Today is the final day of round one of the Derby Futures. Let's take a look at this fun yet for me futile attempt at the crystal ball.
Anthony's Cross: Bargain:
Has a strong chance to make the gate. Solid pedigree. Experienced connections with the trainer who navigated Colonel John to the Derby a few years back. Currently over 50-1 and in training.
Astrology: Bargain:
Pedigree alone A. P. Indy by Quiet American plus 100K in Graded Earnings. Steve Asmussen adds to the appeal. Has not raced yet. But has three workouts in 2011. Look for him in the San Rafael.
Brethren: Bust:
Has a nice running style and some earnings. But is currently 16-1, even if he wins his next start he will be close to 10-1 come Derby Day.
Clubhouse Ride: Bust:
Has the right running style, has the experience, but is "resting" to the Santa Anita Derby, may be over the top.
Comma to the Top: Bust:
Nice horse, but he is not going to wire this Derby field, bottom line the other horses are catching up to him.
Decisive Moment: Bust:
Nice horse and his race in the Risen Star was strong considering the track was tiring and slightly favored closers. Would like to own this horse, if spotted in the right races all summer will make a lot of money.
Dialed in: Bust:
Currently 8-1. Nice connections and may very well win the Florida Derby, but if Uncle Mo wins his next two starts he will still be 8-1 on Derby Day and could be undefeated that is how much people like Uncle Mo. Bet him only if you think "mo" will stumble and not make the gate.
Gourmet Dinner: Bust:
The other horses are slowly catching up to him. Gutty, Gritty, but a "Derby Winner" is not going to be named "Gourmet Dinner"
Indian Winter: Bargain:
Good connections, good breeding, worth taking a flyer on.
JP's Gusto: Bargain:
Runs Monday, a win there and definitely could be a top 15 contender. Already has the earnings and has been in training for awhile. Doesn't look like 10 furlongs is up his alley, but has the class and earnings.
Jaycito: Bargain:
Nice Breeding, Baffert Trains, currently over 25/1. Will be much shorter on May 7th, should run all day long, but a bad race takes him out of contention.
Machen: Bargain:
Troubled 4th yesterday. Was his third race in 5 weeks, a solid month of training and switch to a powerful jockey and he can win the Louisiana Derby or the Bluegrass Stakes. Still a nice horse to watch.
Mucho Macho Man: Bargain:
Still 40/1 after yesterdays win. June foal, can improve and will have three preps going into the derby, has the earnings. Not getting respect.
Rogue Romance: Bust:
Nice Breeding, solid connections, lots of graded earnings. But may not be fast enough
Santiva: Bargain:
Currently 50/1. Has the earnings. Solid Breeding, solid return effort over tiring Fairgounds surface in the Risen Star. Still has room to improve and will be under 20/1 come Derby Day.
Silver Medallion: Bust:
Won Slowly run Golden Gate Race, no dirt experience.
Soldat: Bargain:
Buying on the upside before he runs in FOY next week at Gulfstream, but a lackluster race could move him down.
Stay Thirsty: Bust
Runs in the Gotham, strong breeding, but his races leave a lot to be desired.
Sweet Ducky: Bust
Training up to the Florda Derby, will probably have the earnings to get in the field, but has to improve dramatically.
The Factor: Bust
It's a complete guess to how far he can carry his speed. No experience and not exactly distance breeding. Has slop breeding.
Tiz Blessed: Bargain
A large price missed 20 days of training but worked out again on Friday. Not pointing to Fountain of Youth, look for prep and then Bluegrass stakes, has no earnings but a nice pedigree. This one is a longshot, but currently 80/1.
To Honor and Serve: Bust:Bargain:
Even if he wins the FOY and Florida Derby's if Uncle Mo is undefeated he will be the 2nd favorite on Derby Day that means at least 5/1 to play now at 9/1 is not a good bet. Nice horse. Has the earnings and strong breeding. The Bargain is in the exactas a anything besides Uncle Mo and Dialed In is playing large.
Uncle Mo: Bust:
Has the earnings, the Champ until knocked off, but no races this year and you will probably get 3/1 in the 2nd pool. No reason to bet today.
Field: Bust:
A field horse has a strong chance of winning but 7/5 is no very enticing. Runflatout, Cal Nation, Nacho Business, Elite Alex, Cool Blue Red Hot, Premier Pegasus, Sway Away, and about six others could emerge.
