Animal Kingdom dominated the derby off slow fractions. His main "edge" going into the Derby was that he was one of the few horses who could run 10 furlongs. I see no reason that Dialed In can reverse that edge. The new "blood" looks interesting and that may be the way to play the Trifecta's and Superfectas. Fast Track: Animal Kingdom. Straight and Strong and make things real interesting in the Belmont.
The Selection: Animal Kingdom
Friday, May 20, 2011
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Preakness Questions
Fourteen horses have passed the entry box for the Preakness Stakes. With Post Positions drawn, here are some of the top questions for each entry.
Astrology: Is he fast enough. Been highly regarded since his 2 year old win at Saratoga. With just two starts this year. Still could be on the improve. Chased a fast pace with a mid-race move at Sunland. Ran evenly in the slop, out kicked by Adios Charlie in the final furlong in the Withers. Recent work tab is ok. Biggest plus is he has a good post and should be able to sit off the speed and make his mid-race move. Biggest negative, hasn't shown the closing kick to finish off top horses in the past.
Norman Asbjornson: Has worked strong one mile gallops all spring. Seems fresh and healthy and has gotten his share of the money in most races. Needs to run faster to win the race. Local connections add to the appeal.
King Congie: Turf to Poly and now trying the dirt. The King has lots of interesting angles. A "partnership" horse won the Derby, with Animal Kingdom, West Point has this "partner" horse. Robbie Abarado jumps on board and he was scheduled to ride Animal Kingdom in the Derby before being taken off the mount. This horse has run on the turf, but doesn't necessarily have "turf" breeding, Badge of Silver and End Sweep are "traditional" dirt sires. Bluegrass stakes was run with a slow pace and finished a head behind. Faced two of the strong speed figures in his 2 year old races, Uncle Mo and Fort Hughes. Not without a shot.
Flashpoint: Have a feeling this horse will receive some support at the windows. Broke slow in the Florida Derby and raced wide. Has run fast and this horses should be the Speed of the speed on the engine and on the pace from the bell.
"Shackleford" Derby effort may have been "pace" biased. Ran on the lead with slow fractions, but the track played kindly to wide sweeping moves and horses off the pace on both Oaks and Derby day. Distance may still not be to his liking. Expecting a regression.
Sway Away: Gets Garret Gomez after an ill-timed ride by Pval in the Arkansas Derby, could be one run closer, or could be just learning to time his move. Strong recent workouts including six furlongs in 1:11 and 3/5 on May 7th at Churchill Downs.
Midnight Interlude: Ran evenly in Kentucky. Strong move on Monday in slop, sits a better trip in the Baltimore and may still have some improvement in him. New jock Garcia will probably be more aggressive and should get a clear run from the 2nd "tier" of horses.
Dance City: This is the "wise" guy horse! The kiss of death. His Arkansas Derby was huge, but may have been misleading inherited the lead after JP Gusto sent ridiculous fractions.
Mucho Macho Man: 3M brings it to the house every time, 6 week layoff may have hurt him in Kentucky, was ridden conservatively by Maragh and finished strong, smaller filed and seems to run all day long, he will make his move sooner on Saturday.
Dialed In: Zito still high on this horse. Never been a fan, seems like a one run horse, small, efficient horse, wins when able to pass a horse quickly, don't see him being able to grind out a win. Will have to make decisive burst and will still be last 1/2 way down the stretch in Baltimore, probably with quicker fractions.
Animal Kingdom: Dominating Derby win, did experience a clean trip. Finished like a horse with lots of upside. Should be sitting around 7th and will try to make his move just like in Kentucky, no timed work in the past 14 days, although a nice gallop on Wednesday.
Isn't He Perfect. Closer has ran in some tough stakes races. New jockey in Edgar Prado may be able to sit back and make a run into the strong fractions. Not a auto-toss by any means, expect a good effort on Saturday.
Concealed Identity: Edmond Gaudet at 80 years old has a Preakness Starter. Won the Tesio stakes as his prep into the race, but seems to be peaking at the right time with back to back wins. Not a fan of the 13 hole.
Mr. Commons: Not a good post position. Strong works, including some distance and some speed works. Ran evenly in the Santa Anita Derby. First time in career facing a double digit field, which can be a daunting task for a lot of horses. Shipping from the west coast and three seven furlong works. May appreciate getting off the "Santa Anita Highway" from this winter.
Questions:
Does Animal Kingdom improve or regress off the Derby: In recent years, very few horses have stayed even. Funny Cide and War Emblem improved. Super Saver last year was listless and ran a very dull race.
