soldat defeated a small but quality field at Gulfstream and emerged with a 10 length win. Many handicappers are writing this off as a "slop" induced result. Meanwhile Kathmanblu went to the turf and made short work of her field and solidified herself as one of the favorites for the Oaks, why the difference?
In recent years many horses have made an impact in the Derby starting their careers on the lawn. Since 1970, 694 horses have started in the Derby. Of those 694 horses 35 of them debuted on the turf course before eventually moving to the dirt for their run for the roses.
In recent years the turf to dirt trend has been magnified with more horses making the switch and success has followed. Sir Tristram began his career on the turf in 1973 and finished 11th in the 1974 Derby. Following Sir Tristram there was a long drought with no horse attempting that non-traditional career path on the way to Kentucky until 1986 when Bold Arrangement finished 2nd.
Since 2000, 25 of the 35 starters have appeared on the grass in a debut race before eventually moving to the lawn. That does not include horses who raced on the turf before entering the Derby starting gate but didn't begin their career on the lawn like Soldat.
In the past decade the only year the derby field has not had a derby started who started his career on the lawn was 2003 and 2007. In 2003 Peace Rules ran a strong race in Louisville with 3 of his five wins entering the Derby recorded on the Turf. In 2007 Sedgefield and Storm in May both had multiple attempts on the lawn before going "off the turf", Barbaro won the derby in 2006, Big Brown followed up with a victory in 2008 after running one race as a Juvenile on the grass. Pioneerof the Nile finished 2nd in 2009.
Now let's relate this to Soldat's performance last week at Gulfstream. Soldat began his career on the dirt with two 5.5 furlong races. Then moved to the turf and established his class with a G3 win and Breeder's Cup Juvenile Grade two runner up finish. Already proven class wise and with plenty of money in his pocketbook. Soldat is well positioned on the Derby trail with his next race most likely the Fountain of Youth.
The general perception is that Soldat took advantage of his "slop" breeding and relished the off-goint last week on his way to a 102 Beyer speed figure.
Meanwhile Kathmanblu started her career last June in a 4.5 furlong race at Churchill Downs finishing 8th place. Moved to the turf and a drop in class she responded with a win at a mile at Ellis Park on July 17th. Kathmanblu first showed her brilliance at Keeneland in October winning the Jessamine Stakes on the turf by four widening lengths. Then entered for the first time back on dirt after four straight turf races, Kathmanblu pulled away with authority by eight lengths in the Golden Rod Stakes at Churchill.
This past Saturday, Kathmanblu was back on the turf and made a strong sustained run and put away the solid filly Excited before pulling away to a 1.5 length victory. After the race many handicappers claimed she was one of the top five oaks prospects.
To recap Soldat wins on the Dirt and most fans have labeled him a turfer. Kathmanblu wins on the turf and she is a "dirt" horse and one of the three Oaks favorites?
Welcome to Derby Fever 2011, perception sometimes trumps performance on the Triple Crown Trail!
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Off the Couch, First Derby works of 2011
Well it's time for Kentucky Derby contenders to "get off the couch" and onto the track. With many of the top contenders choosing 2-start campaigns in 2011. The workout watch is underway.
Let's recap the first published works of the last 4-years for the recent 2-Derby Prep winners:
A quartet of winners and each with unique workout patterns before wearing roses in May. Street Sense and Super Saver both used the Tampa Bay Derby as their first prep of their Sophomore campaigns, so with Uncle Mo yet to show up on the work tab for 2011, he still has another 10 days or so before possibly having his first workout. Although Super Saver for Todd Pletcher last year did not work until February 14th.
Monday saw the the first recorded workout of the year for To Honor and Serve, a light three furlong workout in :39 and 4/5 at Payson.
Monday also saw the 3rd workout of 2011 for Todd Pletcher trained Brethren. Brethren with zero stakes starts as a sophomore and only two starts overall, seems to be further along than Super Saver was last year, already hitting 5 furlongs in Mondays work.
Boys at Tosconova is being trained with a complete 360 from Big Brown. Richard Dutrow, didn't take "The Boys" out of training and opted to work him in December and into the new year. It will be interesting to see if Boys at Tosconova can make it through the Triple Crown Series essentially never being taken out of training from his juvenile season.
Let's recap the first published works of the last 4-years for the recent 2-Derby Prep winners:
- In 2007 Street Sense recorded his first published work on January 29th. 4F in :53 seconds. With 5 starts as a Juvenile, Street Sense had a solid base.
- In 2008 Big Brown worked 4F in :48 flat on February 24th. With only 2 recorded workouts. 2/24 and 3/1 before winning his March 5th prep by 12 lengths. Then 2 more workouts and running 9 furlongs in the Florida Derby. This horse obviously had major issues, but still the raw talent, combined with a little Dutrow/Rodriguez "elixir".
- 2009 Mine That Bird: 3 furlongs on January 6th at Sunland in 39 1/5. The Bird fired off 6 workouts before his first race on February 28th.
- 2010: Super Saver: 5 Furlong in 1:01 2/5 on February 14th. Again Super Saver had a strong foundation with 4 starts as a juvenile and 3 route races.
A quartet of winners and each with unique workout patterns before wearing roses in May. Street Sense and Super Saver both used the Tampa Bay Derby as their first prep of their Sophomore campaigns, so with Uncle Mo yet to show up on the work tab for 2011, he still has another 10 days or so before possibly having his first workout. Although Super Saver for Todd Pletcher last year did not work until February 14th.
Monday saw the the first recorded workout of the year for To Honor and Serve, a light three furlong workout in :39 and 4/5 at Payson.
Monday also saw the 3rd workout of 2011 for Todd Pletcher trained Brethren. Brethren with zero stakes starts as a sophomore and only two starts overall, seems to be further along than Super Saver was last year, already hitting 5 furlongs in Mondays work.