So out of 24 horses we have 8 bargains:
Anthony's Cross
Astrology
Indian Winter
J.P's Gusto
Machen
Mucho Macho Man
Santiva
Soldat
Out of those eight horses. Soldat is a complete mystery until next week. JP's Gusto and Indian Winter look short on pedigree. The best value is Anthony's Cross, Machen and Santiva. To Honor and Serve good value over those eight horses in the Exacta Pool.
Also Churchill Downs needs to really focus on getting more horses in the betting slots. The people who keep on saying that all 366 nominated horses need to be eligible is nonsense. Have those horses nominated haven't broke their maidens, no one is going to bet those horses anyways. It's the next 20 horses that need to get involved. With 40 horses, it would still put focus on horses who can win the Derby, but put more money in the pot.
People would get 10/1 on Uncle Mo, and horses like Dialed In would be 20/1. While Horses like Elite Alex would be 80/1 and Caleb's Posse would be 150/1. Instead you get them with the field.
The exacta matrix would be off the chart. A 40/1 wins and a 150/1 runs second pays $20,000 rather than a Field Horse. By adding 20 more horses Churchill would double the pool and be able to market the bet more. Putting all 366 horses in the betting is pure nonsense.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
When is it "too late" to join the Derby trail?
An impressive maiden performance by the Todd Pletcher trained Cal Nation on Saturday drew raves from some bloggers and raised questions from others. Is Cal Nation too late on the scene?
My gut instinct was to refer to the curse of 1882 and Apollo as the last Derby Winner, who didn't race as a Juvenile. But in recent years as horses become lightly raced, it is inevitable, that the winner of the Kentucky Derby in the next few years will not have raced as a Juvenile.
With that in mind I started searching past Derby winners to see exactly when did racing "jump the shark" into the current state of lightly raced activity?
Stop searching, you may not like the answer you are looking for, is a line from the original Planet of the Apes, and in this case, it may be true!
Is it possible the success from the top two horses of the sophomore class of 1989 may have contributed to this mess?
Let's enter the way-back machine with Mr. Peabody and Sherman back to the year 1989. Sunday Silence with just three starts as a Juvenile and only one win and no races debuts as a three year old on March 2, 1989. Winning by 4 lengths in 1:15 and 2/5! The Bald Eagle wheeled him back on March 19th in the San Felipe. Sir Charles then tightened the screws three weeks later winning the Santa Anita Derby by a widening 11 lengths. Three races in six weeks and did not run a route rate until March 19th.
Meanwhile back out East. Easy Goer was emerging from a winter of hibernation. After a 6 race juvenile campaign, Shug McGaughey didn't let Easy Goer out of the barn until March 4th 1989 winning the swale stakes by 8 lengths.
By those standards Cal Nation is a full month ahead of schedule!
Another interesting horse on the Derby trail this year is Machen. Never racing as a juvenile and heading towards the Risen Star Stakes on February 19th. His trainer is Neil Howard. Neil Howard trained Summer Squall to a 2nd place Derby finish in 1990. Summer Squall did not race until March 17th of his 3-year old season. With two races and three works in the last month, Machen is weeks ahead in conditioning that Summer Squall was in 1989. Also note that Summer Squall was unraced from August 26th of his Juvenile season to March 17th.
Hansel the 1991 Preakness winner debuted with a 11 length loss on February 23rd in 1990 in the Fountain of Youth. Hansel responded with a 3rd in the Florida Derby before winning the Jim Beam and then the Lexington Stakes.
Best Pal - 2nd in the 1991 Derby did not race as a sophomore until March 3, 1991!
D Wayne Lukas adds fuel to the fire with Timber Country waiting until March 4 for his debut in 1995. Grindstone came off the shelf in mid February 1996 and won the roses in May.
Uncle Mo is scheduled to run his first race on March 12th. Whenever I look at Uncle Mo's past performances, his most "similar" past performances are those of his sire Indian Charlie.
Indian Charlie, ran one race as a Juvenile winning a maiden race by 12 lengths at Delmar. Uncle Mo broke his Maiden by 14 lengths at Saratoga. Indian Charlie won his 2nd race by 9 lengths in a four horse field. Uncle Mo won his 2nd race by 4 lenghts in a 5-horse field. Indian Charlie won his 4th career start the Grade 1 Santa anita Derby by 2.5 lenghts. Uncle Mo won the BC Juvenile by 3 lengths in his 3rd start! Uncanny! Indian Charlie did not debut until February 22nd of his Sophomore season.