The New shooters: Breeding, Pedigree and Running style point to Astrology, Sway Away and Mr. Commons.
Experience: Midnight Interlude will probably run better and Mucho Macho Man is capable of putting in a stronger run.
Possibly Regressing: Shackleford and Dialed In. The Shack has a very funky stride and Dialed In was worked only once in five weeks before the Derby. No works since the Derby, if these are the new training methods, i'm not a fan of the new training methods.
Flashpoint: Overbet Question Mark?
Time to hit the Replays and solve the puzzle. Back with final selections tomorrow.
Black Eyed Suan Stakes: Look for Royal Delta to Romp!
Astrology: Is he fast enough. Been highly regarded since his 2 year old win at Saratoga. With just two starts this year. Still could be on the improve. Chased a fast pace with a mid-race move at Sunland. Ran evenly in the slop, out kicked by Adios Charlie in the final furlong in the Withers. Recent work tab is ok. Biggest plus is he has a good post and should be able to sit off the speed and make his mid-race move. Biggest negative, hasn't shown the closing kick to finish off top horses in the past.
Norman Asbjornson: Has worked strong one mile gallops all spring. Seems fresh and healthy and has gotten his share of the money in most races. Needs to run faster to win the race. Local connections add to the appeal.
King Congie: Turf to Poly and now trying the dirt. The King has lots of interesting angles. A "partnership" horse won the Derby, with Animal Kingdom, West Point has this "partner" horse. Robbie Abarado jumps on board and he was scheduled to ride Animal Kingdom in the Derby before being taken off the mount. This horse has run on the turf, but doesn't necessarily have "turf" breeding, Badge of Silver and End Sweep are "traditional" dirt sires. Bluegrass stakes was run with a slow pace and finished a head behind. Faced two of the strong speed figures in his 2 year old races, Uncle Mo and Fort Hughes. Not without a shot.
Flashpoint: Have a feeling this horse will receive some support at the windows. Broke slow in the Florida Derby and raced wide. Has run fast and this horses should be the Speed of the speed on the engine and on the pace from the bell.
"Shackleford" Derby effort may have been "pace" biased. Ran on the lead with slow fractions, but the track played kindly to wide sweeping moves and horses off the pace on both Oaks and Derby day. Distance may still not be to his liking. Expecting a regression.
Sway Away: Gets Garret Gomez after an ill-timed ride by Pval in the Arkansas Derby, could be one run closer, or could be just learning to time his move. Strong recent workouts including six furlongs in 1:11 and 3/5 on May 7th at Churchill Downs.
Midnight Interlude: Ran evenly in Kentucky. Strong move on Monday in slop, sits a better trip in the Baltimore and may still have some improvement in him. New jock Garcia will probably be more aggressive and should get a clear run from the 2nd "tier" of horses.
Dance City: This is the "wise" guy horse! The kiss of death. His Arkansas Derby was huge, but may have been misleading inherited the lead after JP Gusto sent ridiculous fractions.
Mucho Macho Man: 3M brings it to the house every time, 6 week layoff may have hurt him in Kentucky, was ridden conservatively by Maragh and finished strong, smaller filed and seems to run all day long, he will make his move sooner on Saturday.
Dialed In: Zito still high on this horse. Never been a fan, seems like a one run horse, small, efficient horse, wins when able to pass a horse quickly, don't see him being able to grind out a win. Will have to make decisive burst and will still be last 1/2 way down the stretch in Baltimore, probably with quicker fractions.
Animal Kingdom: Dominating Derby win, did experience a clean trip. Finished like a horse with lots of upside. Should be sitting around 7th and will try to make his move just like in Kentucky, no timed work in the past 14 days, although a nice gallop on Wednesday.
Isn't He Perfect. Closer has ran in some tough stakes races. New jockey in Edgar Prado may be able to sit back and make a run into the strong fractions. Not a auto-toss by any means, expect a good effort on Saturday.
Concealed Identity: Edmond Gaudet at 80 years old has a Preakness Starter. Won the Tesio stakes as his prep into the race, but seems to be peaking at the right time with back to back wins. Not a fan of the 13 hole.
Mr. Commons: Not a good post position. Strong works, including some distance and some speed works. Ran evenly in the Santa Anita Derby. First time in career facing a double digit field, which can be a daunting task for a lot of horses. Shipping from the west coast and three seven furlong works. May appreciate getting off the "Santa Anita Highway" from this winter.
Questions:
Does Animal Kingdom improve or regress off the Derby: In recent years, very few horses have stayed even. Funny Cide and War Emblem improved. Super Saver last year was listless and ran a very dull race.
