Off the Turf and on the Derby Trail

A tale of two preps last week ignited some friendly online chatter and debate on the the merits of the Derby and Oaks prospects of Soldat and Kathmanblu.

Soldat defeated a small but quality field at Gulfstream and emerged with a 10 length win.  Many handicappers are writing this off as a "slop" induced result.  Meanwhile Kathmanblu went to the turf and made short work of her field and solidified herself as one of the favorites for the Oaks, why the difference?

In recent years many horses have made an impact in the Derby starting their careers on the lawn.  Since 1970, 694 horses have started in the Derby.  Of those 694 horses 35 of them debuted on the turf course before eventually moving to the dirt for their run for the roses.

In recent years the turf to dirt trend has been magnified with more horses making the switch and success has followed.  Sir Tristram began his career on the turf in 1973 and finished 11th in the 1974 Derby.  Following Sir Tristram there was a long drought with no horse attempting that non-traditional career path on the way to Kentucky until 1986 when Bold Arrangement finished 2nd.

Since 2000, 25 of the 35 starters have appeared on the grass in a debut race before eventually moving to the lawn.  That does not include horses who raced on the turf before entering the Derby starting gate but didn't begin their career on the lawn like Soldat.

In the past decade the only year the derby field has not had a derby started who started his career on the lawn was 2003 and 2007.  In 2003 Peace Rules ran a strong race in Louisville with 3 of his five wins entering the Derby recorded on the Turf.  In 2007 Sedgefield and Storm in May both had multiple attempts on the lawn before going "off the turf", Barbaro won the derby in 2006, Big Brown followed up with a victory in 2008 after running one race as a Juvenile on the grass.  Pioneerof the Nile finished 2nd in 2009.

Now let's relate this to Soldat's performance last week at Gulfstream.  Soldat began his career on the dirt with two 5.5 furlong races.  Then moved to the turf and established his class with a G3 win and Breeder's Cup Juvenile Grade two runner up finish.  Already proven class wise and with plenty of money in his pocketbook.  Soldat is well positioned on the Derby trail with his next race most likely the Fountain of Youth.

The general perception is that Soldat took advantage of his "slop" breeding and relished the off-goint last week on his way to a 102 Beyer speed figure.

Meanwhile Kathmanblu started her career last June in a 4.5 furlong race at Churchill Downs finishing 8th place.  Moved to the turf and a drop in class she responded with a win at a mile at Ellis Park on July 17th.  Kathmanblu first showed her brilliance at Keeneland in October winning the Jessamine Stakes on the turf by four widening lengths.  Then entered for the first time back on dirt after four straight turf races, Kathmanblu pulled away with authority by eight lengths in the Golden Rod Stakes at Churchill.

This past Saturday, Kathmanblu was back on the turf and made a strong sustained run and put away the solid filly Excited before pulling away to a 1.5 length victory.  After the race many handicappers claimed she was one of the top five oaks prospects.

To recap Soldat wins on the Dirt and most fans have labeled him a turfer.  Kathmanblu wins on the turf and she is a "dirt" horse and one of the three Oaks favorites?


Welcome to Derby Fever 2011, perception sometimes trumps performance on the Triple Crown Trail!