Fusaichi Pegasus debuted at three on February 19th winning a NW of 1 allowance.
One may have to re-evaluate the Derby chase. Maybe it's not about seasoning. Maybe it's about striking when the iron is hot!
Who would have thought that waiting on a horse until near March would have been out of the playbook from two of the "oldest" school horseman. Charlie Whittingham and Shug McGaughey!
So there may still be plenty of time for Cal Nation!
My gut instinct was to refer to the curse of 1882 and Apollo as the last Derby Winner, who didn't race as a Juvenile. But in recent years as horses become lightly raced, it is inevitable, that the winner of the Kentucky Derby in the next few years will not have raced as a Juvenile.
With that in mind I started searching past Derby winners to see exactly when did racing "jump the shark" into the current state of lightly raced activity?
Stop searching, you may not like the answer you are looking for, is a line from the original Planet of the Apes, and in this case, it may be true!
Is it possible the success from the top two horses of the sophomore class of 1989 may have contributed to this mess?
Let's enter the way-back machine with Mr. Peabody and Sherman back to the year 1989. Sunday Silence with just three starts as a Juvenile and only one win and no races debuts as a three year old on March 2, 1989. Winning by 4 lengths in 1:15 and 2/5! The Bald Eagle wheeled him back on March 19th in the San Felipe. Sir Charles then tightened the screws three weeks later winning the Santa Anita Derby by a widening 11 lengths. Three races in six weeks and did not run a route rate until March 19th.
Meanwhile back out East. Easy Goer was emerging from a winter of hibernation. After a 6 race juvenile campaign, Shug McGaughey didn't let Easy Goer out of the barn until March 4th 1989 winning the swale stakes by 8 lengths.
By those standards Cal Nation is a full month ahead of schedule!
Another interesting horse on the Derby trail this year is Machen. Never racing as a juvenile and heading towards the Risen Star Stakes on February 19th. His trainer is Neil Howard. Neil Howard trained Summer Squall to a 2nd place Derby finish in 1990. Summer Squall did not race until March 17th of his 3-year old season. With two races and three works in the last month, Machen is weeks ahead in conditioning that Summer Squall was in 1989. Also note that Summer Squall was unraced from August 26th of his Juvenile season to March 17th.
Hansel the 1991 Preakness winner debuted with a 11 length loss on February 23rd in 1990 in the Fountain of Youth. Hansel responded with a 3rd in the Florida Derby before winning the Jim Beam and then the Lexington Stakes.
Best Pal - 2nd in the 1991 Derby did not race as a sophomore until March 3, 1991!
D Wayne Lukas adds fuel to the fire with Timber Country waiting until March 4 for his debut in 1995. Grindstone came off the shelf in mid February 1996 and won the roses in May.
Uncle Mo is scheduled to run his first race on March 12th. Whenever I look at Uncle Mo's past performances, his most "similar" past performances are those of his sire Indian Charlie.
Indian Charlie, ran one race as a Juvenile winning a maiden race by 12 lengths at Delmar. Uncle Mo broke his Maiden by 14 lengths at Saratoga. Indian Charlie won his 2nd race by 9 lengths in a four horse field. Uncle Mo won his 2nd race by 4 lenghts in a 5-horse field. Indian Charlie won his 4th career start the Grade 1 Santa anita Derby by 2.5 lenghts. Uncle Mo won the BC Juvenile by 3 lengths in his 3rd start! Uncanny! Indian Charlie did not debut until February 22nd of his Sophomore season.
Fusaichi Pegasus debuted at three on February 19th winning a NW of 1 allowance.
One may have to re-evaluate the Derby chase. Maybe it's not about seasoning. Maybe it's about striking when the iron is hot!
Who would have thought that waiting on a horse until near March would have been out of the playbook from two of the "oldest" school horseman. Charlie Whittingham and Shug McGaughey!
So there may still be plenty of time for Cal Nation!
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Derby Prospectus February 2011
Now that Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow we can be sure that spring is just 6 weeks away. Let's take a look at the top contenders. Combining Pedigree, Performance and recent activity into our first rankings of the year.
#1: Machen: Quite simply he has been sensational in his first two starts in January. With recent races, a top pedigree, great connections this horse gets my top ranking. The only negative is the "Curse of 1882" no juvenile races in his past performances. Every other racing matrix shows a strong positive pattern for Machen.