Boys at Tosconova is being trained with a complete 360 from Big Brown. Richard Dutrow, didn't take "The Boys" out of training and opted to work him in December and into the new year. It will be interesting to see if Boys at Tosconova can make it through the Triple Crown Series essentially never being taken out of training from his juvenile season.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Graded Derby Dollars 2011
The Sham stakes this Saturday kicks off the 2011 Graded Stakes schedule on the Derby Trail. Between January 15th and through the Grade 3 Derby Trail on April 30th, 30 graded stakes will be run.
Distances will range from the 7 furlong Swale Stakes to the major preps that are run at 9 furlongs. Three Graded Races will be on Polytrack: The Grade III Spiral Stakes Stakes at Turfway Park, the Grade II Lexington Stakes at Keeneland and the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. The El Camino Real Derby at GG will be on the surface known as Tapeta!
With the Lexington Stakes being run on April 23rd, the Jerome Stakes on April 24th and the Derby Trial Stakes on April 30th that leaves 27 viable preps to earn the needed Graded Stakes dollars and obtain a golden ticket and be in the Derby Starting gate on May 7th.
Grade 1
For many years the Big 5 final preps included: The Wood Memorial, the Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby, the Arkansas Derby and the Bluegrass Stakes. How much longer can the Bluegrass Stakes continue to have any relevance when a lot of major trainers are only utilizing the Bluegrass as a last resort, and other trainers like Nick Zito are crossing the race off the list as a possible prep for the Derby. The Bluegrass has lost ground in recent years with the polytrack and modern training methods that don't like the Bluegrass dates of 3 weeks before the Derby. Many trainers prefer 5 to six weeks rest before Kentucky.
This year the Louisiana Derby is 9 furlongs and a purse of 1 million will make it a major target for many derby hopefuls from all locations. One of the drawbacks is that a poor showing, does not allow for a Florida Derby run on April 3rd or any of the big three preps on April 9th. Basically the top two from the Louisiana Derby get a ticket to Kentucky but a long layoff afterwords. The LeComte and The Risen Star are positioned optimally for the local horses to prep for the Louisiana Derby. In reality the Louisiana Derby favors horses who have some juvenile Derby earnings, who can run one prep before the Louisiana Derby, secure a Derby field spot and then have six weeks to tighten the screws.
Horses who fit that profile in 2011 include Gourmet Dinner, Santiva, Major Gain and Astrology.
Florida Derby
The Florida Derby has been a yo-yo in recent years. Moving the race anywhere from five to seven weeks before the Kentucky Derby. This year they may have found the right bowl of porridge placing the race on April 3rd, Five weeks before the big dance in Kentucky. If Everything goes well for To Honor and Serve in the Fountain of Youth, look for him to stay in the Sunshine Stake right through the Florida Derby.
Organized Chaos:
Looking at the list of Graded races up to the Kentucky Derby. There is no doubt that by the time the field is set for the Derby the top 10 contenders are in the gate. There may be a little haggling each year on the final few entries. But there is no evidence that the "best" horse has not had a chance to run.
Even with this being said, the Derby prep schedule has no sense of timing or rhythm. The Sunland Derby has one of the biggest purses and is run in March. The Blue Grass is run on Poly and only three weeks before the Derby.
Individually each track sets up a logical progression of races, Fairgrounds cards the LeComte, stretches out to the Risen Star at 8.5 furlongs and then the Louisiana Derby at 9 furlongs. Gulfstream has the Fountain of Youth as the logical prep for the Derby. Many of these traditional preps were best served when horses did not ship as much and the race for the Triple Crown was followed locally at the track. In recent years with the "power" stables and larger purses, it's not uncommon for horses to train at one track and ship to another.
Secondly, rising purses at Racino's and tracks such as Tampa Bay dramatically improving the quality of purses and giving a second option for horses to train in Florida during the winter.
With the increase of stakes races, the quality of the prep races has been reduced in recent years. This has led wide spread shipping in search of Graded Stakes money. The end result has been less natural rivalries developed and many horses who have won the Battle - qualified to the Derby, but lost the war - win the roses.
Rivalries:
Alydar and Affirmed met multiple times in the 70's before drawing the line in the sand in Kentucky. In recent years. The prep rivalries have not built up, which has resulted in less overall sportsmanship. Why face a horse in a prep race if you don't have to?
The last great rivalry may have been Silver Charm and Free house, who faced each other five straight races with Free House claiming the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby's and Silver Charm winning the San Vicente, Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Remember this about Rivalry's. It's only a Rivalry if both sides have won at least once. The last true rivalry occurred in 2007 when Great Hunter and Street Sense faced each other three times before Churchill Downs. Great Hunter winning the Breeder's Futurity and Street Sense winning the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. One tough Dominican won the BlueGrass Stakes with Street Sense 2nd and Great Hunter 5th by only one length. The 2007 class also featured Nobiz Like Shobiz "hooking up" four times before the Derby with Scat Daddy. Nobiz winning The Holy Bull and Scat Daddy claiming the Champagne and Fountain of Youth.
In recent years. Horses are lightly raced as 2 year-olds, only run twice as 3 year-olds and many trainers avoid the matchups. Richard Dutrow is already on record as saying he will not face Uncle Mo until Kentucky. To Honor and Serve has hinted they do not want to face Uncle Mo until Kentucky.
The lack of rivalries does probably help the betting on the race. Which is why in recent year's we have seen (2) 50-1 winners and 8-1 last year with Super Saver.
The Sham Stakes has drawn a competitive field. A top two finish by Clubhouse Ride should bolster his earnings and pretty much put him in the starting gate.
Distances will range from the 7 furlong Swale Stakes to the major preps that are run at 9 furlongs. Three Graded Races will be on Polytrack: The Grade III Spiral Stakes Stakes at Turfway Park, the Grade II Lexington Stakes at Keeneland and the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. The El Camino Real Derby at GG will be on the surface known as Tapeta!