The New shooters: Breeding, Pedigree and Running style point to Astrology, Sway Away and Mr. Commons.
Experience: Midnight Interlude will probably run better and Mucho Macho Man is capable of putting in a stronger run.
Possibly Regressing: Shackleford and Dialed In. The Shack has a very funky stride and Dialed In was worked only once in five weeks before the Derby. No works since the Derby, if these are the new training methods, i'm not a fan of the new training methods.
Flashpoint: Overbet Question Mark?
Time to hit the Replays and solve the puzzle. Back with final selections tomorrow.
Black Eyed Suan Stakes: Look for Royal Delta to Romp!
Sunday, May 15, 2011
Preakness Ramblings
Entries will be drawn on Wednesday. With a full field of 14 horses expected, the dreaded 13 and 14 posts could prove not kind to the horses who draw them.
More speed is expected in the Preakness. Flashpoint and Dance City will ensure an honest pace and Shackleford will have to rate off the speed, or improve his half mile fraction significantly.
Animal Kingdom will train up to the Preakness with no published works. Graham Motion has trained this way for many years. But still feel it's not the best of signs to "gallop" to the race with no timed works.
Sway Away has been working strongly, his mid race move in the Arkansas Derby was impressive.
Bob Baffert has decided to enter Midnight Interlude, who did not run a bad Derby, and don't forget this horse also has more speed than he showed in Louisville, interesting horse at a nice price.
Astrology, has been overlooked, does not have the raw speed of some of the top horses, but the Derby was not won with speed either. A strong grinder and fresh, Astrology has the pedigree and running style to put in a good run.
Animal Kingdom received a 103 Beyer speed Figure for his Derby Victory. I think this number is a little inflated it may be more of a "98" which puts him just slightly ahead. His pedigree and improvement still points that he should be sitting on a big race in Baltimore.
Mucho Macho Man fires his race every time and should get first run on the speed. A good post and well timed move may have him right in the mix come the turn.
With slow fractions in the Derby there was not a lot of separation in the field, the fact that Santiva, Master of Hounds, Mucho Macho Man, and Animal Kingdom all closed showed that the race came down down to trip and getting the distance.
The best bet on the Card may be the double starting with the Preaknes. In the Derby 20-1 Animal Kingdom with 8-1 Good Lord payed $790. the Daily Double with Get Storm in a 13 horses at 7-1 with Animal Kingdom, paid $350.00.
More speed is expected in the Preakness. Flashpoint and Dance City will ensure an honest pace and Shackleford will have to rate off the speed, or improve his half mile fraction significantly.
Animal Kingdom will train up to the Preakness with no published works. Graham Motion has trained this way for many years. But still feel it's not the best of signs to "gallop" to the race with no timed works.
Sway Away has been working strongly, his mid race move in the Arkansas Derby was impressive.
Bob Baffert has decided to enter Midnight Interlude, who did not run a bad Derby, and don't forget this horse also has more speed than he showed in Louisville, interesting horse at a nice price.
Astrology, has been overlooked, does not have the raw speed of some of the top horses, but the Derby was not won with speed either. A strong grinder and fresh, Astrology has the pedigree and running style to put in a good run.
Animal Kingdom received a 103 Beyer speed Figure for his Derby Victory. I think this number is a little inflated it may be more of a "98" which puts him just slightly ahead. His pedigree and improvement still points that he should be sitting on a big race in Baltimore.
Mucho Macho Man fires his race every time and should get first run on the speed. A good post and well timed move may have him right in the mix come the turn.
With slow fractions in the Derby there was not a lot of separation in the field, the fact that Santiva, Master of Hounds, Mucho Macho Man, and Animal Kingdom all closed showed that the race came down down to trip and getting the distance.
The best bet on the Card may be the double starting with the Preaknes. In the Derby 20-1 Animal Kingdom with 8-1 Good Lord payed $790. the Daily Double with Get Storm in a 13 horses at 7-1 with Animal Kingdom, paid $350.00.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Post Derby
Animal Kingdom proved very strong on Saturday. Here are some thoughts as I watch the replays and read some of the post chat wraps.
Watch the NBC.com Blimp view of the race. Animal Kingdom had the "street sense" trip. Amazingly he never encountered any trouble or had to alter course in the 10 furlongs of the race, if he is stopped or steadied even once on the backstretch it changes the whole outcome of the race. Credit to the jockey, but soometimes things just happen.
For a 19 horse field, it was a well-behaved bunch. They all loaded in the gate without fanfare and a good honest trip for everyone.