In the past few year's one of the leading indicators of class has been a "breakaway" performance, a win by four lengths or greater has been a recent calling cards of winners Big Brown, Street Sense, Barbaro, Empire Maker who all won prep races by 8 lengths on their way to the Derby starting Gate. Machen has raced twice and recorded two five length wins. Both races overcoming slight trouble at the start of his races and turning the stretch run into a public workout. On top of the strong races. Machen sports two workouts between his maiden win and his allowance win on Saturday. The Performance side of the equation checks out.
Now for the Pedigree. From the top, this horse has a mix of speed and stamina influences on both side of the pedigree. Mixed in with some brilliance from his Dam. Ready's Gal who was a stakes winner and is the daughter of More than Ready who finished 4th in the Derby. His sire traces to the solid middle distance influence of Halo. The inbreeding on Machen is very interesting. Machen is inbred to full brothers Mr. Prospector and Search for Gold. Mr. Prospector was by Raise a Native out of a Gold Digger mare. He is found on the sire side of Machen. On the female tail, Search for Gold is found in the 4th generation of Ready's Gal. Search for Gold is by Raise a Native out of Gold Digger and was born in 1969, with Mr. Prospector being born in 1970. For pedigree purists this is a fun one and Courtlandt Farm pedigree gurus must have stayed up late at night to come up with this mix!
#2 To Honor and Serve: Gets second billing because of a stronger Juvenile foundation to work with. The best thing that happened to THAS was that he lost his first race. Since he is longer "undefeated" they can focus on winning races and peaking on Derby Day. This fetish with undefeated records in recent year's has caused many a horse to be "short" come the first Saturday in May. To Honor and Serve has 4 races under his belt. Two stakes races and a 9 furlong race as a juvenile. His recent workout activity is "slow" compared to the "super" trainer workout patterns, but this is old school Bill Mott at the helm, his most recent workout was 5 furlongs, strong foundation of workouts and races as a Juvenile bodes well for his ability to get back to top form quickly, which The Fountain of Youth is shaping up as a strong comeback race on February 26th.
The pedigree pundits are happy with the mix of A.P Indy, Deputy Minister, Nijinsky II, Secretariat and Spectacular Bid all found in his first four generations. In recent years they are basically your "classic" distance horses. A March 18th foal he has a solid mix of speed and stamina on both sides of the pedigree with a solid running style. My gut instinct says that he was "on the lead" as a juvenile in 3 of his 4 races because he was just plain faster than the competition. As a three-year old, look for him to be just off the pace and wear down the competition with 24 second quarters. Very exciting prospect.
#3 Uncle Mo: We want Mo! Mo activity, Mo workouts. With no races and only one workout. I'm leaving Mo #3 until he races as a sophomore. Nothing new to report here. His maiden breaker at Saratoga stole the show on Travers Day, his Breeder's Cup victory was as crisp and clean as the Churchill air that afternoon. Undefeated and maybe being "babied" just a wee bit so far this year.
Pedigree, mixed signals. Sire Indian Charlie has sired early-developing fast sprinters, who have been able to go fast up to a mile. Indian Charlie himself was lightly raced and finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and was trained by Bob Baffert. Uncle Mo's career so far is very similar to Indian Charlie. Very fast, highly publicized, bet down in every race, but ultimately just not a 12 furlong horse. Despite that, with a 108 speed figure as a juvenile and runs with a very methodical stride, has the ability to quickly accelerate and like To Honor and Serve I think he was just faster than everyone as a Juvenile and may ultimately be able to rate. Just getting into shape and very formidable. Let's not "crown" him just yet.
#4 Santiva: A personal favorite. Solid juvenile foundation, ran three strong races and broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in a stakes race. Can race on the lead or just off the pace. Has shown more of a grinding style so far and not a raw speed type, should "age" well and be a factor. Possibly the Risen Star or Fountain of Youth for his comeback race.
Pedigree, Giant's Causeway on Top, adds, speed, brilliance and a touch of class to a speedy pedigree on the bottom. Second Dam Safely Home was the dam of the brilliant sprinter Safely Kept. This pedigree is very classy and is a "racing" pedigree. Anxious to see him develop this year.