With the Lexington Stakes being run on April 23rd, the Jerome Stakes on April 24th and the Derby Trial Stakes on April 30th that leaves 27 viable preps to earn the needed Graded Stakes dollars and obtain a golden ticket and be in the Derby Starting gate on May 7th.
Grade 1
For many years the Big 5 final preps included: The Wood Memorial, the Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby, the Arkansas Derby and the Bluegrass Stakes. How much longer can the Bluegrass Stakes continue to have any relevance when a lot of major trainers are only utilizing the Bluegrass as a last resort, and other trainers like Nick Zito are crossing the race off the list as a possible prep for the Derby. The Bluegrass has lost ground in recent years with the polytrack and modern training methods that don't like the Bluegrass dates of 3 weeks before the Derby. Many trainers prefer 5 to six weeks rest before Kentucky.
This year the Louisiana Derby is 9 furlongs and a purse of 1 million will make it a major target for many derby hopefuls from all locations. One of the drawbacks is that a poor showing, does not allow for a Florida Derby run on April 3rd or any of the big three preps on April 9th. Basically the top two from the Louisiana Derby get a ticket to Kentucky but a long layoff afterwords. The LeComte and The Risen Star are positioned optimally for the local horses to prep for the Louisiana Derby. In reality the Louisiana Derby favors horses who have some juvenile Derby earnings, who can run one prep before the Louisiana Derby, secure a Derby field spot and then have six weeks to tighten the screws.
Horses who fit that profile in 2011 include Gourmet Dinner, Santiva, Major Gain and Astrology.
Florida Derby
The Florida Derby has been a yo-yo in recent years. Moving the race anywhere from five to seven weeks before the Kentucky Derby. This year they may have found the right bowl of porridge placing the race on April 3rd, Five weeks before the big dance in Kentucky. If Everything goes well for To Honor and Serve in the Fountain of Youth, look for him to stay in the Sunshine Stake right through the Florida Derby.
Organized Chaos:
Looking at the list of Graded races up to the Kentucky Derby. There is no doubt that by the time the field is set for the Derby the top 10 contenders are in the gate. There may be a little haggling each year on the final few entries. But there is no evidence that the "best" horse has not had a chance to run.
Even with this being said, the Derby prep schedule has no sense of timing or rhythm. The Sunland Derby has one of the biggest purses and is run in March. The Blue Grass is run on Poly and only three weeks before the Derby.
Individually each track sets up a logical progression of races, Fairgrounds cards the LeComte, stretches out to the Risen Star at 8.5 furlongs and then the Louisiana Derby at 9 furlongs. Gulfstream has the Fountain of Youth as the logical prep for the Derby. Many of these traditional preps were best served when horses did not ship as much and the race for the Triple Crown was followed locally at the track. In recent years with the "power" stables and larger purses, it's not uncommon for horses to train at one track and ship to another.
Secondly, rising purses at Racino's and tracks such as Tampa Bay dramatically improving the quality of purses and giving a second option for horses to train in Florida during the winter.
With the increase of stakes races, the quality of the prep races has been reduced in recent years. This has led wide spread shipping in search of Graded Stakes money. The end result has been less natural rivalries developed and many horses who have won the Battle - qualified to the Derby, but lost the war - win the roses.
Rivalries:
Alydar and Affirmed met multiple times in the 70's before drawing the line in the sand in Kentucky. In recent years. The prep rivalries have not built up, which has resulted in less overall sportsmanship. Why face a horse in a prep race if you don't have to?
The last great rivalry may have been Silver Charm and Free house, who faced each other five straight races with Free House claiming the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby's and Silver Charm winning the San Vicente, Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Remember this about Rivalry's. It's only a Rivalry if both sides have won at least once. The last true rivalry occurred in 2007 when Great Hunter and Street Sense faced each other three times before Churchill Downs. Great Hunter winning the Breeder's Futurity and Street Sense winning the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. One tough Dominican won the BlueGrass Stakes with Street Sense 2nd and Great Hunter 5th by only one length. The 2007 class also featured Nobiz Like Shobiz "hooking up" four times before the Derby with Scat Daddy. Nobiz winning The Holy Bull and Scat Daddy claiming the Champagne and Fountain of Youth.
In recent years. Horses are lightly raced as 2 year-olds, only run twice as 3 year-olds and many trainers avoid the matchups. Richard Dutrow is already on record as saying he will not face Uncle Mo until Kentucky. To Honor and Serve has hinted they do not want to face Uncle Mo until Kentucky.
The lack of rivalries does probably help the betting on the race. Which is why in recent year's we have seen (2) 50-1 winners and 8-1 last year with Super Saver.
The Sham Stakes has drawn a competitive field. A top two finish by Clubhouse Ride should bolster his earnings and pretty much put him in the starting gate.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
2010 Juvenile Eclipse Awards Finalists
This past week DRF released the finals for the 2010 Eclipse Awards that will be announced in a few weeks. The 2010 finalists are Uncle Mo, Boys at Tosconova and To Honor and Serve. How do this year's finalists compare with previous winners?
Uncle Mo is 3/5 to come away with the Divisional Championship, so lets compare him to recent winners.
BC Juvenile History:
Winning the Breeder's Cup Juvenile has become a strong predictor of winning the Eclipse Award. Overall 11 of the last 13 Breeder's Cup Juvenile winners have later been voted the the Juvenile Champion. In 2004 Wilko upset the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, allowing Declan's Moon to run away with the year-end honors. In 2009 Lookin at Lucky lost by a head in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile to Vale of York, but Lucky's overall record allowed him to earn divisional honors.
The Breeder's Cup Juvenile has become the De Facto visional Championship. Since 1984 19 of the 26 winners of the BC Juvenile have won the Eclipse Award. Uncle Mo more than likely will make it 20 of 27 later this month.