The pace was fair for a 10 furlong race, but slow for a Kentucky Derby pace, in recent years fast paces have stopped many horses. This year's crop doesn't have any real "speed balls" the horses new to Pimlico don't offer any speed to that race as well.
Do we need any more proof that speed figures on the poly are a waste of time? I'm not sure if the Animal improved from a 94 to a 103. I think he may have run a 96 and everyone else regressed at the 10 furlong distance.
Nehro has run three strong races in six weeks. With this crop that is the most consistent everyone has been.
10 preps leading up to the derby and the non-favorite won. The Derby makes it eleven. I'm pretty sure the Preakness will make it twelve.
Animal Kingdom shows that a strong outcross of breeding may need what American racing needs to put some new "blood" in the classics. Four generations of German Breeding makes the Animal Kingdom, unique in his own crop.
As impressive as Animal Kingdom was while running wide, the race did play into someone making a strong outside move. The only horse who won on the lead on Saturday was the Baffert first time starter.
14 horses are going to line up in Marlyand, the the popularity of the Triple Crown continues, hopefully nice weather awaits as well.
Watch the NBC.com Blimp view of the race. Animal Kingdom had the "street sense" trip. Amazingly he never encountered any trouble or had to alter course in the 10 furlongs of the race, if he is stopped or steadied even once on the backstretch it changes the whole outcome of the race. Credit to the jockey, but soometimes things just happen.
For a 19 horse field, it was a well-behaved bunch. They all loaded in the gate without fanfare and a good honest trip for everyone.
The pace was fair for a 10 furlong race, but slow for a Kentucky Derby pace, in recent years fast paces have stopped many horses. This year's crop doesn't have any real "speed balls" the horses new to Pimlico don't offer any speed to that race as well.
Do we need any more proof that speed figures on the poly are a waste of time? I'm not sure if the Animal improved from a 94 to a 103. I think he may have run a 96 and everyone else regressed at the 10 furlong distance.
Nehro has run three strong races in six weeks. With this crop that is the most consistent everyone has been.
10 preps leading up to the derby and the non-favorite won. The Derby makes it eleven. I'm pretty sure the Preakness will make it twelve.
Animal Kingdom shows that a strong outcross of breeding may need what American racing needs to put some new "blood" in the classics. Four generations of German Breeding makes the Animal Kingdom, unique in his own crop.
As impressive as Animal Kingdom was while running wide, the race did play into someone making a strong outside move. The only horse who won on the lead on Saturday was the Baffert first time starter.
14 horses are going to line up in Marlyand, the the popularity of the Triple Crown continues, hopefully nice weather awaits as well.
Saturday, May 7, 2011
Animals Crackers
Chaos has ruled the Road to the Roses for 2011. With that in mind i'm leaning for the best bred horses to get the distance. All signs point to Animal Kingdom to emerge from the pack and strut some serious strides down the long Churchill Downs Stretch. Animal Kingdom has three generations of German Mares in his first six generations on the female side. The Broodmare sire Acatenango won 16 of 24 races and was three time German horse of the year. Blushing Groom, Nasrullah, Roberto and Northern Dancer all trace in the bloodlines. Racing wise this horse has shown talent in all four races. In his first race on the synthetic at Arlington Park, he was "outkicked" by Wilcox Inn. In his second start at Keeneland he wired a nine furlong race at 3/5. Five other races that day were won by closers, winning on the "poly" at Keeneland at nine furlongs and showed has has speed to contend. In his last race at Turfway park he made one long sustained run and won going going away. He is slower than some of these horses. I just think he will make one long sustained run and is very live in this spot. Half the field wants no part of 10 furlongs today.
Mucho Macho Man. Been trained old school fro this race with long gallops and two seven furlong works. Ran two nine furlong races as a juvenile.
Archarcharch: Goofy name is a in shape has been in training since December and has thrived the last two months. Another who should run all day.
Boxing those three horses with Shackleford who has been improving and will be sent hard. Shack may fade but may also be able to rate a little behind the speed. Fifth horse in the box is Santiva. Should sit a ground saving trip and goes poly to dirt. Throw out the last race.
Playing all five in Double and in pick threes.
Mucho Macho Man. Been trained old school fro this race with long gallops and two seven furlong works. Ran two nine furlong races as a juvenile.
Archarcharch: Goofy name is a in shape has been in training since December and has thrived the last two months. Another who should run all day.
Boxing those three horses with Shackleford who has been improving and will be sent hard. Shack may fade but may also be able to rate a little behind the speed. Fifth horse in the box is Santiva. Should sit a ground saving trip and goes poly to dirt. Throw out the last race.
Playing all five in Double and in pick threes.
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