#5 Elite Alex: Only one start as a Juvenile. But his debut at Oaklawn Park as a Juvenile, left we wanting more. Left at the gate and trailing the field most of the way, "Alex" came late to party, while running wide and looking very competitive in the lane. Next up the Southwest for this son of Afleet Alex.
Pedigree: Afleet Alex was just a very good horse, short, long, lots of heart and class. Ran his race every time and carried his "track" with him, running strong races at every track. Gets stamina from Unbridled who is the sire of his dam Catch the Moment. Female side also includes distance influences Nureyev, Graustark and Secretariat. Very intrigued by Alex and thought about him in the 4th spot.
#6: Dialed In: Holy Bull was not a fluke. Stone Cold stretch run was an eye-opener and this followed a Maiden win that had everyone abuzz at Churchill Downs. Not much left to say. He's for real. Trained by Zito. Strong pedigree and recent races and workouts are perfectly spaced. Has the earnings, long-term it may have been better to "lose" and lose the undefeated" status, Nick Zito is already second guessing on whether to run in the Fountain of Youth or not. If he sits on the shelf too long, he will have to crank him up late.
#7 Cool Blue Red Hot: I like him. Got run into the ground by Soldat in the Gulfstream Slop. But that was after pressuring the pace the the whole way. Third quarter was a sub :24 quarter. His maiden win he came from 8 lengths off the pace. Look for him to go back to closing and will be extremely tough in his next race. This horse has a strong foundation. Recent works. Pedigree is a little light on the class side. But contains distance influences in A. P. Indy, Affirmed and Secretariat on both sides of the pedigree. Needs to step up in his next race.
#8 Soldat: May have "freaked" in the slop at Gulfstream. Has class and a strong Juvenile foundation. I'm still a believer in seasoning and losing races. Barbaro and Smarty Jones were both undefeated, but both were tested on their way to the Derby. Soldat has run in Graded Races, defeated top turf horses and has the earnings. Possible for the Fountain of Youth, does not need the lead and has a pedigree with "mud" and middle distance influences. Round Table on the female side answers some distance questions. Could get the carpet yanked out on him in the Fountain of Youth, or may ride the magic carpet all the way to Kentucky. Has the earnings and trainer and foundation. Needs to just stay the course.
Those are my eight most likely candidates to wear roses. I think after that group there is a large drop off to horses that have potential, or a strong pedigree, but not both and with recent activity. Here are some more names to chew on in the coming month.
J. P's Gusto: Like it or not has the earnings, has been working forwardly for a return in the San Vincente or Beverly Lewis. Looks like 10 furlongs may be too long, but is classy and is working strongly and has solid foundation of races.
Tapizar: Ran on the Santa Anita Speed Highway in early January. To be honest that track is so messed up with recent final times, I have no idea how to put in context. Garrett Gomez rides and has won two in a row. Son of Pulpit has potential.
The Factor: Baffert trained. Only one race. Has to pull a "Congaree" and get good also get good fast.
Runflatout: Can falt out run. Monster debut over the weekend. Sub 6 furlongs in under 1:08. Stupidly fast times out West. Very talented but only one super fast horse can emerge from out west, unless they spread out and go to Oaklawn, the Fairgrounds and Sunland.
Monzon: Next Up the Sam F Davis. Two for Two on dirt. Strong close at Aqueduct. Son of Thunder Gulch is a runner.
Brethren: The more talented brother of Super Saver. Has only two races. But his race at Churchill Downs in the fall was with a wide trip and showed a lot of "moxy" Like this horse but they may be rushing a little bit. Also goes in the Sam Davis a win in that race, puts him in the Bullseye Mix.
Indian Winter: Another son of Indian Charlie, this one on the West Coast. Jerry Hollendorfer trained. Won for fun in his most recent start. Next stretching out, has some experience.
Comma to The Top: Racing wise he belongs in the top four. Has been working fast and should be ready for whatever race they put him in on February 12th. Has class, but yet to run on traditional Dirt and may face too many other speed balls.
Boys at Tosconova: The negative is the distance breeding. Also only defeated a four horse field in the stakes win, was no match for Uncle Mo in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. The horse is being wisely rested. But I think most handicappers have their doubts on this horse. A look at the Louisville Courier Derby poll shows a lot of people leaving him out of their top 10, which is unusual since he has the earnings. I think he is this year's "Wizard of Oz" horse, once you pull away the curtain....