Other Juvenile Debates:
1987: Success Express wins the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, but Forty Niner wins the Eclipse
1988: Is It True defeats Easy Goer in the Mud at Churchill but Easy Goer claims the Eclipse Award
1993: Brocco wins the Breeder's Cup with Dehere winning the Eclipse
1995: Unbridled's Song win the BC Juvenile with Maria's Mon winning the Eclipse
The 1995 Eclipse Championship was very interesting. Maria's Mon finished his campaign with 4 wins in 5 starts defeating the Champagne Stakes by 4 lengths, but did not run in the BC Juvenile. Unbridled's Song finished 4th in the Champagne and finished with just three starts as a Juvenile winning a maiden race at Saratoga by 8 lengths, losing the Champagne after running fractions of 22 3/5 for the quarter, 45 and 1/5 for the half mile and 6 furlongs in 1:10 and 2/5's. Unbridled's Song was truly a running fool, recording 5 speed figures over 100 before running in the Kentucky Derby. His Champagne pace figures were well over 100 and he finished with a raw "Beyer" speed figure of 96.
Fast forward to 2010 and Uncle Mo, wins his Maiden race at Saratoga by 14 lengths, wins the Champagne and then closes out the year with a 108 speed figure winning the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Through three races, Mo has a very similar running profile to Unbridled's Song.
Comparing Uncle Mo to recent Eclipse Award winners:
2009 Lookin At Lucky: Five for six as a Juvenile. Three Grade 1 wins. Don't forget "Lucky" came back to win the Cash Call Futurity after losing the Breeder's Cup Juvenile.
2008 Midshipman: Three for four as a Juvenile. Two Grade 1's.
2007 War Pass: Three for four, Champagne/BC Juvenile Double
2006: Street Sense: Only two for five as a Juvenile, Maiden Race at Arlington Park and the 10 length Breeder's Cup Juvenile Romp.
2005: Stevie Wonderboy. Five Starts. Del Mar Futurity and BC Juvenile Stakes wins
With just three starts, Uncle Mo will become the most lightly raced Eclipse Award winner since Action This Day in 2003.
Future Predictor?
Street Sense broke the dreaded Juvenile Jinx in 2006 becoming the first BC Juvenile Champion to win the Kentucky Derby. The bigger picture shows that this has become an Eclipse Award Jinx. Street Sense was also the first Eclipse Award Juvenile winner to win the Kentucky Derby since Spectacular Bid in 1978!
The six non Breeder's Cup Juvenile winners also were Roses the following spring with Easy Goer's 2nd place finish in 1988 the closest call. Lookin at Lucky should become the first Eclipse Award Winner as a Juvenile to win three year old Champion honors since Spectacular Bid captured the Juvenile in 1978 and the Three Year-Old Championship in 1979.
Comma to The Top!
Lost in Juvenile top three finalists and not event listed is for the Juvenile finalists is Comma to the Top. In this day and time, this is completely unacceptable. Closing out the year with five straight wins, including a 8 length win in the Real Quiet Stakes and a dominating win in the Hollywood Futurity. With modern day simulcasting, instant results and online communication, how does Comma to the Top not make the Finalists? Let alone the top three? Boys at Tosconova has a 12 length maiden win at five furlongs as his Resume. Comma to the Top has Five wins. Boys at Tosconova defeated a four horse field in the hopeful and finished a non competing second verus Uncle Mo in the BC Juvenile. Comma to the Top has wins on multiple surfaces, dominating wins and the Hollywood Futurity has historically been a strong race of two year old form. A case could even be made that JP's Gust with two Graded Stakes wins and 2 Grade One Stakes placings very well could have been a third finalist. Flat out the Voter's got this one wrong.
To Honor and Serve showed both brilliance and class as a Juvenile. Winning his maiden race by 8 lengths and then coming back and winning two grade 2 races. His Nashua win was dominating and his Remsen win efficient, although both races only had 5 horse fields.
In case you missed it. Jeremy's Plonk's Countdown to the Crown returned last friday. Sometime's enlightening, always entertaining, and chock full of Derby Debate.
Uncle Mo is 3/5 to come away with the Divisional Championship, so lets compare him to recent winners.
BC Juvenile History:
Winning the Breeder's Cup Juvenile has become a strong predictor of winning the Eclipse Award. Overall 11 of the last 13 Breeder's Cup Juvenile winners have later been voted the the Juvenile Champion. In 2004 Wilko upset the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, allowing Declan's Moon to run away with the year-end honors. In 2009 Lookin at Lucky lost by a head in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile to Vale of York, but Lucky's overall record allowed him to earn divisional honors.
The Breeder's Cup Juvenile has become the De Facto visional Championship. Since 1984 19 of the 26 winners of the BC Juvenile have won the Eclipse Award. Uncle Mo more than likely will make it 20 of 27 later this month.
Other Juvenile Debates:
1987: Success Express wins the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, but Forty Niner wins the Eclipse
1988: Is It True defeats Easy Goer in the Mud at Churchill but Easy Goer claims the Eclipse Award
1993: Brocco wins the Breeder's Cup with Dehere winning the Eclipse
1995: Unbridled's Song win the BC Juvenile with Maria's Mon winning the Eclipse
The 1995 Eclipse Championship was very interesting. Maria's Mon finished his campaign with 4 wins in 5 starts defeating the Champagne Stakes by 4 lengths, but did not run in the BC Juvenile. Unbridled's Song finished 4th in the Champagne and finished with just three starts as a Juvenile winning a maiden race at Saratoga by 8 lengths, losing the Champagne after running fractions of 22 3/5 for the quarter, 45 and 1/5 for the half mile and 6 furlongs in 1:10 and 2/5's. Unbridled's Song was truly a running fool, recording 5 speed figures over 100 before running in the Kentucky Derby. His Champagne pace figures were well over 100 and he finished with a raw "Beyer" speed figure of 96.
