Graded Derby Dollars 2011

The Sham stakes this Saturday kicks off the 2011 Graded Stakes schedule on the Derby Trail.  Between January 15th and through the Grade 3 Derby Trail on April 30th, 30 graded stakes will be run.

Distances will range from the 7 furlong Swale Stakes to the major preps that are run at 9 furlongs. Three Graded Races will be on Polytrack:  The Grade III Spiral Stakes Stakes at Turfway Park, the Grade II Lexington Stakes at Keeneland and the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.  The El Camino Real Derby at GG will be on the surface known as Tapeta!

With the Lexington Stakes being run on April 23rd, the Jerome Stakes on April 24th and the Derby Trial Stakes on April 30th that leaves 27 viable preps to earn the needed Graded Stakes dollars and obtain a golden ticket and be in the Derby Starting gate on May 7th.

Grade 1
For many years the Big 5 final preps included:  The Wood Memorial, the Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby, the Arkansas Derby and the Bluegrass Stakes.  How much longer can the Bluegrass Stakes continue to have any relevance when a lot of major trainers are only utilizing the Bluegrass as a last resort, and other trainers like Nick Zito are crossing the race off the list as a possible prep for the Derby.  The Bluegrass has  lost ground in recent years with the polytrack and modern training methods that don't like the Bluegrass dates of 3 weeks before the Derby.  Many trainers prefer 5 to six weeks rest before Kentucky.

This year the Louisiana Derby is 9 furlongs and a purse of 1 million will make it a major target for many derby hopefuls from all locations.  One of the drawbacks is that a poor showing, does not allow for a Florida Derby run on April 3rd or any of the big three preps on April 9th.  Basically the top two from the Louisiana Derby get a ticket to Kentucky but a long layoff afterwords.  The LeComte and The Risen Star are positioned optimally for the local horses to prep for the Louisiana Derby.  In reality the Louisiana Derby favors horses who have some juvenile Derby earnings, who can run one prep before the Louisiana Derby, secure a Derby field spot and then have six weeks to tighten the screws.

Horses who fit that profile in 2011 include Gourmet Dinner, Santiva, Major Gain and Astrology.

Florida Derby
The Florida Derby has been a yo-yo in recent years.  Moving the race anywhere from five to seven weeks before the Kentucky Derby.  This year they may have found the right bowl of porridge placing the race on April 3rd, Five weeks before the big dance in Kentucky.  If Everything goes well for To Honor and Serve in the Fountain of Youth, look for him to stay in the Sunshine Stake right through the Florida Derby.

Organized Chaos:

Looking at the list of Graded races up to the Kentucky Derby.  There is no doubt that by the time the field is set for the Derby the top 10 contenders are in the gate.  There may be a little haggling each year on the final few entries.  But there is no evidence that the "best" horse has not had a chance to run.

Even with this being said, the Derby prep schedule has no sense of timing or rhythm.  The Sunland Derby has one of the biggest purses and is run in March.  The Blue Grass is run on Poly and only three weeks before the Derby.

Individually  each track sets up a logical progression of races, Fairgrounds cards the LeComte, stretches out to the Risen Star at 8.5 furlongs and then the Louisiana Derby at 9 furlongs.  Gulfstream has the Fountain of Youth as the logical prep for the Derby.  Many of these traditional preps were best served when horses did not ship as much and the race for the Triple Crown was followed locally at the track.  In recent years with the "power" stables and larger purses, it's not uncommon for horses to train at one track and ship to another.

Secondly, rising purses at Racino's and tracks such as Tampa Bay dramatically improving the quality of purses and giving a second option for horses to train in Florida during the winter.

With the increase of stakes races, the quality of the prep races has been reduced in recent years.  This has led wide spread shipping in search of Graded Stakes money.  The end result has been less natural rivalries developed and many horses who have won the Battle - qualified to the Derby, but lost the war - win the roses.

Rivalries:

Alydar and Affirmed met multiple times in the 70's before drawing the line in the sand in Kentucky.  In recent years.  The prep rivalries have not built up, which has resulted in less overall sportsmanship.  Why face a horse in a prep race if you don't have to?

The last great rivalry may have been Silver Charm and Free house, who faced each other five straight races with Free House claiming the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby's and  Silver Charm winning the San Vicente, Kentucky Derby and Preakness.  Remember this about Rivalry's.  It's only a Rivalry if both sides have won at least once.  The last true rivalry occurred in 2007 when Great Hunter and Street Sense faced each other three times before Churchill Downs.  Great Hunter winning the Breeder's Futurity and Street Sense winning the Breeder's Cup Juvenile.  One tough Dominican won the BlueGrass Stakes with Street Sense 2nd and Great Hunter 5th by only one length.  The 2007 class also featured Nobiz Like Shobiz "hooking up" four times before the Derby with Scat Daddy.  Nobiz winning The Holy Bull and Scat Daddy claiming the Champagne and Fountain of Youth.

In recent years.  Horses are lightly raced as 2 year-olds, only run twice as 3 year-olds and many trainers avoid the matchups.  Richard Dutrow is already on record as saying he will not face Uncle Mo until Kentucky.  To Honor and Serve has hinted they do not want to face Uncle Mo until Kentucky.

The lack of rivalries does probably help the betting on the race.  Which is why in recent year's we have seen (2) 50-1 winners and 8-1 last year with Super Saver.

The Sham Stakes has drawn a competitive field.  A top two finish by Clubhouse Ride should bolster his earnings and pretty much put him in the starting gate.