#1: Machen: Quite simply he has been sensational in his first two starts in January. With recent races, a top pedigree, great connections this horse gets my top ranking. The only negative is the "Curse of 1882" no juvenile races in his past performances. Every other racing matrix shows a strong positive pattern for Machen.
In the past few year's one of the leading indicators of class has been a "breakaway" performance, a win by four lengths or greater has been a recent calling cards of winners Big Brown, Street Sense, Barbaro, Empire Maker who all won prep races by 8 lengths on their way to the Derby starting Gate. Machen has raced twice and recorded two five length wins. Both races overcoming slight trouble at the start of his races and turning the stretch run into a public workout. On top of the strong races. Machen sports two workouts between his maiden win and his allowance win on Saturday. The Performance side of the equation checks out.
Now for the Pedigree. From the top, this horse has a mix of speed and stamina influences on both side of the pedigree. Mixed in with some brilliance from his Dam. Ready's Gal who was a stakes winner and is the daughter of More than Ready who finished 4th in the Derby. His sire traces to the solid middle distance influence of Halo. The inbreeding on Machen is very interesting. Machen is inbred to full brothers Mr. Prospector and Search for Gold. Mr. Prospector was by Raise a Native out of a Gold Digger mare. He is found on the sire side of Machen. On the female tail, Search for Gold is found in the 4th generation of Ready's Gal. Search for Gold is by Raise a Native out of Gold Digger and was born in 1969, with Mr. Prospector being born in 1970. For pedigree purists this is a fun one and Courtlandt Farm pedigree gurus must have stayed up late at night to come up with this mix!
#2 To Honor and Serve: Gets second billing because of a stronger Juvenile foundation to work with. The best thing that happened to THAS was that he lost his first race. Since he is longer "undefeated" they can focus on winning races and peaking on Derby Day. This fetish with undefeated records in recent year's has caused many a horse to be "short" come the first Saturday in May. To Honor and Serve has 4 races under his belt. Two stakes races and a 9 furlong race as a juvenile. His recent workout activity is "slow" compared to the "super" trainer workout patterns, but this is old school Bill Mott at the helm, his most recent workout was 5 furlongs, strong foundation of workouts and races as a Juvenile bodes well for his ability to get back to top form quickly, which The Fountain of Youth is shaping up as a strong comeback race on February 26th.
The pedigree pundits are happy with the mix of A.P Indy, Deputy Minister, Nijinsky II, Secretariat and Spectacular Bid all found in his first four generations. In recent years they are basically your "classic" distance horses. A March 18th foal he has a solid mix of speed and stamina on both sides of the pedigree with a solid running style. My gut instinct says that he was "on the lead" as a juvenile in 3 of his 4 races because he was just plain faster than the competition. As a three-year old, look for him to be just off the pace and wear down the competition with 24 second quarters. Very exciting prospect.
#3 Uncle Mo: We want Mo! Mo activity, Mo workouts. With no races and only one workout. I'm leaving Mo #3 until he races as a sophomore. Nothing new to report here. His maiden breaker at Saratoga stole the show on Travers Day, his Breeder's Cup victory was as crisp and clean as the Churchill air that afternoon. Undefeated and maybe being "babied" just a wee bit so far this year.
Pedigree, mixed signals. Sire Indian Charlie has sired early-developing fast sprinters, who have been able to go fast up to a mile. Indian Charlie himself was lightly raced and finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and was trained by Bob Baffert. Uncle Mo's career so far is very similar to Indian Charlie. Very fast, highly publicized, bet down in every race, but ultimately just not a 12 furlong horse. Despite that, with a 108 speed figure as a juvenile and runs with a very methodical stride, has the ability to quickly accelerate and like To Honor and Serve I think he was just faster than everyone as a Juvenile and may ultimately be able to rate. Just getting into shape and very formidable. Let's not "crown" him just yet.
#4 Santiva: A personal favorite. Solid juvenile foundation, ran three strong races and broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in a stakes race. Can race on the lead or just off the pace. Has shown more of a grinding style so far and not a raw speed type, should "age" well and be a factor. Possibly the Risen Star or Fountain of Youth for his comeback race.
Pedigree, Giant's Causeway on Top, adds, speed, brilliance and a touch of class to a speedy pedigree on the bottom. Second Dam Safely Home was the dam of the brilliant sprinter Safely Kept. This pedigree is very classy and is a "racing" pedigree. Anxious to see him develop this year.