Fast forward to 2010 and Uncle Mo, wins his Maiden race at Saratoga by 14 lengths, wins the Champagne and then closes out the year with a 108 speed figure winning the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Through three races, Mo has a very similar running profile to Unbridled's Song.
Comparing Uncle Mo to recent Eclipse Award winners:
2009 Lookin At Lucky: Five for six as a Juvenile. Three Grade 1 wins. Don't forget "Lucky" came back to win the Cash Call Futurity after losing the Breeder's Cup Juvenile.
2008 Midshipman: Three for four as a Juvenile. Two Grade 1's.
2007 War Pass: Three for four, Champagne/BC Juvenile Double
2006: Street Sense: Only two for five as a Juvenile, Maiden Race at Arlington Park and the 10 length Breeder's Cup Juvenile Romp.
2005: Stevie Wonderboy. Five Starts. Del Mar Futurity and BC Juvenile Stakes wins
With just three starts, Uncle Mo will become the most lightly raced Eclipse Award winner since Action This Day in 2003.
Future Predictor?
Street Sense broke the dreaded Juvenile Jinx in 2006 becoming the first BC Juvenile Champion to win the Kentucky Derby. The bigger picture shows that this has become an Eclipse Award Jinx. Street Sense was also the first Eclipse Award Juvenile winner to win the Kentucky Derby since Spectacular Bid in 1978!
The six non Breeder's Cup Juvenile winners also were Roses the following spring with Easy Goer's 2nd place finish in 1988 the closest call. Lookin at Lucky should become the first Eclipse Award Winner as a Juvenile to win three year old Champion honors since Spectacular Bid captured the Juvenile in 1978 and the Three Year-Old Championship in 1979.
Comma to The Top!
Lost in Juvenile top three finalists and not event listed is for the Juvenile finalists is Comma to the Top. In this day and time, this is completely unacceptable. Closing out the year with five straight wins, including a 8 length win in the Real Quiet Stakes and a dominating win in the Hollywood Futurity. With modern day simulcasting, instant results and online communication, how does Comma to the Top not make the Finalists? Let alone the top three? Boys at Tosconova has a 12 length maiden win at five furlongs as his Resume. Comma to the Top has Five wins. Boys at Tosconova defeated a four horse field in the hopeful and finished a non competing second verus Uncle Mo in the BC Juvenile. Comma to the Top has wins on multiple surfaces, dominating wins and the Hollywood Futurity has historically been a strong race of two year old form. A case could even be made that JP's Gust with two Graded Stakes wins and 2 Grade One Stakes placings very well could have been a third finalist. Flat out the Voter's got this one wrong.
To Honor and Serve showed both brilliance and class as a Juvenile. Winning his maiden race by 8 lengths and then coming back and winning two grade 2 races. His Nashua win was dominating and his Remsen win efficient, although both races only had 5 horse fields.
In case you missed it. Jeremy's Plonk's Countdown to the Crown returned last friday. Sometime's enlightening, always entertaining, and chock full of Derby Debate.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Derby Watch list January 2011
With more blogs posting weekly top contenders lists, I will post a Horses that I'm watching list. Then come back the first week of February with an updated top 10. In case you missed it, the man who started the Derby Watch: Steve Haskin is up with his first list of the year.
With the modern day road to the Derby, involving less starts it seems superficial to rank Uncle Mo #1 on any list until he has even ran in 2011. Much less do weekly updates with none of the three or four contenders not having raced.
Since the NFL playoffs are starting this week: I will do my rankings by seeding them in brackets by where they are training and where they might run their final prep races.
1st Round Byes: Many of these horses won't race until February
East:
#1 Seed: Uncle Mo: Undefeated, untested, unchallelleged, can't think of any more "u's". Mo made the Breeders Cup Juvenile field say "Uncle". Not much else left to say. His victory at Saratoga on the Traver's undercard stole the show! I have been following then ponies since 1987. His maiden victory is easily one of the top three performances I have seen in a maiden breaker. Sunday Silence is still #1, but it was Sunday's second career start and Uncle Mo did it in his first start. Wood Memorial looking like final Derby Prep. If that's true. It may be hard to to get a full field to test Mo before the Derby.
South:
#1 Seed: To Honor and Serve: Strong juvenile campaign, highlighted by 9 furlong stakes win at Aqueduct. Natural speed and weak fields put him on the lead in his last two starts. Have a gut feeling his final prep may be the Arkansas Derby or Louisiana Derby. Pointing to a February return in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream.
West:
#1 Seed: Comma to the Top: Closed out Juvenile campaign with five straight wins. If horse racing had a national Media Guide, we could look up the last Juvenile to win a Grade 1 and finish the year with 5 Juvenile wins. But it doesn't so before I get riled up and regress further. Comma was very impressive in the Hollywood Futurity. Poly may not have been around that long, but I saw very horses wire the field on the Poly over the last few years and Comma did it twice. First in the Real Quiet and then in the Futurity. Like the fact he is considering three starts before the Derby. Compared to Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve he looks more comfortable on the lead, rather than tracking. Dare I say the best front runner since Lost Code? Hopefully he can collect just as many Derby's. I expect him to stay out West and use the Santa Anita Derby as his final prep.
North:
#1 Seed: Tiz Blessed: Since the final major preps "North" involve either the Hawthorne Derby or the Bluegrass, I will place Tiz Blessed as the #1 seed, since he owns a major win on the Poly at Woodbine. The race was impressive and the breeding says "can do". 1A Would have to be Santiva. He race on the Turf, Poly and Dirt as a Juvenile, closing out his Freshman campaign with a gutty win at Churchill Downs. Looks like the first top matchup of the spring might be Santiva and To Honor and Serve in the Fountain of Youth.
1st Round Byes:
These horses have the earnings to qualify for the Derby, or a top 3 finish in a major Prep puts them right on the Edge:
Boys at Tosconova: Finished 2nd to Uncle Mo in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Of the major contenders, I see this horse having the most trouble at 10 furlongs. Planning a 2-prep campaign to the Derby and with a running style that is similar to the rest of the top contenders something has to give.
