Today is the final day of round one of the Derby Futures. Let's take a look at this fun yet for me futile attempt at the crystal ball.
Anthony's Cross: Bargain:
Has a strong chance to make the gate. Solid pedigree. Experienced connections with the trainer who navigated Colonel John to the Derby a few years back. Currently over 50-1 and in training.
Astrology: Bargain:
Pedigree alone A. P. Indy by Quiet American plus 100K in Graded Earnings. Steve Asmussen adds to the appeal. Has not raced yet. But has three workouts in 2011. Look for him in the San Rafael.
Brethren: Bust:
Has a nice running style and some earnings. But is currently 16-1, even if he wins his next start he will be close to 10-1 come Derby Day.
Clubhouse Ride: Bust:
Has the right running style, has the experience, but is "resting" to the Santa Anita Derby, may be over the top.
Comma to the Top: Bust:
Nice horse, but he is not going to wire this Derby field, bottom line the other horses are catching up to him.
Decisive Moment: Bust:
Nice horse and his race in the Risen Star was strong considering the track was tiring and slightly favored closers. Would like to own this horse, if spotted in the right races all summer will make a lot of money.
Dialed in: Bust:
Currently 8-1. Nice connections and may very well win the Florida Derby, but if Uncle Mo wins his next two starts he will still be 8-1 on Derby Day and could be undefeated that is how much people like Uncle Mo. Bet him only if you think "mo" will stumble and not make the gate.
Gourmet Dinner: Bust:
The other horses are slowly catching up to him. Gutty, Gritty, but a "Derby Winner" is not going to be named "Gourmet Dinner"
Indian Winter: Bargain:
Good connections, good breeding, worth taking a flyer on.
JP's Gusto: Bargain:
Runs Monday, a win there and definitely could be a top 15 contender. Already has the earnings and has been in training for awhile. Doesn't look like 10 furlongs is up his alley, but has the class and earnings.
Jaycito: Bargain:
Nice Breeding, Baffert Trains, currently over 25/1. Will be much shorter on May 7th, should run all day long, but a bad race takes him out of contention.
Machen: Bargain:
Troubled 4th yesterday. Was his third race in 5 weeks, a solid month of training and switch to a powerful jockey and he can win the Louisiana Derby or the Bluegrass Stakes. Still a nice horse to watch.
Mucho Macho Man: Bargain:
Still 40/1 after yesterdays win. June foal, can improve and will have three preps going into the derby, has the earnings. Not getting respect.
Rogue Romance: Bust:
Nice Breeding, solid connections, lots of graded earnings. But may not be fast enough
Santiva: Bargain:
Currently 50/1. Has the earnings. Solid Breeding, solid return effort over tiring Fairgounds surface in the Risen Star. Still has room to improve and will be under 20/1 come Derby Day.
Silver Medallion: Bust:
Won Slowly run Golden Gate Race, no dirt experience.
Soldat: Bargain:
Buying on the upside before he runs in FOY next week at Gulfstream, but a lackluster race could move him down.
Stay Thirsty: Bust
Runs in the Gotham, strong breeding, but his races leave a lot to be desired.
Sweet Ducky: Bust
Training up to the Florda Derby, will probably have the earnings to get in the field, but has to improve dramatically.
The Factor: Bust
It's a complete guess to how far he can carry his speed. No experience and not exactly distance breeding. Has slop breeding.
Tiz Blessed: Bargain
A large price missed 20 days of training but worked out again on Friday. Not pointing to Fountain of Youth, look for prep and then Bluegrass stakes, has no earnings but a nice pedigree. This one is a longshot, but currently 80/1.
To Honor and Serve: Bust:Bargain:
Even if he wins the FOY and Florida Derby's if Uncle Mo is undefeated he will be the 2nd favorite on Derby Day that means at least 5/1 to play now at 9/1 is not a good bet. Nice horse. Has the earnings and strong breeding. The Bargain is in the exactas a anything besides Uncle Mo and Dialed In is playing large.
Uncle Mo: Bust:
Has the earnings, the Champ until knocked off, but no races this year and you will probably get 3/1 in the 2nd pool. No reason to bet today.
Field: Bust:
A field horse has a strong chance of winning but 7/5 is no very enticing. Runflatout, Cal Nation, Nacho Business, Elite Alex, Cool Blue Red Hot, Premier Pegasus, Sway Away, and about six others could emerge.
So out of 24 horses we have 8 bargains:
Anthony's Cross
Astrology
Indian Winter
J.P's Gusto
Machen
Mucho Macho Man
Santiva
Soldat
Out of those eight horses. Soldat is a complete mystery until next week. JP's Gusto and Indian Winter look short on pedigree. The best value is Anthony's Cross, Machen and Santiva. To Honor and Serve good value over those eight horses in the Exacta Pool.
Also Churchill Downs needs to really focus on getting more horses in the betting slots. The people who keep on saying that all 366 nominated horses need to be eligible is nonsense. Have those horses nominated haven't broke their maidens, no one is going to bet those horses anyways. It's the next 20 horses that need to get involved. With 40 horses, it would still put focus on horses who can win the Derby, but put more money in the pot.
People would get 10/1 on Uncle Mo, and horses like Dialed In would be 20/1. While Horses like Elite Alex would be 80/1 and Caleb's Posse would be 150/1. Instead you get them with the field.
The exacta matrix would be off the chart. A 40/1 wins and a 150/1 runs second pays $20,000 rather than a Field Horse. By adding 20 more horses Churchill would double the pool and be able to market the bet more. Putting all 366 horses in the betting is pure nonsense.
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