#5 Elite Alex: Only one start as a Juvenile. But his debut at Oaklawn Park as a Juvenile, left we wanting more. Left at the gate and trailing the field most of the way, "Alex" came late to party, while running wide and looking very competitive in the lane. Next up the Southwest for this son of Afleet Alex.
Pedigree: Afleet Alex was just a very good horse, short, long, lots of heart and class. Ran his race every time and carried his "track" with him, running strong races at every track. Gets stamina from Unbridled who is the sire of his dam Catch the Moment. Female side also includes distance influences Nureyev, Graustark and Secretariat. Very intrigued by Alex and thought about him in the 4th spot.
#6: Dialed In: Holy Bull was not a fluke. Stone Cold stretch run was an eye-opener and this followed a Maiden win that had everyone abuzz at Churchill Downs. Not much left to say. He's for real. Trained by Zito. Strong pedigree and recent races and workouts are perfectly spaced. Has the earnings, long-term it may have been better to "lose" and lose the undefeated" status, Nick Zito is already second guessing on whether to run in the Fountain of Youth or not. If he sits on the shelf too long, he will have to crank him up late.
#7 Cool Blue Red Hot: I like him. Got run into the ground by Soldat in the Gulfstream Slop. But that was after pressuring the pace the the whole way. Third quarter was a sub :24 quarter. His maiden win he came from 8 lengths off the pace. Look for him to go back to closing and will be extremely tough in his next race. This horse has a strong foundation. Recent works. Pedigree is a little light on the class side. But contains distance influences in A. P. Indy, Affirmed and Secretariat on both sides of the pedigree. Needs to step up in his next race.
#8 Soldat: May have "freaked" in the slop at Gulfstream. Has class and a strong Juvenile foundation. I'm still a believer in seasoning and losing races. Barbaro and Smarty Jones were both undefeated, but both were tested on their way to the Derby. Soldat has run in Graded Races, defeated top turf horses and has the earnings. Possible for the Fountain of Youth, does not need the lead and has a pedigree with "mud" and middle distance influences. Round Table on the female side answers some distance questions. Could get the carpet yanked out on him in the Fountain of Youth, or may ride the magic carpet all the way to Kentucky. Has the earnings and trainer and foundation. Needs to just stay the course.
Those are my eight most likely candidates to wear roses. I think after that group there is a large drop off to horses that have potential, or a strong pedigree, but not both and with recent activity. Here are some more names to chew on in the coming month.
J. P's Gusto: Like it or not has the earnings, has been working forwardly for a return in the San Vincente or Beverly Lewis. Looks like 10 furlongs may be too long, but is classy and is working strongly and has solid foundation of races.
Tapizar: Ran on the Santa Anita Speed Highway in early January. To be honest that track is so messed up with recent final times, I have no idea how to put in context. Garrett Gomez rides and has won two in a row. Son of Pulpit has potential.
The Factor: Baffert trained. Only one race. Has to pull a "Congaree" and get good also get good fast.
Runflatout: Can falt out run. Monster debut over the weekend. Sub 6 furlongs in under 1:08. Stupidly fast times out West. Very talented but only one super fast horse can emerge from out west, unless they spread out and go to Oaklawn, the Fairgrounds and Sunland.
Monzon: Next Up the Sam F Davis. Two for Two on dirt. Strong close at Aqueduct. Son of Thunder Gulch is a runner.
Brethren: The more talented brother of Super Saver. Has only two races. But his race at Churchill Downs in the fall was with a wide trip and showed a lot of "moxy" Like this horse but they may be rushing a little bit. Also goes in the Sam Davis a win in that race, puts him in the Bullseye Mix.
Indian Winter: Another son of Indian Charlie, this one on the West Coast. Jerry Hollendorfer trained. Won for fun in his most recent start. Next stretching out, has some experience.
Comma to The Top: Racing wise he belongs in the top four. Has been working fast and should be ready for whatever race they put him in on February 12th. Has class, but yet to run on traditional Dirt and may face too many other speed balls.
Boys at Tosconova: The negative is the distance breeding. Also only defeated a four horse field in the stakes win, was no match for Uncle Mo in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. The horse is being wisely rested. But I think most handicappers have their doubts on this horse. A look at the Louisville Courier Derby poll shows a lot of people leaving him out of their top 10, which is unusual since he has the earnings. I think he is this year's "Wizard of Oz" horse, once you pull away the curtain....
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