Clubhouse Ride: Third place finished in the Delta Jackpot and Hollywood Futurity have him on the fringe of Derby earnings. Two starts to get the rest in 2011 before the Derby.
Gourmet Dinner: 20-1 upset at Delta, hit the Jackpot for the Florida bred, ran evenly out West on the "Artificial" surface, goes back home and already has the earnings. PR wise Gourmet Dinner "wins" Derby is not a headline that Horse Racing needs right now. So he has strong negative vibes in that department.
Jaycito: Flopped at Churchill by taking a Right Turn Clyde to the Clubhouse, but it was cold and maybe he expected their to be "heating coils" at the Breeder's Cup. Has lots of Graded Dollars in the bank, and his owner will send him. Let's see what Bob Baffert does with him this spring. Again only two preps expected.
Astrology: Asmussen trainee, out West, will have multiple options to get to the Derby, has lots of earnings and had a foundation-building juvenile campaign. May not be flashy and have the sexy speed figures. But has a nice pedigree, sound racing bottom, multiple races over the Churchill track and Graded Earnings. Just add a healthy spring and a good post come Derby Day. Might try the Sunland Derby route to Kentucky.
Wild Cards:
This is what Derby Fever is all about. Basically we have 16 prep races to determine the final 10 Derby starting berths. The top 8 horses with Derby earnings are already in the field barring injury.
Brethren: Super Savers 1/2 brother, same mom, different dad. This Dad is the prodigous Distorted Humor. Who has already sired Funny Cide to a Derby win. His Allowance win at Churchill was strong, nice final time and won with a long sustained bid while running wide from the start. Room to improve. Look for at Tampa Bay.
Sheriff Cogburn: Has not run since destroying a field at Prairie Meadows last Summer. Needs to get back in training soon. Nice pedigree, solid Midwest trainer. Owned by Toby Keith. Look for at Oaklawn Park. One to keep an eye on.
Machen: Anyone who saw this Distorted Humor colt last Sunday was left impressed. Trained by the ultra conservative Neil Howard. Low efficient stride, this horse does not use any energy, should be able to run all day with his quick, low stride. Will probably stay in Louisiana.
Tapizar: Nice win at Churchill to close out 2010 in Stars of Tomorrow card. Trained by Steve Asmussen. Training out at Santa Anita.
Premier Pegasus: Nice looking colt showed speed and grit as a Juvenile, has the pedigree to stretch out and trainer has a small stable and is often ignored has a history of having his horses outrun their odds. Targeting the Sham Stakes on January 15th.
The Factor: Bob Baffert trainee, wowed them on opening day at Santa Anita, came back with a 102 speed figure. Two races as a juvenile. Stride not as efficient and low impact as Machen. Don't forget, Baffert likes Sunland as a prep race.
Classic Legacy/Sinai: Two more for Bob Baffert. Classic Legacy made a premature move in a Stakes Races at Woodbine. Then did not like the Bull Ring. Look for him to bounce back in the Sham Stakes. Looks like honest horse who will take some beating and has a strong juvenile foundation that has him fit and ready to cash some Graded Derby earnings in the next few months. Sinai. Leggy colt broke his maiden at first asking. Lack of experience but right trainer and the pedigree to consider.
Wilcox Inn: Raced on turf as a juvenile. May go to the dirt. Strong form. Just a hunch that they might try on dirt this spring.
Rogue Romance: Training at Gulfstream. May ship to run in 2011. Ran third in Breeder's Cup juvenile, so a top three finish puts him in the gate by Graded earnings. Son of Smarty Jones seems to have a following at the mutual windows.
Monzon: Won the Count Fleet stakes this past Saturday. But the way he did it was very impressive. Came from dead last on the Inner Dirt Track. By Thunder Gulch. Has strong Juvenile Form. Class tested next at Tampa Bay in the Sam Davis.
Red Hot Cold Blue: Training in Florida. Ran second to Buffum in Maiden event in New York. Then went to Calder and won for fun at 1/5. Nice trainer, strong foundation, a chip and a chair is all you need sometimes.
So there's a first down and dirty look at the top contenders/pretenders for the 2011 Kentucky Derby. Compared to previous year's. Top contenders look very strong. Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, and Santiva all are above last year's two year olds in terms of foundation for early January.
With the modern day road to the Derby, involving less starts it seems superficial to rank Uncle Mo #1 on any list until he has even ran in 2011. Much less do weekly updates with none of the three or four contenders not having raced.
Since the NFL playoffs are starting this week: I will do my rankings by seeding them in brackets by where they are training and where they might run their final prep races.
1st Round Byes: Many of these horses won't race until February
East:
#1 Seed: Uncle Mo: Undefeated, untested, unchallelleged, can't think of any more "u's". Mo made the Breeders Cup Juvenile field say "Uncle". Not much else left to say. His victory at Saratoga on the Traver's undercard stole the show! I have been following then ponies since 1987. His maiden victory is easily one of the top three performances I have seen in a maiden breaker. Sunday Silence is still #1, but it was Sunday's second career start and Uncle Mo did it in his first start. Wood Memorial looking like final Derby Prep. If that's true. It may be hard to to get a full field to test Mo before the Derby.
South:
#1 Seed: To Honor and Serve: Strong juvenile campaign, highlighted by 9 furlong stakes win at Aqueduct. Natural speed and weak fields put him on the lead in his last two starts. Have a gut feeling his final prep may be the Arkansas Derby or Louisiana Derby. Pointing to a February return in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream.
West:
#1 Seed: Comma to the Top: Closed out Juvenile campaign with five straight wins. If horse racing had a national Media Guide, we could look up the last Juvenile to win a Grade 1 and finish the year with 5 Juvenile wins. But it doesn't so before I get riled up and regress further. Comma was very impressive in the Hollywood Futurity. Poly may not have been around that long, but I saw very horses wire the field on the Poly over the last few years and Comma did it twice. First in the Real Quiet and then in the Futurity. Like the fact he is considering three starts before the Derby. Compared to Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve he looks more comfortable on the lead, rather than tracking. Dare I say the best front runner since Lost Code? Hopefully he can collect just as many Derby's. I expect him to stay out West and use the Santa Anita Derby as his final prep.
North:
#1 Seed: Tiz Blessed: Since the final major preps "North" involve either the Hawthorne Derby or the Bluegrass, I will place Tiz Blessed as the #1 seed, since he owns a major win on the Poly at Woodbine. The race was impressive and the breeding says "can do". 1A Would have to be Santiva. He race on the Turf, Poly and Dirt as a Juvenile, closing out his Freshman campaign with a gutty win at Churchill Downs. Looks like the first top matchup of the spring might be Santiva and To Honor and Serve in the Fountain of Youth.
1st Round Byes:
These horses have the earnings to qualify for the Derby, or a top 3 finish in a major Prep puts them right on the Edge:
Boys at Tosconova: Finished 2nd to Uncle Mo in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Of the major contenders, I see this horse having the most trouble at 10 furlongs. Planning a 2-prep campaign to the Derby and with a running style that is similar to the rest of the top contenders something has to give.
Clubhouse Ride: Third place finished in the Delta Jackpot and Hollywood Futurity have him on the fringe of Derby earnings. Two starts to get the rest in 2011 before the Derby.
Gourmet Dinner: 20-1 upset at Delta, hit the Jackpot for the Florida bred, ran evenly out West on the "Artificial" surface, goes back home and already has the earnings. PR wise Gourmet Dinner "wins" Derby is not a headline that Horse Racing needs right now. So he has strong negative vibes in that department.
Jaycito: Flopped at Churchill by taking a Right Turn Clyde to the Clubhouse, but it was cold and maybe he expected their to be "heating coils" at the Breeder's Cup. Has lots of Graded Dollars in the bank, and his owner will send him. Let's see what Bob Baffert does with him this spring. Again only two preps expected.
Astrology: Asmussen trainee, out West, will have multiple options to get to the Derby, has lots of earnings and had a foundation-building juvenile campaign. May not be flashy and have the sexy speed figures. But has a nice pedigree, sound racing bottom, multiple races over the Churchill track and Graded Earnings. Just add a healthy spring and a good post come Derby Day. Might try the Sunland Derby route to Kentucky.
Wild Cards:
This is what Derby Fever is all about. Basically we have 16 prep races to determine the final 10 Derby starting berths. The top 8 horses with Derby earnings are already in the field barring injury.
Brethren: Super Savers 1/2 brother, same mom, different dad. This Dad is the prodigous Distorted Humor. Who has already sired Funny Cide to a Derby win. His Allowance win at Churchill was strong, nice final time and won with a long sustained bid while running wide from the start. Room to improve. Look for at Tampa Bay.
Sheriff Cogburn: Has not run since destroying a field at Prairie Meadows last Summer. Needs to get back in training soon. Nice pedigree, solid Midwest trainer. Owned by Toby Keith. Look for at Oaklawn Park. One to keep an eye on.
Machen: Anyone who saw this Distorted Humor colt last Sunday was left impressed. Trained by the ultra conservative Neil Howard. Low efficient stride, this horse does not use any energy, should be able to run all day with his quick, low stride. Will probably stay in Louisiana.
Tapizar: Nice win at Churchill to close out 2010 in Stars of Tomorrow card. Trained by Steve Asmussen. Training out at Santa Anita.
Premier Pegasus: Nice looking colt showed speed and grit as a Juvenile, has the pedigree to stretch out and trainer has a small stable and is often ignored has a history of having his horses outrun their odds. Targeting the Sham Stakes on January 15th.
The Factor: Bob Baffert trainee, wowed them on opening day at Santa Anita, came back with a 102 speed figure. Two races as a juvenile. Stride not as efficient and low impact as Machen. Don't forget, Baffert likes Sunland as a prep race.
Classic Legacy/Sinai: Two more for Bob Baffert. Classic Legacy made a premature move in a Stakes Races at Woodbine. Then did not like the Bull Ring. Look for him to bounce back in the Sham Stakes. Looks like honest horse who will take some beating and has a strong juvenile foundation that has him fit and ready to cash some Graded Derby earnings in the next few months. Sinai. Leggy colt broke his maiden at first asking. Lack of experience but right trainer and the pedigree to consider.
Wilcox Inn: Raced on turf as a juvenile. May go to the dirt. Strong form. Just a hunch that they might try on dirt this spring.
Rogue Romance: Training at Gulfstream. May ship to run in 2011. Ran third in Breeder's Cup juvenile, so a top three finish puts him in the gate by Graded earnings. Son of Smarty Jones seems to have a following at the mutual windows.
Monzon: Won the Count Fleet stakes this past Saturday. But the way he did it was very impressive. Came from dead last on the Inner Dirt Track. By Thunder Gulch. Has strong Juvenile Form. Class tested next at Tampa Bay in the Sam Davis.
Red Hot Cold Blue: Training in Florida. Ran second to Buffum in Maiden event in New York. Then went to Calder and won for fun at 1/5. Nice trainer, strong foundation, a chip and a chair is all you need sometimes.
So there's a first down and dirty look at the top contenders/pretenders for the 2011 Kentucky Derby. Compared to previous year's. Top contenders look very strong. Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, and Santiva all are above last year's two year olds in terms of foundation for early January.
Monday, January 3, 2011
Two Starts vs Three Starts before the Derby in 2011?
If 50 has become the new 40, then 2 has become the new 3 on the Kentucky Derby Trail. For many years three or four starts was preferred for horses "prepping" for the Derby, then three starts became the norm. Since 2007, Street Sense, Big Brown, Mine That Bird and Super Saver have all taken the roses with just two starts as a sophomore before winning in Churchill.
From 2000 to 2006 the Kentucky Derby winners recorded 3 or 4 starts as a three year-old before winning the Derby:
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus - 4 previous 3 year old starts.
2001 - Monarchos - 4
2002 - War Emblem - 4
2003 - Funny Cide - 3
2004 - Smarty Jones - 4
2005 - Giacomo - 3
2006 - Barbaro - 3
With the last four winners all having 2 starts as a three year-old, we can see wear the trend line is going. Overall it may not be good for Horse Racing.
For 2011 top contenders Uncle Mo, and To Honor and Serve have already laid out plans for a 2-start campaign before Louisville. In recent years trainers have focused on getting the necessarily earnings and getting to the Derby, one wonders if they are winning the war, but losing the race. Mine That Bird and Super Saver never visited the winner's circle again. Big Brown only raced one time after the Belmont and Street Sense lost the Preakness and did not event run in the Belmont. Basically the trainers are putting all their eggs in the proverbial "Derby Basket".
If horses only have two starts before the Derby, and then are being asked to run 3 starts in 5 weeks at increasing distances. The most recent Triple Crown near misses involved "battle-tested" horses such as Charismatic, Real Quite, Silver Charm recorded 13, 12 and 9 career starts heading into their Triple Crown seasons.
Looking back to 1983. Sunny's Halo only had 2 preps as a three year-old before winning the Derby in his third Start. But Sunny's Halo had 11 Juvenile Starts in which to build a sound foundation. His wins in the spring of '83 before the Derby included a 4 length win in a 14 horse Arkansas Derby Field.
That's why it's refreshing to hear that Peter Miller is thinking about 3 starts for Comma to Top. With enough earnings and closing out the year with 5 straight wins, Comma to the top, could be put on the shelf and given some time off. But with his running style and how strong he has been finishing his recent races, he may be "old school" and need the racing.
Given their choice most trainers would opt for 2 starts before the Derby, but because of the earnings requirements, any horses that gets into January without any earnings, basically has to win one of the prep races.
This year Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, Santiva, Boys At Tosconova, Comma to the Top, Gourmet Dinner all are well ahead on earnings to get in the Derby gate. Of those 6 horses, only Comma to the Top and Gourmet Dinner have expressed any interest in running three prep races.
Will we start seeing horses attempt the Derby with only 1 Prep Start? From looking at the last 40 year's of Data it doesn't look pretty. 10 horses have ran in the Derby with just one Sophomore prep. The best finish was Eltish and China Vist who both finished 6th. The rest of the results are even uglier! Dr. Devious 7th, Arazi 8th, Express Tour 8th, Castle Gandolfo 12th, Johannesburg 8th. None of the 10 horses who ran in the Derby with only 1 start as a 3 year-old could manage even a 5th place finish. So for now, it looks like the baseline has been set. Get the 2 year old earnings, then start scheduling a 2 race campaign for Louisville.
From 2000 to 2006 the Kentucky Derby winners recorded 3 or 4 starts as a three year-old before winning the Derby:
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus - 4 previous 3 year old starts.
2001 - Monarchos - 4
2002 - War Emblem - 4
2003 - Funny Cide - 3
2004 - Smarty Jones - 4
2005 - Giacomo - 3
2006 - Barbaro - 3
With the last four winners all having 2 starts as a three year-old, we can see wear the trend line is going. Overall it may not be good for Horse Racing.
For 2011 top contenders Uncle Mo, and To Honor and Serve have already laid out plans for a 2-start campaign before Louisville. In recent years trainers have focused on getting the necessarily earnings and getting to the Derby, one wonders if they are winning the war, but losing the race. Mine That Bird and Super Saver never visited the winner's circle again. Big Brown only raced one time after the Belmont and Street Sense lost the Preakness and did not event run in the Belmont. Basically the trainers are putting all their eggs in the proverbial "Derby Basket".
If horses only have two starts before the Derby, and then are being asked to run 3 starts in 5 weeks at increasing distances. The most recent Triple Crown near misses involved "battle-tested" horses such as Charismatic, Real Quite, Silver Charm recorded 13, 12 and 9 career starts heading into their Triple Crown seasons.
Looking back to 1983. Sunny's Halo only had 2 preps as a three year-old before winning the Derby in his third Start. But Sunny's Halo had 11 Juvenile Starts in which to build a sound foundation. His wins in the spring of '83 before the Derby included a 4 length win in a 14 horse Arkansas Derby Field.
That's why it's refreshing to hear that Peter Miller is thinking about 3 starts for Comma to Top. With enough earnings and closing out the year with 5 straight wins, Comma to the top, could be put on the shelf and given some time off. But with his running style and how strong he has been finishing his recent races, he may be "old school" and need the racing.
Given their choice most trainers would opt for 2 starts before the Derby, but because of the earnings requirements, any horses that gets into January without any earnings, basically has to win one of the prep races.
This year Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, Santiva, Boys At Tosconova, Comma to the Top, Gourmet Dinner all are well ahead on earnings to get in the Derby gate. Of those 6 horses, only Comma to the Top and Gourmet Dinner have expressed any interest in running three prep races.
Will we start seeing horses attempt the Derby with only 1 Prep Start? From looking at the last 40 year's of Data it doesn't look pretty. 10 horses have ran in the Derby with just one Sophomore prep. The best finish was Eltish and China Vist who both finished 6th. The rest of the results are even uglier! Dr. Devious 7th, Arazi 8th, Express Tour 8th, Castle Gandolfo 12th, Johannesburg 8th. None of the 10 horses who ran in the Derby with only 1 start as a 3 year-old could manage even a 5th place finish. So for now, it looks like the baseline has been set. Get the 2 year old earnings, then start scheduling a 2 race campaign for Louisville.
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